The Law Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 The big day is coming!!! Countdown until Obama wins... Share your thoughts, concerns, etc! Let's also play the predictions game: Predict outcome of: Pennsylvania Virginia North Carolina Ohio Florida Colorado Nevada Indiana New Hampshire Do you forsee any shockers? fivethirtyeight.com's current predictions: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMmd Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 is this really necessary? on a side note, Go Ralph Nader NADER/GONZALEZ 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Law Posted November 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 Of course it's necessary! We need elections to change the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Law Posted November 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 Predictions... Obama wins: Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire - Decisive wins North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio - Close Wins McCain wins: Missouri, Indiana, Florida - Close wins Potential shockers: -Obama sweep is possible due to his great ground work (he has a much, much more elaborate groung game than McCain) and early lead in the advanced polls -Obama may be able to pull off a major upset in Georgia -McCain could win Pennsylvania/North Carolina and give some challenge to Obama -Florida is very, very close... but Obama has a better ground game. In general, Florida has been favouring McCain... but the financial crises has seen Obama take the lead and a subsequent tightening of the race. It's anyone's game! -Missouri may actually end up not voting for the winner of the contest! So much for the saying, "as Missouri goes, so does the nation" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avenir001 Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 oh wow another brilliant thread idea by law why don't u go ease the doc shortage before worrying about US politics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tango Charlie Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 is this really necessary? Life would be awfully dull if all we ever did was what was necessary. Anyway, go Obama. Woop woop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomGuy Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 FiveThirtyEight has McCain up to a 6.3% chance at winning this thing. I was sleeping a lot better when it was down around 2%. I'm giving both Florida and Ohio to McCain, but other than that I agree with The Law's predictions. Nothing to base that on but my gut. Of course, none of these polls consider the possible illegitimacy of the election process, so I guess anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Law Posted November 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 Haha... I was sleeping better with it at 2% too. It's all because of tightening at Pennsylvania. It's not going to tip though... but if any upset were to happen, that's what I'd be watching for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abcwxyz Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 McCain is going to win. Just wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulhammer Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 I pray that McCain doesn't win purely because there is a chance that Palin could become president... I've also heard rumblings that alot of voters are reluctant to vote for Obama based on race - I thought we were past that garbage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THX Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 Pennsylvania - Obama Virginia - Obama North Carolina - Obama Ohio - Obama Florida - Obama Colorado - Obama Nevada - Obama Indiana - McCain New Hampshire - Obama There are other states in contention, most were McCain but now are iffy; including his home state of Arizona, Missouri and North Dakota. I think McCain will win ND and Arizona but will lose Missouri. Anyways, unless McCain single handedly finds Bin Laden, cures cancer or plays a jedi mind trick on all US votes.. it's Obama by a landslide. btw, Fox news is claiming Obama fathered two black children. ...comic genius! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Law Posted November 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 btw, Fox news is claiming Obama fathered two black children! This is definitely the game changer McCain needs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thoughtkinetic Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 As much as I would love Obama to sweep the election, I'm not too confident after watching this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monkey799 Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 I predict the race will be much closer than the law likes, due to the Bradley Effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect racist lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tango Charlie Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 btw, Fox news is claiming Obama fathered two black children. ...comic genius! Guys check this out, Obama = OSAMA??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futuredoc Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 Guys check this out, Obama = OSAMA??? Oh get over yourself. Who was the one getting photos with Saddam, the apparent reincarnation of the devil himself? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Law Posted November 3, 2008 Author Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 I predict the race will be much closer than the law likes, due to the Bradley Effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect racist lol I don't think the Bradley effect will exist this time around. For one, the number of undecideds is much less (that's the group that the so-called 'Bradley Effect' was caused by). The second thing is... if the Bradley effect existed, we should have seen it very clearly in the primary races. Additionally, there are plenty of reasons why one would say they would not vote for Obama that do not involve racism. I just think that this "Bradley Effect" is being overstated and I am not even sure it ever did exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pantaloons Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 CNN has an really fun Electoral Vote Calculator For informed opinion, these pundits from ABC seem to be putting Obama at a minimum of around 320 electoral votes, with roughly +8 in the Senate and +25 in the house. I'm inclined to agree. I think it'd be hilarious (and painful) if Arizona ended up being called really late. Apparently, If Obama wins Indiana at 6 and Virginia at 7 (both toss-ups but trending Obama), Obama only needs to win ONE of EITHER: 1. Florida 2. Ohio 3. North Carolina ...at 8pm and he pretty much locks it up. I think it's insane that Obama changes things so much that he could win the election WITHOUT winning Florida AND Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pantaloons Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 This is my fairly conservative (and extremely generous for McCain) layman's guess of Tuesday night: Edit: Oh, and something for the Lost fans: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoMed Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 Anyone else feel this topic is unfortunate? Isn't this the CANADIAN Premed forum? Too bad we couldn't have had this discussion regarding our own country's leadership; in a way that would DIRECTLY effect us all. Dion vs. Harper vs. Layton vs. May vs. Duceppe may be more bland but at least it is relevent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pantaloons Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 Well, you're certainly welcome to start a new thread about Harper's new cabinet or the beginnings of the Liberal leadership race if you'd like. We've discussed Canadian Politics before; however, I'd disagree that the American election doesn't affect us. Any cursory glance of the past 8 years shows that it affects the world. Besides, some of this electoral college talk is just amusing--like discussing stats in hockey. If you'd like a new discussion, then start one. It's a forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrgreek Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 there will still be a bradley effect...it just won't cost the election...isn't obama ahead by 11%? he'll prolly win by 2-5% come election day... ahahahah pantaloons, love ur avatar... even though i agree u were generous to mccain...i think come election day, obama won't carry virginia, and pa, and ohio...maybe 2 out of the 3...(he still wins, thankfully).... the real tossup is gonna be florida... which i wouldn't easily give to mccain nor obama... i have the same to say about nevada, coloroda and new mexico,,,i think obama will get 2 out of the 3... (co and one other)... call me a skeptic, but tomorrow we will know this is for LoMed...i wouldn't necessarily call it 'unfortunate' we didn't have the same for the canadian... all major parties were promising major funds for doctors and healthcare in general which either people did know that, so there wasn't much debate, or people didn't know that, and so no debate... also down south has an effect on us (afghanistan, trade) vs no affect on us (their healthcare, but obviously we are curious of it, because of the reason of this forum)... as for Duceppe, as an Ontarian, I gotta say, he's got balls, and he won the canadian debates, hands down...ahahahahahhahahahahaa (im being serious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoMed Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 Well, you're certainly welcome to start a new thread about Harper's new cabinet or the beginnings of the Liberal leadership race if you'd like. We've discussed Canadian Politics before; however, I'd disagree that the American election doesn't affect us. Any cursory glance of the past 8 years shows that it affects the world. Besides, some of this electoral college talk is just amusing--like discussing stats in hockey. If you'd like a new discussion, then start one. It's a forum. I agree that American Politics affects us; however, my point is that if we put this much effort into our own political system then maybe things would be better for us. For example, people complain about med school admissions/doctor shortages, but don't really do anything about it: (This can be witnessed by the extremely low voter turonout). It is frustrating that when we, as Canadians, have a political voice for our own government there is electoral apathy, but there is excitement about American politics when we can't have a political voice.. My point is not to criticize the thread but only to point out the irony that we ALL know MORE about American politics (including myself). I also agree it can be fun to guess the outcomes of the votes----it was just food for thought. PS I hope that Obama wins, for the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoMed Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 there will still be a bradley effect...it just won't cost the election...isn't obama ahead by 11%? he'll prolly win by 2-5% come election day... ahahahah pantaloons, love ur avatar... even though i agree u were generous to mccain...i think come election day, obama won't carry virginia, and pa, and ohio...maybe 2 out of the 3...(he still wins, thankfully).... the real tossup is gonna be florida... which i wouldn't easily give to mccain nor obama... i have the same to say about nevada, coloroda and new mexico,,,i think obama will get 2 out of the 3... (co and one other)... call me a skeptic, but tomorrow we will know this is for LoMed...i wouldn't necessarily call it 'unfortunate' we didn't have the same for the canadian... all major parties were promising major funds for doctors and healthcare in general which either people did know that, so there wasn't much debate, or people didn't know that, and so no debate... also down south has an effect on us (afghanistan, trade) vs no affect on us (their healthcare, but obviously we are curious of it, because of the reason of this forum)... as for Duceppe, as an Ontarian, I gotta say, he's got balls, and he won the canadian debates, hands down...ahahahahahhahahahahaa (im being serious) Duceppe was hilarious! Pointing out that he and two others there were not going to win the election---I loved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulhammer Posted November 3, 2008 Report Share Posted November 3, 2008 I agree that American Politics affects us; however, my point is that if we put this much effort into our own political system then maybe things would be better for us. For example, people complain about med school admissions/doctor shortages, but don't really do anything about it: (This can be witnessed by the extremely low voter turonout). The thing is, as far as I could tell, none of the parties in this go round had any sort of plan for fixing the health care system short of "We'll hire more doctors and nurses!" If Canadian parties really want to get people excited about politics in Canada, they need to start electing leaders with charisma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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