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Anyone done the legwork to see how many students are accepted off the waitlist? I’ve tried looking but I don’t think everyone posts on the forum so it’s tough to get an idea.

 

hope everyone is having a good day! Try to stay positive! It’s not a matter of “IF” anymore...Just WHEN 

 

:) 

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15 minutes ago, GreyHairPreMed said:

Anyone done the legwork to see how many students are accepted off the waitlist? I’ve tried looking but I don’t think everyone posts on the forum so it’s tough to get an idea.

 

hope everyone is having a good day! Try to stay positive! It’s not a matter of “IF” anymore...Just WHEN 

 

:) 

Honestly Im just going off of what is of AFMC about 50-60 people defer and decline their offers. If U of A doesn't send more initial offers than there are seats then we can hope that we have at least 50 waitlisters get offers. Let's wait until the first week of June and see what happens. But we all know that the wait is going to be very difficult. 

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Just made an account to discuss this. 

 

So as others have stated, the University of Alberta has an average of ~57 people declining/deferring offers every year according to Association of Faculties of Medicine of Canada (AFMC). In 2015/2016, 64 seats became available and was the highest so far since they have started recording on AFMC. Also bear in mind, historically a minimum of 50 people at least declined. Unfortunately, The UofA does not give us any information on the size of the waitlist or peoples ranks so we can only infer. Calgary does give information though and we also have their AFMC data available. On AFMC, Calgary almost always had 90 + declines/deferrals every year since 2013. On the Calgary admissions blog, the Dean of admissions stated that Calgary's waitlist this year is 148. With respect to that , they had to send out an additional 102 offers last year (2019) to reach a full class size because so many people declined and would explain having a waitlist of 148. So if the admissions staff looks at their historical data, they will always need a waitlist of at least 100+ people to ensure they don't have to walk back on rejections. With these numbers , that's a waitlist that projects to be filled at least 70%. 

 

If the university of Alberta follows a similar guideline and projections as Calgary, with our average declines of 57, the waitlist is probably. about ~ 81 people. Though I may be wrong and the school may just pick 100 people for an even and comfortable number which is what id do if I was in charge of ensuring a filled class.The corona virus changes may also have an impact on the list which would only make it bigger because more people may defer/decline offers. So yea... all we can do is hope we are at least in the top 50 on the waitlist. 

 

I also forgot to mention that there is significant movement on the waitlist because of applicants who remove their names from it. the waitlist may move even more simply because of that fact. 

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^Your analysis is exactly what I've been thinking too. 100 seems like a reasonable number. Would've been really nice if the school told top 50, they are on "good" waitlist and bottom 50 on "bad" waitlist. 

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I got rejected post-interview, but when I did the breakdown from the AFMC data, it seemed as if out of the 60 "extra" offers given, about 33 of them were from cycling through OOP people. There were 57 OOP acceptances given in 2019, but only 24 OOP in the class. That would mean there were about 27 "extra" IP acceptances given, from the 60 total surplus. Whether the "extra" offers are from WL or a surplus of acceptances, I'm not sure. That being said, things may be quite different this year - There were quite a lot of OOP rejections posted on the forums, much more than previous years. Its possible that this year, the waitlist is mostly IP students, and less OOP students will be accepted into the class.

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12 minutes ago, albertamed said:

Without knowing how many people they put on the waitlist it’s impossible to determine what our chances are

Do you think it would be fair to use the U of C number and assume the waitlist is 100+ applicants and they might go through about 50% of the waitlist? 

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6 minutes ago, starmay said:

Do you think it would be fair to use the U of C number and assume the waitlist is 100+ applicants and they might go through about 50% of the waitlist? 

Well the U of C seems to go through about 2/3 of the waitlist so if that same ratio follows at the U of A then the waitlist might be about 80..?

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I called the office and the lady said the waitlist for IP is separate from the waitlist for OOP and offers are made accordingly. So if an OOP rejects offer then an oop waitlist moves in and same applies for IP. When OOP runs out on waitlist then they just stick to IP. So if there is 60 declined on average and we assume half are IP and half are OOP then it should be that maybe 30 from each list get offers made? This is all guessing ofcourse.

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2 hours ago, MedAcceptMe said:

I called the office and the lady said the waitlist for IP is separate from the waitlist for OOP and offers are made accordingly. So if an OOP rejects offer then an oop waitlist moves in and same applies for IP. When OOP runs out on waitlist then they just stick to IP. So if there is 60 declined on average and we assume half are IP and half are OOP then it should be that maybe 30 from each list get offers made? This is all guessing ofcourse.

Makes sense. Did you happen to ask about when offers should start coming?

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1 hour ago, starmay said:

I know its only been a few days but this wait seems so long. What is everyone doing to keep busy these days? 

I am with you on that! Last year i remember some people had already heard back.. My guess is that some movement is coming Tuesday. If not, then probably the May 25th Deadline and after.

The waitlist is horrible because there is still that sense of hope, so you are checking your emails and blogs for such an extended time because it could come at whenever. i hate this more that i hated waiting for the decisions on May 11th. I only wish the school could give us some information about our probability like they do at western. 

Goodluck ! 

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3 hours ago, starmay said:

I know its only been a few days but this wait seems so long. What is everyone doing to keep busy these days? 

I’m writing music and starting a LOTR marathon.   Aaaaaand that’s about it. LOL

 

 

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10 minutes ago, albertaapplicant1 said:

Are we thinking offers will start coming on the 25th/26th? Sorry if seeing this post caused a mini heart attack. Just going a little stir crazy 

Call yourself lucky if you only check this forum every now and then. I'm the idiot that checks every 30 minutes and refreshes their email like its magically going to change. Calgary already has 36 available seats rn for the waitlist and their list has not changed yet(still 148). Im assuming UOFA is similar. I cant help but lose my mind though and yes, it will likely be near the deadline before we hear anything ...FML. 

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1 minute ago, SoldSoulToMED said:

Call yourself lucky if you only check this forum every now and then. I'm the idiot that checks every 30 minutes and refreshes their email like its magically going to change. Calgary already has 36 available seats rn for the waitlist and their list has not changed yet(still 148). Im assuming UOFA is similar. I cant help but lose my mind though and yes, it will likely be near the deadline before we hear anything ...FML. 

 

16 minutes ago, albertaapplicant1 said:

Are we thinking offers will start coming on the 25th/26th? Sorry if seeing this post caused a mini heart attack. Just going a little stir crazy 

Same here! I pretty much check the forum every hours to see if anyone got any news. Im thinking the waitlist won’t start moving until the 25th at the earliest. 

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9 minutes ago, MedAcceptMe said:

Calgary just has 36 declines but  still 58 offers pending so its not that theres 36 for waitlist! atleast not yet

True, although if the 58 people accept then the class will still be missing 36 seats. i just assumed that's what it meant but i guess things could happen. 

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11 minutes ago, SoldSoulToMED said:

True, although if the 58 people accept then the class will still be missing 36 seats. i just assumed that's what it meant but i guess things could happen. 

no no theres 76 acceptances right now and 58 pending so those 58 could fill in the remaining seats to 128/130 so after those are gone then it goes to waitlist. Atleast how I interpret it. Remember they oversend invites

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Hate to throw in more pessimism, but looking at the Calgary numbers I feel that there won't be much waitlist movement this year at either schools... 

Calgary reducing their class size probably impacts the waitlist at U of A too, i.e fewer people accepted to both schools. notice that in the forums too, not many were accepted to both schools this year. 

It sucks. Hope feels like a double-edged sword. Wanna hope so bad that this is the year, but I know it will be devastating when those hopes are crushed

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2 minutes ago, acacna said:

Hate to throw in more pessimism, but looking at the Calgary numbers I feel that there won't be much waitlist movement this year at either schools... 

Calgary reducing their class size probably impacts the waitlist at U of A too, i.e fewer people accepted to both schools. notice that in the forums too, not many were accepted to both schools this year. 

It sucks. Hope feels like a double-edged sword. Wanna hope so bad that this is the year, but I know it will be devastating when those hopes are crushed

Yea the smaller Calgary class size is def a blow to UoFa Wait listers.It is what it is. Hope we are near the top... 

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3 hours ago, acacna said:

Hate to throw in more pessimism, but looking at the Calgary numbers I feel that there won't be much waitlist movement this year at either schools... 

Calgary reducing their class size probably impacts the waitlist at U of A too, i.e fewer people accepted to both schools. notice that in the forums too, not many were accepted to both schools this year. 

It sucks. Hope feels like a double-edged sword. Wanna hope so bad that this is the year, but I know it will be devastating when those hopes are crushed

Not sure if I've just completely overanalyzed, but I went back on the Calgary blog and in a 2018 update uploaded around now (i.e. before waitlist offers were sent), they said they had 102 accepted, 70 outstanding offers (for 140ish seats). That proportion seems to be similar to this year (or even a little worse tbh) but the AFMC numbers of that year are normal. So hopefully these are just normal proportions? They don't normally release the level of detail that they did this year, so we don't totally know how the numbers we are seeing compare to previous years. Hopefully we don't have to be pessimistic just yet!

 

I could be totally misinterpreting though. 

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35 minutes ago, Amilucky said:

Not sure if I've just completely overanalyzed, but I went back on the Calgary blog and in a 2018 update uploaded around now (i.e. before waitlist offers were sent), they said they had 102 accepted, 70 outstanding offers (for 140ish seats). That proportion seems to be similar to this year (or even a little worse tbh) but the AFMC numbers of that year are normal. So hopefully these are just normal proportions? They don't normally release the level of detail that they did this year, so we don't totally know how the numbers we are seeing compare to previous years. Hopefully we don't have to be pessimistic just yet!

 

I could be totally misinterpreting though. 

That's interesting. Guess we should patiently wait 2-3 weeks before deciding how we feel about our chances haha :unsure:

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Hey all, if you check the U of O waitlist thread, they have a "timestamp theory" (http://forums.premed101.com/topic/108861-2020-waitlist-thread/). Basically the theory is that people with earlier time in their waitlist letter are ranked higher on the waitlist. Although it's not perfect, they have quite a bit of data to support their theory.  

Not sure if something similar exists for U of A, but it would be interesting to check it out. If download your U of A waitlist pdf letter, and click on 'Document Properties' you will see that there is a creation time. For example, my document title is 11-131 date/time was 5/6/2020 2:42:xx PM

If enough of us share this info, we might be able to figure out if there is actually any merit to this experiment! 

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