Will Donald Trump Be The Next President?

[indefatigable]

hahahahaha

 

His fathers work ethic and starting from being an immigrant was far more powerful than Donalds rise to "billions".

 

"Only 1 million". right. Such a small amount.

 

Going from millions to "billions"(Yet to be proven), has a lot less systemic barriers than it does to go from 5$ to millions. When you are already a millionaire, you likely have a lot of social capital and connections that can help you make more money. Much different then when you have a modest bank account and little social capital.

 

When you have money, it is much easier to make more money than it is the other way around.  There's a reason why children of affluent families have it significantly easier and are able to "join the family business" in a way, and continue to develop new wealth. They are able to utilize capital to be able to make bigger power moves and more riskier decisions, to acquire even more wealth.  

 

When you have money, it is also easier to jump in on less risk investments that may simply just rely on a high-cost barrier to entrance. I.e. if a certain investment opportunity that is gauranteed to have a strong ROI - but you need to have the large amount of funds to be able to enter the bidding etc. 

 

 

 

 

 

This ^ - point number 2 in link:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/29/the-myth-and-the-reality-of-donald-trumps-business-empire/

 

(estimate he would have 6 billion if he just put his money from 1978 in the S&P index)

[canucks_14]

Ok how about you go and ask any millionaires how "easy" it is to become a billionaire. After you ask them tell me what they say.

I know a lot of wealthy people in Vancouver and everyone agrees it is not super hard to make a bit of money, but to actually make the jump to become a billionaire is like near impossible. There are lots of wealthy people in Vancouver but in terms of homegrown people there are only 2 billionaires in that entire city.

You will probably be a millionaire once you've worked as a physician for some period of time. Once you are, I'm sure you will easily become a billionaire because of all of the connections and social capital you have right? Tell me how that goes.

 

[JohnGrisham]

Ok how about you go and ask any millionaires how "easy" it is to become a billionaire. After you ask them tell me what they say.

 

I know a lot of wealthy people in Vancouver and everyone agrees it is not super hard to make a bit of money, but to actually make the jump to become a billionaire is like near impossible. There are lots of wealthy people in Vancouver but in terms of homegrown people there are only 2 billionaires in that entire city.

 

You will probably be a millionaire once you've worked as a physician for some period of time. Once you are, I'm sure you will easily become a billionaire because of all of the connections and social capital you have right? Tell me how that goes.

 

 

Just so we're clear, i didn't say it was easy to go from being a millionaire to a billionaire. I said it was relatively easier in many senses than going from being a "peasant" to being a millionaire.  It's a relative context and of course has time era contexts as well(current times, 1970s, 1900s etc). Being a millionaire in the 1970s in East Coast america and a millionaire in 2016 Vancouver is very, very different(where crackhouses sell for 1.5 million dollars). 

 

I don't think most physicians would be millionaires, i certainly won't.  Your comparison is also incorrect, as I would not have the same relevant connections and capital (med students who's first jobs is being residents aren't generally the kind of connections you need to develop a construction empire).

 

Also I don't classify having a million dollars as being a millionaire, so I guess Im not following the conventional definitions. I personally think someone who is a millionaire is someone with that amount of money in disposable income on a regular basis. Not tied up in non-liquid assets and earning potentials etc.

 

But feel free to keep idolizing trump and thinking he's some self-made billionaire. Without his fathers help and inheritance, he wouldn't have had the means to as easily get projects and leverage. Having his father as a backer, was instrumental and a necessity to even get the kind of loans needed for commercial development.  Another point is that a million dollars in 1970, in again a relative sense, would be more comparable to say 10-15 million dollars today (Inflation alone brings it up to about 7 million but then you also have to consider things such as purchasing power, leverage and relevance of the monetary sum in the context of the types of deals you need to make to generate wealth).

 

Lastly, unpredictable market trends and dumb luck play just as much a role in these things as talent do. It's just so often that egotistical people who brand themselves generally don't attribute their success to market forces and being at the right place at the right time - but rather their innate skills and honed expertise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JohnGrisham]

I'll leave this here for you:

http://digitalsynopsis.com/inspiration/privileged-kids-on-a-plate-pencilsword-toby-morris/

 

[rmorelan]

This ^ - point number 2 in link:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/02/29/the-myth-and-the-reality-of-donald-trumps-business-empire/

 

(estimate he would have 6 billion if he just put his money from 1978 in the S&P index)

 

it is a bit messy as we don't know exactly how much his inheritance was and plus he ran his father' company for many years so his inheritance was also a part of his own work.

 

we do know it wasn't a small amount of money mind you - and of course that was a major boost. The S&P argument is less convincing when consider what more likely was is true "inheritance" before his efforts expanded things.

 

Plus the S&P argument assumes he just would have stuck the money in the market and spent none of it in basically 40 years. He however has X dollars (again estimates vary - and he is probably over estimating because he is marketing - his brand in part is his wealth). However he is not just earning money - he is spending it. Even if he has exactly or close to the S&P value he also has been living like a king for decades.

 

there is a lot of people coming at it from both sides of course - more balanced approach? He is still a very successful businessman, that has had some failures but also some major successes. The real question is whether "business sense" is actually directly transferable to politics. Business people often think it does - but I wonder if that is a major simplification. Being a good "manager" is probably a very useful skill but most people that start major businesses are a lot better at being a good marketer and visionary than the actual lower down nuts and bolts. It is complex I think

[rmorelan]

I'll leave this here for you:

 

http://digitalsynopsis.com/inspiration/privileged-kids-on-a-plate-pencilsword-toby-morris/

 

 

 

ah yes sociology in action Starting from a poorer social class is an anchor for sure.

 

Interestingly roughly 80% of all millionaires make that money in a single generation - that is good news because it means there is still some mobility. That means while class barriers do exist for sure - no question - inheritance is not the primary way major wealth is made. It is actually not unlike the comic - it will get you a good job and a good education. You want to actually be "rich" then a good job though is not enough.

[JohnGrisham]

it is a bit messy as we don't know exactly how much his inheritance was and plus he ran his father' company for many years so his inheritance was also a part of his own work.

 

we do know it wasn't a small amount of money mind you - and of course that was a major boost. The S&P argument is less convincing when consider what more likely was is true "inheritance" before his efforts expanded things.

 

Plus the S&P argument assumes he just would have stuck the money in the market and spent none of it in basically 40 years. He however has X dollars (again estimates vary - and he is probably over estimating because he is marketing - his brand in part is his wealth). However he is not just earning money - he is spending it. Even if he has exactly or close to the S&P value he also has been living like a king for decades.

 

there is a lot of people coming at it from both sides of course - more balanced approach? He is still a very successful businessman, that has had some failures but also some major successes. The real question is whether "business sense" is actually directly transferable to politics. Business people often think it does - but I wonder if that is a major simplification. Being a good "manager" is probably a very useful skill but most people that start major businesses are a lot better at being a good marketer and visionary than the actual lower down nuts and bolts. It is complex I think

Great points.

 

I personally don't doubt his many business successes, he definitely is not stupid, don't get me wrong. He took risks and some risks worked out - others not so much. While I think many of his claims are exaggerated and inflated, he is where he is nonetheless.

 

I just despise his  obvious omissions and lack of relativistic context of his fathers wealth in not only money but experience and leadership. 

 

He is obviously a good business man, but he probably would not be anywhere close to where he is now without his fathers help.

 

The funny thing is, when you have a lot of money, it becomes easier to shelter money and be creative with accounting through investments. Talking to a close friend who's a financial advisor, it amazes me the types of things you can do to manipulate(legally) your cash flows and money...to not only ensure you don't have to lose as much of your money but also generate more.  This is a big contributor to generate further wealth, when you already have the business acumen to generate it.  Not to mention, that when you have a big brand name, other businesses and individuals tend to want to associate with you by throwing contributions(gifts, services, etc etc) at you - so that they too can generate intangible wealth  through marketing and branding.

 

 

Maybe i'm just a cynic, but I get disgusted a lot these days with social media branding and self promotion - mostly when the people behind it don't have much substance. I'm all for promoting yourself or your product when there is a need or a demonstrable "oompf" factor. The value of money in many ways in my opinion has depreciated so much.    

[indefatigable]

it is a bit messy as we don't know exactly how much his inheritance was and plus he ran his father' company for many years so his inheritance was also a part of his own work.

 

The estimate of inheritance from the article was 40 million in 1974 dollars (roughly 200 million today).  His dad was "one of the richest people in America".  

 

we do know it wasn't a small amount of money mind you - and of course that was a major boost. The S&P argument is less convincing when consider what more likely was is true "inheritance" before his efforts expanded things.

 

"He told the New York Times he was worth 200 million in 1976, which would be worth 12 billion today" [if he had put the money in an index fund]

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/09/03/if-donald-trump-followed-this-really-basic-advice-hed-be-a-lot-richer/?tid=a_inl

 

Plus the S&P argument assumes he just would have stuck the money in the market and spent none of it in basically 40 years. He however has X dollars (again estimates vary - and he is probably over estimating because he is marketing - his brand in part is his wealth). However he is not just earning money - he is spending it. Even if he has exactly or close to the S&P value he also has been living like a king for decades.

 

Depending on the estimates, he has earned far less than the general return available to any 1970s investor, taking the simplest investment strategy possible.

 

there is a lot of people coming at it from both sides of course - more balanced approach? He is still a very successful businessman, that has had some failures but also some major successes. The real question is whether "business sense" is actually directly transferable to politics. Business people often think it does - but I wonder if that is a major simplification. Being a good "manager" is probably a very useful skill but most people that start major businesses are a lot better at being a good marketer and visionary than the actual lower down nuts and bolts. It is complex I think

 

That's where the doubt is - did he just inherit a lot of money (which would have grown larger with S&P plain investing) or did he actually add value - did he create wealth?  One thing is certain is that both Trump and his father used federal subsidies and taxpayer dollars to build their  wealth.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/09/03/if-donald-trump-followed-this-really-basic-advice-hed-be-a-lot-richer/?tid=a_inl

 

Edit: At best, in the early years he made some good moves (up until 1978).  There could be many factors for that - rising real estate market, etc...  However it's pretty clear that after that he really didn't do anything exceptional compared to other investors or even a "Main Street Investor").

[indefatigable]

I'll leave this here for you:

 

http://digitalsynopsis.com/inspiration/privileged-kids-on-a-plate-pencilsword-toby-morris/

 

 

 

Unfortunately, I've seen children from the most privileged background experience serious adversity.  I'm not saying having SES isn't advantageous, but home life plays such a key role in people's development - and a loving (but less well-off) family may actually provide better care.

[JohnGrisham]

Unfortunately, I've seen children from the most privileged background experience serious adversity.  I'm not saying having SES isn't advantageous, but home life plays such a key role in people's development - and a loving (but less well-off) family may actually provide better care.

I agree completely - more so referencing in a general sense.

[canucks_14]

Definitely don't idolize trump but he is a self made guy. He took his father's business in Queens and ended up becoming the biggest real estate developer in NYC, which his father was not. I believe these are the facts.

[indefatigable]

Definitely don't idolize trump but he is a self made guy. He took his father's business in Queens and ended up becoming the biggest real estate developer in NYC, which his father was not. I believe these are the facts.

 

His dad was possibly one of the richest people in the US and enforced racial divisions in his apartments (using federal subsidies to build them).  The more I read about the Trumps, the worse it gets.   

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Trump

[rmorelan]

His dad was possibly one of the richest people in the US and enforced racial divisions in his apartments (using federal subsidies to build them).  The more I read about the Trumps, the worse it gets.   

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Trump

 

oh they took advantage of everything they could to pull ahead. They certainly weren't alone ( and unfortunately not much has changed in that regard, cough, bank bailout, cough).

[rmorelan]

Edit: At best, in the early years he made some good moves (up until 1978).  There could be many factors for that - rising real estate market, etc...  However it's pretty clear that after that he really didn't do anything exceptional compared to other investors or even a "Main Street Investor").

 

well I wouldn't go that far I mean first off the s&P 500 are the top companies in America. You are saying that he did a bit worse to the 500 biggest companies in the country over a 40 year period. I don't think that actually is all that bad (plus again he is also spending a lot of money - we are talking about someone whose sense of style would be best described as err "excessive". The man burns though wealth in a fashion that horrifies me).

 

I don't trust what he said his net worth was at any point along this process. That is part of the problem - at best he routinely over estimates it. At worst he is flat out lying. No one is auditing him routinely ha.

 

I think though we aren't that far off in our opinion of his wealth building abilities though(?) - I guess my main point though is really who cares? The idea that even if he is successful that business  it implies equal success in politics is my main problem.

 

In business you can be ruthless - you can destroy your opponents business - you can actually "win" as it were. In fact that is often your goal I guess. In politics that isn't the idea at all. Mr. Trump doesn't exactly come off as someone with diplomatic skills. You cannot flash and awe political problems away - and you cannot "win" permanently against a particular political party either in a democracy. You cannot be supremely ruthless - as yes you are the commander and chief but you don't have absolute power . you actually have to work with other people ha. There is overlap in many areas but we are talking about someone that has never held public office suddenly running the entire country.

[freewheeler]

Waiting for Donald Trump's foreign policy

 

[indefatigable]

well I wouldn't go that far I mean first off the s&P 500 are the top companies in America. You are saying that he did a bit worse to the 500 biggest companies in the country over a 40 year period. I don't think that actually is all that bad (plus again he is also spending a lot of money - we are talking about someone whose sense of style would be best described as err "excessive". The man burns though wealth in a fashion that horrifies me).

 

I don't trust what he said his net worth was at any point along this process. That is part of the problem - at best he routinely over estimates it. At worst he is flat out lying. No one is auditing him routinely ha.

 

I think though we aren't that far off in our opinion of his wealth building abilities though(?) - I guess my main point though is really who cares? The idea that even if he is successful that business it implies equal success in politics is my main problem.

 

In business you can be ruthless - you can destroy your opponents business - you can actually "win" as it were. In fact that is often your goal I guess. In politics that isn't the idea at all. Mr. Trump doesn't exactly come off as someone with diplomatic skills. You cannot flash and awe political problems away - and you cannot "win" permanently against a particular political party either in a democracy. You cannot be supremely ruthless - as yes you are the commander and chief but you don't have absolute power . you actually have to work with other people ha. There is overlap in many areas but we are talking about someone that has never held public office suddenly running the entire country.

The business to politics analogy fails on so many levels - he admittedly has had four bankruptcies and is extremely xenophobic - doesn't work on the national or international scale. At one point - some of the republicans actually had good policies - theodore Roosevelt was a conservationist, trust-buster, enacted FDA and had support of universal health care advocates (opposed by AMA at the time ). Unfortunately this era is a reversion to cult of personality, narcissism - no wonder Trump retweets Mussolini - he can see the similarities. At this point , I think I'm just going to stand back and hope Americans have common sense as Obama put it... Must stay focused for some time

[rmorelan]

Waiting for Donald Trump's foreign policy

 

 

oh like convincing mexico to build a wall across the border........and they would do that because(?)

 

and the one reason I laugh at the idea is simply historically nations that build walls across their borders are generally on the decline. They are expensive, stupid and really aren't going to really slow anything.

[murrin]

oh like convincing mexico to build a wall across the border........and they would do that because(?)

 

and the one reason I laugh at the idea is simply historically nations that build walls across their borders are generally on the decline. They are expensive, stupid and really aren't going to really slow anything.

 

 

I think Trump got the Mongolians and Mexicans confused and thinks the USA is being invaded on horses.

[rmorelan]

I think Trump got the Mongolians and Mexicans confused and thinks the USA is being invaded on horses.

 

ha the old "China" will pay for it. China has even less reason to pay for it than Mexico.

 

the entire thing is so stupid.

[leviathan306]

God bless this man.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aWejiXvd-P8

[leviathan306]

Go fo 0:40 on the world trade center part.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Be-6viOoTsA

 

Donald trump has my support.

[leviathan306]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5NsrwH9I9vE

(Go to 0:58)

 

Definitely no doubt he would be tough on ISIS.

[FeministKilljoy]

Go fo 0:40 on the world trade center part.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Be-6viOoTsA

 

Donald trump has my support.

 

 

What about the way he treats women/visible minorities?

[Bambi]

Thankfully, we live in Canada and have Trudeau.

[rmorelan]

Thankfully, we live in Canada and have Trudeau.

 

we are equally vulnerable to this type of politician (ahem Rob Ford.......)