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MedGoldfish

Will McMaster release selection criteria before May 12?

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I know this is gonna be controversial here, but thought I could play devil’s advocate:

Lines in the sand: pre-interview rank and probability of receiving admission to medical school

 

Can’t post the link here, but just paste that title into google. The relevant quote from the article:


"post-hoc testing shows that a significantly greater number of offers are tendered to applicants categorized into the top bin (pre-interview ranks 1 to 50), z = 3.66 p<.001, and second bin (pre-interview ranks 51 to 100), z = 5.96 p<.001. Moreover, this testing revealed no significant differences amongst the remaining bins (i.e., comprising pre-interview ranks 101 to 550)” 

 

This is likely where a lot of their justification for the new formula is coming from. 

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4 minutes ago, William Osler said:

To fulfill their promise of revealing their selection formula before results

The perfect timing to avoid answering questions regarding the selection process before releasing the results. This way they only have to deal with those who end up on the waitlist or get rejected which would be a smaller sample of the applicants. 

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2 minutes ago, short_stack said:

Yeah, one of the biggest questions is how the waitlist will work now that it's all random. I'm not sure if they'll even have time to address that before offers go out.

It doesn't make sense to randomize applicants to offer/waitlist/no offer bins and then rank them for the waitlist bin. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that it'll be random as well. When someone declines, a computer will pick a name from a spreadsheet

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6 minutes ago, RiderSx said:

The perfect timing to avoid answering questions regarding the selection process before releasing the results. This way they only have to deal with those who end up on the waitlist or get rejected which would be a smaller sample of the applicants. 

Exactly, they can say they released the formula before the deadline but in effect there's no time for any questions. Sending it at 4:30pm on a Friday is just *chef's kiss*

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3 minutes ago, short_stack said:

Yes that makes most sense to me as well, but they could definitely have included that explanation in the email.

They could’ve done MANY things but their “intensive data analysis” and their “education scientists” decided on a lottery. Absolutely mind blowing.

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1 minute ago, GLWL said:

They could’ve done MANY things but their “intensive data analysis” and their “education scientists” decided on a lottery. Absolutely mind blowing.

Lol I really don't know what to say on the topic. I had no other interviews, my GPA is low so Mac is probably the only school I could realistically apply to, even in the future. I don't really have much hope now :unsure:

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3 minutes ago, short_stack said:

Lol I really don't know what to say on the topic. I had no other interviews, my GPA is low so Mac is probably the only school I could realistically apply to, even in the future. I don't really have much hope now 

You still have hope! The odds may still be in your favor! Plus you have a shot at the MMI next year. In a way, though you are delayed by a year (which sucks, don't get me wrong), you have a free shot this year! If someone told you can have a guaranteed MMI next year, PLUS a 25-50% of getting by a lottery this year, that would sound pretty incredible. And that's the reality we live in. It's strange, but there is a bright side to this. 

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I have a feeling that the impact of the lottery will be felt next year too. I'm not sure if this is true, but a med friend told me they were potentially considering increasing the interview pool next year so that it's 552 + all the people from this year who are being added in. So that's already more competitive, and unfairly making the interviewees suffer. Of course, this friend could be misinformed, or maybe the admin were just entertaining that idea and they wouldn't actually do it. I would hope not. They should have a total of 552 spots still, but be very clear to next cycle's applicants that they only have 552 minus this year left, and therefore they should apply accordingly.

But who knows. I never saw a lottery system coming, so I really am scared about next year.

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8 minutes ago, short_stack said:

I have a feeling that the impact of the lottery will be felt next year too. I'm not sure if this is true, but a med friend told me they were potentially considering increasing the interview pool next year so that it's 552 + all the people from this year who are being added in. So that's already more competitive, and unfairly making the interviewees suffer. Of course, this friend could be misinformed, or maybe the admin were just entertaining that idea and they wouldn't actually do it. I would hope not. They should have a total of 552 spots still, but be very clear to next cycle's applicants that they only have 552 minus this year left, and therefore they should apply accordingly.

But who knows. I never saw a lottery system coming, so I really am scared about next year.

Mac waitlist usually move's to 330, let's assume 20+ ppl choose not to go to Mac to avoid being in the lottery class so we've an even 200.

These 200 people were the top 550 out of 5000+, their GPA and CARS were definitely good enough and that's unlikely to worsen/change drastically. Thus, the only benefit of guranteeing interviews is to alleviate the stress of bombing CASPer which is somewhat of a crapshoot. Given that these applicants likely did well enough on CASPer once, chances are, they'll likely be in the top ~550 of net year's class anyways. It would be interesting to see how many of the applicants not offered admission this year are not in the top 550 next year (given most ppl write CASPer anyways for uO). I don't think this action will affect the next interview batch significantly

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2 hours ago, Applicant95 said:

My (and probably your) mood right now:

 

This is actually highly catchy lol. Perhaps will be put in next year's admission video 

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2 minutes ago, William Osler said:

Mac waitlist usually move's to 330, let's assume 20+ ppl choose not to go to Mac to avoid being in the lottery class so we've an even 200.

These 200 people were the top 550 out of 5000+, their GPA and CARS were definitely good enough and that's unlikely to worsen/change drastically. Thus, the only benefit of guranteeing interviews is to alleviate the stress of bombing CASPer which is somewhat of a crapshoot. Given that these applicants likely did well enough on CASPer once, chances are, they'll likely be in the top ~550 of net year's class anyways. It would be interesting to see how many of the applicants not offered admission this year are not in the top 550 next year (given most ppl write CASPer anyways for uO). I don't think this action will affect the next interview batch significantly

Unless they don't have 552 interviews in total.

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How many ppl do you think will be on the reject list? From the 552 is we subtract the 200 that get accepted we're left with 352 ppl. Idk how large the wait list is normally but I'd assume it would be close to 150 ppl. And since this year is special they might but even more people on the wait list so if I'm being liberal I'll round that up to 200 that means from the 552 about 400 would be accepted or waitlisted and about 152 would get the rejection. What do you guys think I'm just kinda throwing number around to pass the time

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2 hours ago, GamingMD said:

How many ppl do you think will be on the reject list? From the 552 is we subtract the 200 that get accepted we're left with 352 ppl. Idk how large the wait list is normally but I'd assume it would be close to 150 ppl. And since this year is special they might but even more people on the wait list so if I'm being liberal I'll round that up to 200 that means from the 552 about 400 would be accepted or waitlisted and about 152 would get the rejection. What do you guys think I'm just kinda throwing number around to pass the time

I would agree with a offer - waitlist - no offer split of 100 - 175 - 175. 

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4 hours ago, short_stack said:

I have a feeling that the impact of the lottery will be felt next year too. I'm not sure if this is true, but a med friend told me they were potentially considering increasing the interview pool next year so that it's 552 + all the people from this year who are being added in. So that's already more competitive, and unfairly making the interviewees suffer. Of course, this friend could be misinformed, or maybe the admin were just entertaining that idea and they wouldn't actually do it. I would hope not. They should have a total of 552 spots still, but be very clear to next cycle's applicants that they only have 552 minus this year left, and therefore they should apply accordingly.

But who knows. I never saw a lottery system coming, so I really am scared about next year.

I heard this from an upper year med student as well. They may be adding a new MMI date to accomodate 200+ more interviewees, bringing the total to 750+ interviewees next year.

I'm guessing the number of seats won't change.

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10 minutes ago, Casablanca said:

I heard this from an upper year med student as well. They may be adding a new MMI date to accomodate 200+ more interviewees, bringing the total to 750+ interviewees next year.

I'm guessing the number of seats won't change.

See? How is it fair for this cycle's applicants to be repeatedly screwed this way? How is it fair that because of a pandemic, Mac decides to completely cancel interviews unlike every other Canadian school, and deals with the fallout by throwing the interviewees selected this cycle under the bus?? Also the next cycle interviewees, since we're all competing for the same number of seats. wtf

edit: I actually feel like this is exactly what they're going to do and that is so devastating for me. Everyone keeps saying "at least there's next year" but next year is gonna be EVEN WORSE? 

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How does that even make sense ? Not all 200 people who don’t get Mac will be reapplying. I imagine a decent chunk will be going to other schools lol

Not to mention many of the reapplicants would have gotten interviews again next year anyways if interviews weren’t guaranteed 

Maybe they add a few more interview spots but 200 more seems far fetched

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3 minutes ago, RawRxD said:

How does that even make sense ? Not all 200 people who don’t get Mac will be reapplying. I imagine a decent chunk will be going to other schools lol

Not to mention many of the reapplicants would have gotten interviews again next year anyways if interviews weren’t guaranteed 

Maybe they add a few more interview spots but 200 more seems far fetched

I'm not sure if it will be 200 more either, but I can see it being 150 more.

It seems reasonable to me that 150 students who do not receive an offer this year from Mac also do not get offers from other schools.

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