May 12 Countdown Thread 2020

[Anon_9]

 

1 minute ago, DanKeith said:

I talked to OMSAS live chat earlier today and asked about the button extensively. All they said was to ignore the button, but they were also very evasive when asked directly if it was confirmed a glitch and wasn't related to an offer being registered to our OMSAS accounts. They deferred to SAM when the questions were direct. I don't know how much we can trust the transparency and forthcomingness of those poor OMSAS live chat workers swamped with our button questions. 

Really? My OMSAS live chat worker specifically said "it appears to be a glitch that has no bearing on your application"- what else could this be interpreted as? I would love to believe that this means I got an offer from Mac, but I really don't think we should put our hopes on this random button. 

 

[BernieMac]

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[DanKeith]

I agree that we shouldn't put the hopes of an offer on this button but I don't think a good argument to be skeptic would be to believe omsas chat when they're so vague and also haven't fixed the glitch or made a statement. If this was just a simple glitch on their end I think it would be reasonable to expect a statement or fix of the glitch given the amount of people that have brought it to their attention. 

[Anon_9]

1 minute ago, YesIcan55 said:

you have to be really naive to believe it is a glitch lol 

Okay bro don't come for me LOL

Hahaha I wanna believe it's not a glitch too! But this is all speculation and false hope tastes bitter 

 

[James Nystead]

Let's examine the evidence:

- Successful MD PhD applicants this cycle have the button

- Successful applicants in previous cycles noted the button in their screenshot 

- Unsuccessful applicants in previous cycles did not note the button in their screenshot (there was a user who was on multiple waitlists that followed extensively and never saw the button)

- All those with the button have one school in common - Mac; - All those without the button also did not interview at Mac. 

- Clicking the button says "All offer responses reset"

- OMSAS live chat screenshot says "there is a "reset" button if applicants want to make changes before submitting acceptance to an offer." 

- "Reset Responses" is the name of the button, you only respond to an offer of acceptance. 

[Anon_9]

Maybe I should ask more specific questions on this live chat..... I'm too anxious to message SAM directly lol... anyone wanna try SAM? 

[James Nystead]

1 minute ago, DanKeith said:

I agree that we shouldn't put the hopes of an offer on this button but I don't think a good argument to be skeptic would be to believe omsas chat when they're so vague and also haven't fixed the glitch or made a statement. If this was just a simple glitch on their end I think it would be reasonable to expect a statement or fix of the glitch given the amount of people that have brought it to their attention. 

If it was truly a glitch, would admitting it (like they have done) OR fixing it (but it looks suspicious, why would you fix a meaningless glitch) be the best move?

How does a glitch only affect such a select population tho (those who interviewed at Mac)?

[ThisIsMe]

Perhaps it could be a glitch that applies only to people who received an offer to a specific campus to McMaster? I.e the button accidentally appeared for those who had an offer to the Niagara campus entered into OMSAS, but the same accident/glitch didn’t happen when other offers were entered. I mean at this point I’m sure all schools have submitted their offers so perhaps it’s just a one-off glitch that reveals a a subset of Mac offers. 

 

Edit: that could also explain why some high-stats people don’t have the button

[James Nystead]

OMSAS live chatters - someone ask if when OMSAS choices/offer will update with responses (ie is it midnight like last year?)

[MedicineLCS]

24 minutes ago, rawshrimp said:

You can check the poll results and try to extrapolate from the total vs button. Although, pm101's sample is probably not representative of the actual applicant pool. 

Since someone asked about numbers, I redid the no/yes spreadsheet I started yesterday (it's current as of this post). 

Google apparently decided that creating an account to post a spreadsheet was "suspicious" and restricted even MY access to the spreadsheet. So I restored it from my personal account and actually did the math. For anyone wondering where it went, I deleted the account, but still have the file if someone wants to look for patterns. 

Assuming everyone is truthful (e.g. counting a profile created yesterday the same as one that's existed for months) we have 44 Mac "Interviewees" (a decent sample!). 23 of them have buttons (52%), 21 do not (48%). 

Assuming forum users are slightly more competitive than the general applicant pool (and sample bias in reporting buttons vs. keeping not having one to yourself) that's decently close to what an offer percentage would look like (if they make 206/~550 offers it's about 37%). 

Not conclusive, but interesting. 

 

 

[Anon_9]

3 minutes ago, William Osler said:

All those without the button also did not interview at Mac. 

Aren't there many applicants who interviewed at Mac but don't see the button? 

couldn't this button just be a glitch, even if typically it resets offers? It could just mean nothing right now and it accidentally appeared for some people?

[lakeshore]

Just now, MedicineLCS said:

Since someone asked about numbers, I redid the no/yes spreadsheet I started yesterday (it's current as of this post). 

Google apparently decided that creating an account to post a spreadsheet was "suspicious" and restricted even MY access to the spreadsheet. So I restored it from my personal account and actually did the math. For anyone wondering where it went, I deleted the account, but still have the file if someone wants to look for patterns. 

Assuming everyone is truthful (e.g. counting a profile created yesterday the same as one that's existed for months) we have 44 Mac "Interviewees" (a decent sample!). 23 of them have buttons (52%), 21 do not (48%). 

Assuming forum users are slightly more competitive than the general applicant pool (and sample bias in reporting buttons vs. keeping not having one to yourself) that's decently close to what an offer percentage would look like (if they make 206/~550 offers it's about 37%). 

Not conclusive, but interesting. 

 

 

No wonder! I tried to check it lastnight but it said i needed access. Anyway you can upload it and post the link again? Or is it still not letting you?

[BernieMac]

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[James Nystead]

1 minute ago, ThisIsMe said:

Perhaps it could be a glitch that applies only to people who received an offer to a specific campus to McMaster? I.e the button accidentally appeared for those who had an offer to the Niagara campus entered into OMSAS, but the same accident/glitch didn’t happen when other offers were entered. I mean at this point I’m sure all schools have submitted their offers so perhaps it’s just a one-off glitch that reveals a a subset of Mac offers. 

43 ppl have the button - they definitely dont send out 50% more offers for ONE regional campus (quota of 29) and it would be odd to happen to 2 regional campus but not main campus. I do think it's a reflection of the entire cohort (550 interviewees) but it is a decent guess for why the GPA, CARS of #buttongang is so strange

[MedicineLCS]

2 minutes ago, YesIcan55 said:

why would you need to make a spreadsheet when you can just look at the poll and do the quick division lol

I don't trust the poll results. People get confused, think "the button" is the red box one, etc... I trust posts far more than anonymous poll results. 

EDIT. I'll work on sharing the file again. 

[James Nystead]

3 minutes ago, MedicineLCS said:

(if they make 206/~550 offers it's about 37%). 

Thanks for the stats, these data points are from users who posted instead of the poll right? (43 buttons (55%), 35 no buttons (45%) which is pretty close

I would say that Mac definitely invites more than 206. They know their waitlist consistently is in the 330s so anywhere from 250 to even 270 is a safe range!

[lakeshore]

2 minutes ago, YesIcan55 said:

why would you need to make a spreadsheet when you can just look at the poll and do the quick division lol

The spreadsheet also was tracking all schools people interviewed at. If more people start seeing but and they aren't mac interviewees then it might be useful to track what other schools are common. 

[Anon_9]

Does anyone know why they are deffering to SAM? I don't mind asking the live chatters about the midnight OMSAS reveal, but I have a feeling they will defer me to SAM again. If they do, how do you guys think we should phrase our questions? I want to be as specific as possible.

[DanKeith]

1 minute ago, William Osler said:

Let's examine the evidence:

- Successful MD PhD applicants this cycle have the button

- Successful applicants in previous cycles noted the button in their screenshot 

- Unsuccessful applicants in previous cycles did not note the button in their screenshot (there was a user who was on multiple waitlists that followed extensively and never saw the button)

- All those with the button have one school in common - Mac; - All those without the button also did not interview at Mac. 

- Clicking the button says "All offer responses reset"

- OMSAS live chat screenshot says "there is a "reset" button if applicants want to make changes before submitting acceptance to an offer." 

- "Reset Responses" is the name of the button, you only respond to an offer of acceptance. 

I agree that the button that is specific to its action and it's indicative of an offer during regular years. This is an unprecedented situation though and the salient questions are then whether or not the reason for the button showing up is because of a completely random glitch that has nothing to do with statistics or if it was a clerical error that accidentally released information through an unforeseen button change. 

[James Nystead]

Just now, rawshrimp said:

The spreadsheet also was tracking all schools people interviewed at. If more people start seeing but and they aren't mac interviewees then it might be useful to track what other schools are common. 

Yea that would be nice if other applicants showed up in batches (eg new ppl get buttons but they al applied to UWO for example) but likely OMSAS put a stop to that happening until May 12 because we noticed the pattern.

[LetsTryThisAgain19]

6 minutes ago, MedicineLCS said:

Since someone asked about numbers, I redid the no/yes spreadsheet I started yesterday (it's current as of this post). 

Google apparently decided that creating an account to post a spreadsheet was "suspicious" and restricted even MY access to the spreadsheet. So I restored it from my personal account and actually did the math. For anyone wondering where it went, I deleted the account, but still have the file if someone wants to look for patterns. 

Assuming everyone is truthful (e.g. counting a profile created yesterday the same as one that's existed for months) we have 44 Mac "Interviewees" (a decent sample!). 23 of them have buttons (52%), 21 do not (48%). 

Assuming forum users are slightly more competitive than the general applicant pool (and sample bias in reporting buttons vs. keeping not having one to yourself) that's decently close to what an offer percentage would look like (if they make 206/~550 offers it's about 37%). 

Not conclusive, but interesting. 

 

 

Not sure where the poll is cause I'm super new to this but you can add me to the list of people with a button. 

[Psych]

1 minute ago, William Osler said:

Yea that would be nice if other applicants showed up in batches (eg new ppl get buttons but they al applied to UWO for example) but likely OMSAS put a stop to that happening until May 12 because we noticed the pattern.

Yeah I feel like at this point no one else will get buttons, cause clearly they know about the problem now haha. No matter what the button means, it definitely wasn't supposed to be released before results I'm sure

[MedGoldfish]

Why would the button only appear for Mac interviewees when all other schools have submitted their offers to OMSAS as well?

[James Nystead]

5 minutes ago, Anon_9 said:

Does anyone know why they are deffering to SAM? I don't mind asking the live chatters about the midnight OMSAS reveal, but I have a feeling they will defer me to SAM again. If they do, how do you guys think we should phrase our questions? I want to be as specific as possible.

Since the morning of 7th May 2020, some applicants have noted the appearance of a new button "Reset Responses" on the Choices/Offers page of their OMSAS interface below the red box. These applicants share similar characteristics of having interviewed at McMaster. Clicking on the button says "All offer responses reset" and successful applicants this cycle (MD PhD) and the previous cycle noted the button as well. Unsuccessful applicants the previous cycle did not note the button.  We were wondering if the button was indicative of an upcoming offer of admission or if there is no correlation between the two events?

[MedicineLCS]

2 minutes ago, William Osler said:

Thanks for the stats, these data points are from users who posted instead of the poll right?

Yes, as I previously noted, the poll results are pointless at this point due to confusion. People who are corrected in this thread were removed from my spreadsheet, which you can now find here (save it before you crash another platform or it disappears!):

https://ethercalc.org/ang7zhlx47or

If it disappears you may be able to use the edit history to recover the data.

2 minutes ago, MedGoldfish said:

Why would the button only appear for Mac interviewees when all other schools have submitted their offers to OMSAS as well?

You're assuming admissions people are organized enough send in their results already.