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Did you get put on the waitlist today at 7:53? Is McMaster your only hope at becoming an MD? if so, then please join the party.
Feel free to discuss anything and everything regarding the waitlist.

Here is a link to last year's waitlist thread: http://forums.premed101.com/topic/99542-mcmaster-waitlist-party/

Have fun, keep us updated, and I hope to see you all in August!

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Also on the waitlist but happy to have some people going through the same thing to talk it out through! I hope it is like last year and McMaster doesn't wait the full 2 weeks to start calling people but I am also starting to think i need to not hope for anything at this point :blink:

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2 minutes ago, APP2019 said:

Also on the waitlist but happy to have some people going through the same thing to talk it out through! I hope it is like last year and McMaster doesn't wait the full 2 weeks to start calling people but I am also starting to think i need to not hope for anything at this point :blink:

Yes, please, the wait is killing me and it's only been 3 hours. 

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What is the size of McMaster's waitlist? I haven't seen a single rejection yet and I see that they send out 330 offers (with only 206 spots), so maybe literally everyone else is waitlisted?

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7 minutes ago, Anderfishy said:

What is the size of McMaster's waitlist? I haven't seen a single rejection yet and I see that they send out 330 offers (with only 206 spots), so maybe literally everyone else is waitlisted?

To be fair, I think people who got rejects might not post right away. Also, based on last year's post, there are definitely some outright rejections. 

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To my understanding, the 330 offers are a culmination of what is sent between initial offers and all waitlist offers. In past threads some people have said that Mac over accepts to start (let's guess 240 sent out today?), meaning we can expect a lot of waitlist movement (~80 if historical data is representative).

Quick note though, the 330 offers were sent two cycles ago. Last cycle there were 316.

No idea how many people got rejected but I don't think they would waitlist 300+ people, especially given that rejections are present in the main thread for past years.

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40 minutes ago, duckduckgoose18 said:

To be fair, I think people who got rejects might not post right away. Also, based on last year's post, there are definitely some outright rejections. 

Can confirm that I was rejected, so they are definitely being sent out

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1 hour ago, anythingthatworks said:

To my understanding, the 330 offers are a culmination of what is sent between initial offers and all waitlist offers. In past threads some people have said that Mac over accepts to start (let's guess 240 sent out today?), meaning we can expect a lot of waitlist movement (~80 if historical data is representative).

Quick note though, the 330 offers were sent two cycles ago. Last cycle there were 316.

I have the same understanding, 330 (or 316) were the number of total offers before they filled the seats, not the number of initial offers sent out in the first round.

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McMaster has huge waitlist movement so there is lots of hope. When you are taken off the waitlist, your campus ranking is not taken into account, you are just the first in line off the waitlist and taking over the spot that was vacated by someone that was accepted that rejected the offer. Everyone would prefer a 4 year school unless you are old and know for a fact you want family medicine. 

McMaster will start moving their waitlist immediately. I had a friend that was accepted a few days after the first day last year. I was accepted at the first big wave at the 2 week mark when applicants are forced to decide about the offers they have. 

Wendy Edge will email you most likely. I don't think they ever call.

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8 minutes ago, jonasbrothers said:

Does anyone know how big the waitlist actually is? 

"How many students get in off the wait list?

The number varies from year to year. We do not give out numerical information on the wait-list. Sorry." - Official information on the FAQ sheet given to hosts on interview day.

552 are interviewed likely 350 will be offered admission to fill the 200 spots.

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Here's my analysis of what we may be able to expect. Assumptions and steps below. Tl;dr 47% of us will get a spot if we assume they outright reject 20% of interviewees; that number goes up to 78% if they outright reject 30% of interviewees.

On the forums 39 people posted their invites to interview and 2 people posted getting an invite after being waitlisted. So far, 13 people got accepted, 13 waitlisted, and 1 rejected, so only 27 out of 41 interviewees posted. However, us waitlisted people are the most likely to post because, unlike accepted or rejected people, our application process still has not ended. I assume then that all who were waitlisted posted (pretty confident) and that every waitlisted person also posted their invite to interview (relatively confident).

So that means that 13/41 or 32% of interviewees got waitlisted*, and as swoman estimated, 350/552 or 63% of interviewees will be offered spots. These two groups of people form a venn diagram. The intersection of the venn diagram is what we are interested in representing people who get waitlisted AND get offered a spot.

From the above, in principle it's possible that no waitlisted person gets offered a spot, but that would imply that there is no overlap in the venn diagram, and so only (100-(63+32))% = 5% of interviewees were rejected outright (the outside of the venn diagram). Obviously, that's unreasonably low. So now we start to speculate. Suppose 20% of interviewees were rejected outright. We then have 80% of interviewees left to account for 32% waitlisted and 63% offered. 32%+63% = 95%, greater than 80% by 15% which is exactly the overlap of the venn diagram. The fraction of people who get waitlisted AND offered a spot over the total number of waitlisted people is 15%/32% = 47%. We have about a coin toss chance of being offered a spot assuming a 20% rate of outright rejection.

The higher the outright rejection rate, the better our chances. We can do another scenario assuming 30% rate of outright rejection. We then have (32+63-(100-30))/32 % = 78%. Interestingly, from this analysis, we can say that the outright rejection rate can be no higher than 37%. At higher than 37%, there is not enough waitlisted people to fulfill the statistic of 63% interviewees being offered spots.

* This assumes the 41 posters on the forums is representative of the population of 552. I think it's justified because applicants on both ends of the bell curve would post: on one end the highly capable and motivated people who would use every single available resource including forums, and on the other end the people whose chances are worse and were excited to receive an invite.

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5 hours ago, CoffeeOtter said:

Here's my analysis of what we may be able to expect. Assumptions and steps below. Tl;dr 47% of us will get a spot if we assume they outright reject 20% of interviewees; that number goes up to 78% if they outright reject 30% of interviewees.

On the forums 39 people posted their invites to interview and 2 people posted getting an invite after being waitlisted. So far, 13 people got accepted, 13 waitlisted, and 1 rejected, so only 27 out of 41 interviewees posted. However, us waitlisted people are the most likely to post because, unlike accepted or rejected people, our application process still has not ended. I assume then that all who were waitlisted posted (pretty confident) and that every waitlisted person also posted their invite to interview (relatively confident).

So that means that 13/41 or 32% of interviewees got waitlisted*, and as swoman estimated, 350/552 or 63% of interviewees will be offered spots. These two groups of people form a venn diagram. The intersection of the venn diagram is what we are interested in representing people who get waitlisted AND get offered a spot.

From the above, in principle it's possible that no waitlisted person gets offered a spot, but that would imply that there is no overlap in the venn diagram, and so only (100-(63+32))% = 5% of interviewees were rejected outright (the outside of the venn diagram). Obviously, that's unreasonably low. So now we start to speculate. Suppose 20% of interviewees were rejected outright. We then have 80% of interviewees left to account for 32% waitlisted and 63% offered. 32%+63% = 95%, greater than 80% by 15% which is exactly the overlap of the venn diagram. The fraction of people who get waitlisted AND offered a spot over the total number of waitlisted people is 15%/32% = 47%. We have about a coin toss chance of being offered a spot assuming a 20% rate of outright rejection.

The higher the outright rejection rate, the better our chances. We can do another scenario assuming 30% rate of outright rejection. We then have (32+63-(100-30))/32 % = 78%. Interestingly, from this analysis, we can say that the outright rejection rate can be no higher than 37%. At higher than 37%, there is not enough waitlisted people to fulfill the statistic of 63% interviewees being offered spots.

* This assumes the 41 posters on the forums is representative of the population of 552. I think it's justified because applicants on both ends of the bell curve would post: on one end the highly capable and motivated people who would use every single available resource including forums, and on the other end the people whose chances are worse and were excited to receive an invite.

Last year 316 offers were sent; does the 350 estimate include those that removed themselves from the waitlist?

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I really appreciate the statistical analysis. To anyone whos brave enough to keep it going, I can offer just a bit more information. I recieved an interview without posting in the Invite thread - did not have an account at the time. And I personally know of 1 person who has already declined their Mac offer and 2 others who have removed themselves from the waitlist in favour of another offer. In speculation, I was wondering what the new start date, August 12, will do in terms of affecting the waitlist movement relative to other years. 310+ offers have consistantly been made in recent years to fill the class, (not accounting from people who remove themself from the waitlist prematurely - I would assume) however, the actual number does fluctuate. My own hypothesis is that this figure could be slightly higher this year in spite of some changes... once again though, this is just speculation.

 

 

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