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I did a bit math to estimate the odds. The calculation may not be correct.

According to the blog our mean pre mmi score is 104.6X. Let's assume interviewers all have the mean pre mmi score for now. 

For the previous cycle,  the cut off score to get an interview was 108.88 (OOP) and 102.22 (IP) and the total score to get on WL is 204.9 (OOP) or 203.79 (IP). This means a mean mmi score (100, top 50%) will at least get us on WL.

The cut off score for an offer is 220.37  (OOP) or 212.45 (IP), means an interview score a SD above the mean (115) will get an OOP offer (15.8%, about top 90 interviewers) and an interview score 0.5 SD above the mean (107.5) will get an IP offer (30.8%, about  top 177 interviewers).

Not sure if this helps anything. I just feel the chance is OK.

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1 hour ago, hopingformd said:

Wow! Thanks for clarifying that, I had no idea This would be including waitlisters who made it in then i guess? I probably should have checked the stats before blabbing, I'm a first time applicant (just applied to UofC this year) and haven't really looked into stats anywhere too much. This was really good info to know! :) 

I spoke to a few of the current students at the pre-interview night and a great point they mentioned is that there is usually 100+ OOP applicants interviewed who tend to the accept offers closer to home so that brings the odds up substantially, as well as in Dr. Panacciones's post he mentioned that 40% of applicants were from UofA so the trend of staying close to home helps the odds there as well. It's definitely a nerve racking process going through and looking at admissions numbers and previous accept/rejects but when the time comes I hope you get to matriculate into a great program (:
 

here's a quote for everyone during these final weeks and current situation in the world 

"Do not indulge in dreams of having what you have not, but reckon up the chief of the blessings you do possess, and then thankfully remember how you would crave for them if they were not yours." - Marcus Aurelius

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2 hours ago, RiderSx said:

UofC still has a near 50% acceptance rate post interview!

As you can see, last year only 135 spots were available and they still made 245 offers. Only 7 less spots are being offered this year compared to the year before. I predict that over 200 offers will still be made this year.

A6ECD06D-7569-42BD-91B2-A143760125FD.jpeg

Thanks for sharing this info! I was just wondering which website this is from? 

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32 minutes ago, Mira said:

I did a bit math to estimate the odds. The calculation may not be correct.

According to the blog our mean pre mmi score is 104.6X. Let's assume interviewers all have the mean pre mmi score for now. 

For the previous cycle,  the cut off score to get an interview was 108.88 (OOP) and 102.22 (IP) and the total score to get on WL is 204.9 (OOP) or 203.79 (IP). This means a mean mmi score (100, top 50%) will at least get us on WL.

The cut off score for an offer is 220.37  (OOP) or 212.45 (IP), means an interview score a SD above the mean (115) will get an OOP offer (15.8%, about top 90 interviewers) and an interview score 0.5 SD above the mean (107.5) will get an IP offer (30.8%, about  top 177 interviewers).

Not sure if this helps anything. I just feel the chance is OK.

From the 2018/2019 cycle:

17.1% of Alberta applications received an offer when all was said and done. There were 1241 IP applicants. This totals 212 offers.

14% of OPPs received offers. There were  312 OOP applicants. This totals 44 offers. (Edit: this is actually a bit high, because 312 = OOP + international applicants, so the number of OOP offers was a bit lower).

Of course, all of this depends on available seats (2019, n =135).

References:
https://afmc.ca/sites/default/files/pdf/2020_admission-requirements_EN.pdf
https://cumming.ucalgary.ca/sites/default/files/teams/4/Reference %26 Stats/Reference Stats 2019.pdf

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Does anyone know if they keep a record of which verifiers they have contacted in the past? I know it is supposed to be a random process, but do you think they would contact the same verifier two years in a row or would they use notes from previous applications?

Has anyone heard from their verifiers?

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1 hour ago, Heme said:

Does anyone know if they keep a record of which verifiers they have contacted in the past? I know it is supposed to be a random process, but do you think they would contact the same verifier two years in a row or would they use notes from previous applications?

Has anyone heard from their verifiers?

Haven’t heard anything. 

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On 4/29/2020 at 5:51 PM, motherofdragons said:

"What the learning environment will look like" Maybe online classes? Hmmm

Things in the Calgary area aren't yet stable despite distancing measures and high levels of testing/tracing/isolating. Given the current situation and the restrictions on group gatherings, I'm suspecting all classes will be done online. Exposing an entire med class to the virus would be bad for everyone, especially given the class's connections with the healthcare system. From my understanding, the UofC records most of their lectures (all?), so they may have past recordings or do new ones. However, I don't know much about the types of 'hands on' teaching that takes place in the first year. 

Who knows though-- I've been wrong before!

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2 hours ago, Heme said:

Does anyone know if they keep a record of which verifiers they have contacted in the past? I know it is supposed to be a random process, but do you think they would contact the same verifier two years in a row or would they use notes from previous applications?

Has anyone heard from their verifiers?

I haven't heard anything yet. I didn't have any verifiers contacted in the other cycles I've applied to (and didn't get in), but they say it's random? I hope it is. 

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3 minutes ago, Gumby said:

I haven't heard anything yet. I didn't have any verifiers contacted in the other cycles I've applied to (and didn't get in), but they say it's random? I hope it is. 

Wait-list or regret? (if you don't mind sharing)

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28 minutes ago, Heme said:

Wait-list or regret? (if you don't mind sharing)

Regrets. It could just be that I was part of the group that didn't get contacted. As we know, correlation doesn't mean causation, but it is something I've seen a pattern in. I do find it particularly odd that someone getting an offer might not have any verifiers checked. Perhaps they do all offer recipients and wait-lists, plus randoms from the regrets pool? That seems reasonable. We do know that they don't contact verifiers for everyone. What would answer this simply is if there was someone who received an offer who didn't have any verifiers contacted. 

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Do we know if they contact all verifiers or only a couple from each applicant’s app?

^^Nvm, found my answer in a blog post update from April 17. In case anyone else is wondering:

"3) We will now enter into the verifier stage. We do this randomly or if something catches our eye in the file.  Whether one of your verifiers is contacted, how many are contacted, when they are contacted means nothing with respect to your ranking. SO please do not obsess over this. If we have trouble contacting one of your verifiers we will contact you."

Edited by anonymouspanda
Found my answer

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1 hour ago, LostLamb said:

Some years I had a verified contacted and some I did not. In the year I got in I did not have any verifications. It’s random. Trust the system. 

Very interesting. Thanks for your response! 

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On 5/4/2020 at 10:47 AM, Heme said:

Instant panic every time I get an email, even though we have a week to go...

Same! I have this irrational hope that they’ll end up releasing decisions early and it’ll happen this week (circa 2018) even though I know this is not one of those years lol.

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1 hour ago, hopingformd said:

Same! I have this irrational hope that they’ll end up releasing decisions early and it’ll happen this week (circa 2018) 

Oh gosh, that's an anxiety provoking thought, though I'd rather get it done with sooner than later. I'm really hoping for a blog update soon. A person can wish right

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2 hours ago, motherofdragons said:

Oh gosh, that's an anxiety provoking thought, though I'd rather get it done with sooner than later. I'm really hoping for a blog update soon. A person can wish right

haha yup! although I'm not even sure what the contents would be...besides telling us if we got in, I feel like Dr. P has covered pretty much everything. doesn't stop me from being greedy for some signs of progress though!

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I had trouble sleeping the entire week before acceptance letter were out. Applicant neuroticism :D 

I don't think it will be released before next week. There is like zero rush this year haha. 

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37 minutes ago, babakoto said:

I had a verifier contacted! Just a heads up

Same though it is at random. I thought they would have completed this step in the process by now if we were to find out by May 11th. I do remember reading somewhere that they continue to verify even after results come out so maybe it doesn't affect timelines too much.

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