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[BernieMac]

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[FeelingTheBern]

if there is anything I can tell you... don't look at the numbers/statistics, they really do not mean (please insert harsh term).

just keep swimming, just keep swimming, just keep swimming swimming swimming, what do we do? we swim swim

[VolumeOverload]

Don't know the numbers by heart, but that 522 includes ~100 OOP applicants that are competing for ~15 spots.  Last year, unlike previous years, all OOP spots were claimed leaving ~140 seats for IP.  Additionally, you need to factor in any Leaders in Medicine students who have finished their grad degrees and are starting the MD portion of the program.  This also cuts into available seats.  Lastly, I've heard from friends in upper years that fewer students are rejecting their U of C offers now as compared to before.

All things considered, the number for an OOP applicant will probably be somewhere between 30-40% after the interview.  Maybe less. 

That said, this whole calculating of percentages provides no meaningful insight into your chances of acceptance.  You may have just squeaked past cut offs or you may have scored well above them.  You might be offered admission because of your exceptional interview or you might be offered admission despite your interview.  It's still just a big black box at this point. 

My personal opinion is that you are now at the most fun part of the application process.  If you don't already, try to see it as such. Will likely help with the anxiety!

[MSWschnoodle]

Honestly, I have to agree with volume overload in that you won't gain meaningful information trying to calculate this (there are too many variables at this point). Regardless of the stage in the admissions process it is safe to assume that the odds are never particularly in your favour - but as one of the goats once said to me... the #1 predictor for getting in to medical school is indeed getting an interview for medical school. 

 

The interview can make or break your application, without a question. You could go in to interviews having one of the top 10% of pre-interview scores and not make the waitlist. Likewise, as at least one of our great forum members will tell you... you can go in having the absolute lowest pre-interview score offered an interview and come out with an offer if you are an interview rockstar. I know it can feel like it is helpful to know your pre-interview odds... but there is a huge unknown variable (your pre-interview score) and a huge yet to be determined variable (your interview score) that make it impossible to really draw much meaning from that statistic. For what it's worth, 48% sounds a little high (I have no solid evidence with which to back that up) but 30% is roughly the size of the entering class... so somewhere between those two numbers seems like a reasonable estimate.

 

I will also jump on the "this part of the application process is fun!" train. It is. In fact it is IMMENSELY fun. Honestly, I had an amazing time at my interview. It was a great excuse to meet a whole bunch of really neat people and talk to them about interesting (and sometimes unusual) things. It's the only interview you will ever go to where someone could give you 8 minutes to consider what you would do if aliens crash landed in your backyard, accidentally beamed your aunt to Mars with a malfunctioning transporter and you had only three sticks of gum, a paperclip and the contents of your back yard (because of course you forgot your house key in all the excitement) to stage a rescue mission (editor's note: Not actually an interview station, I made it up just now). 

 

 

The Dholes are looking forward to hosting interview day and we are aiming to make it the best possible experience 

[BernieMac]

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[VolumeOverload]

completely disregard the above!!

 

[...]

Your post is still a bit misleading though because it lumps IP + OOP together.  You don't know how either of the two pools will move (ie what break down of your numerator was IP offers vs OOP offers).

 

For example, OOP students compete for ~23 spots (15% of the class size).  In the first round of offers, they send out 1.2x the number of offers as they have available spots, which equates to ~28 offers.  For 2015/16, all OOP spots were filled within the first round meaning there was no OOP waitlist movement.  So if you were one of the 80 OOP students that interviewed, your chances to get an offer was:  28/80 = 35%.

 

By all means, someone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

 

[BernieMac]

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[BernieMac]

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[1994]

This is a bit misleading.

 

Dr. Walker mentioned on the blog that they have been interviewing fewer and fewer people because in the past they found they were inviting people to interview who realistically had no chance for admission even with a very good interview score. In fact, the actual number of acceptances that are given out each year have been dropping but more people are perceived to be receiving offers looking at percentages alone because of the decreasing number of interview offers. All this really tells you is that the person who is last on the interview list has a better chance than whoever that person was several years ago.

 

Also, last year was unique in terms of the acceptance rate for OOP students. In the past I believe they have gone quite deep into the OOP waitlist. Regardless, this number is quite volatile and you can't assume this will be the case again. Because OOP are objectively more competitive due to the number interviewed and the cutoffs for their pool you'd expect them to have a greater chance of receiving an offer than IP applicants post-MMI.

[BernieMac]

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[1994]

where does it show that the actual number of offers have been dropping? Looking at the data it has been relatively stable around 250 offers for the past 3 years? (2013/2014 cycle until 2015/2016) I understand prior to '13 they gave more offers but it has been steady at around 250 for the past 3 years

Not sure where you got your stats but these are the ones I'm using.

 

Total number of offers (including deferrals)/success rate (AB/OOP)

2010/2011: 345 (28.7%/10.9%)

2011/2012: 322 (23.5%/9.6%)

2012/2013: 278 (20.4%/8.5%)

2013/2014: 288 (18.3%/10.2%)

2014/2015: 263 (17.1%/16.7%)

2015/2016: 251 (your data)

 

The number of actual offers are certainly decreasing yearly.

[BernieMac]

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[1994]

I was citing the published AFMC data https://afmc.ca/sites/default/files/documents/en/Publications/AdmissionsBook2016-Final-EN.pdf. I doubt it is inaccurate.

[BernieMac]

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