Jump to content
Premed 101 Forums
Sign in to follow this  
The Law

November 4, 2008 - Historic Election Night Reaction Thread!

Recommended Posts

The big day is coming!!! Countdown until Obama wins... :D

 

Share your thoughts, concerns, etc!

 

Let's also play the predictions game:

 

Predict outcome of:

Pennsylvania

Virginia

North Carolina

Ohio

Florida

Colorado

Nevada

Indiana

New Hampshire

 

Do you forsee any shockers? :eek:

 

fivethirtyeight.com's current predictions:

1102_bigmap.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Predictions...

 

Obama wins:

Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Hampshire - Decisive wins

North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio - Close Wins

 

McCain wins:

Missouri, Indiana, Florida - Close wins

 

Potential shockers:

-Obama sweep is possible due to his great ground work (he has a much, much more elaborate groung game than McCain) and early lead in the advanced polls

-Obama may be able to pull off a major upset in Georgia

-McCain could win Pennsylvania/North Carolina and give some challenge to Obama

-Florida is very, very close... but Obama has a better ground game. In general, Florida has been favouring McCain... but the financial crises has seen Obama take the lead and a subsequent tightening of the race. It's anyone's game!

-Missouri may actually end up not voting for the winner of the contest! So much for the saying, "as Missouri goes, so does the nation"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FiveThirtyEight has McCain up to a 6.3% chance at winning this thing. :eek: I was sleeping a lot better when it was down around 2%.

 

I'm giving both Florida and Ohio to McCain, but other than that I agree with The Law's predictions. Nothing to base that on but my gut. Of course, none of these polls consider the possible illegitimacy of the election process, so I guess anything can happen. :P

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Haha... I was sleeping better with it at 2% too. It's all because of tightening at Pennsylvania. It's not going to tip though... but if any upset were to happen, that's what I'd be watching for!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I pray that McCain doesn't win purely because there is a chance that Palin could become president...

 

I've also heard rumblings that alot of voters are reluctant to vote for Obama based on race - I thought we were past that garbage!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pennsylvania - Obama

Virginia - Obama

North Carolina - Obama

Ohio - Obama

Florida - Obama

Colorado - Obama

Nevada - Obama

Indiana - McCain

New Hampshire - Obama

 

There are other states in contention, most were McCain but now are iffy; including his home state of Arizona, Missouri and North Dakota. I think McCain will win ND and Arizona but will lose Missouri.

 

Anyways, unless McCain single handedly finds Bin Laden, cures cancer or plays a jedi mind trick on all US votes.. it's Obama by a landslide.

 

 

btw, Fox news is claiming Obama fathered two black children.

 

 

 

 

 

 

...comic genius!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I predict the race will be much closer than the law likes,

 

due to the Bradley Effect http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

 

racist lol

 

I don't think the Bradley effect will exist this time around. For one, the number of undecideds is much less (that's the group that the so-called 'Bradley Effect' was caused by). The second thing is... if the Bradley effect existed, we should have seen it very clearly in the primary races. Additionally, there are plenty of reasons why one would say they would not vote for Obama that do not involve racism. I just think that this "Bradley Effect" is being overstated and I am not even sure it ever did exist.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CNN has an really fun Electoral Vote Calculator

 

For informed opinion, these pundits from ABC seem to be putting Obama at a minimum of around 320 electoral votes, with roughly +8 in the Senate and +25 in the house.

 

I'm inclined to agree.

I think it'd be hilarious (and painful) if Arizona ended up being called really late.

 

 

Apparently, If Obama wins Indiana at 6 and Virginia at 7 (both toss-ups but trending Obama), Obama only needs to win ONE of EITHER:

1. Florida

2. Ohio

3. North Carolina

...at 8pm and he pretty much locks it up.

 

I think it's insane that Obama changes things so much that he could win the election WITHOUT winning Florida AND Ohio!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone else feel this topic is unfortunate? Isn't this the CANADIAN Premed forum? Too bad we couldn't have had this discussion regarding our own country's leadership; in a way that would DIRECTLY effect us all. Dion vs. Harper vs. Layton vs. May vs. Duceppe may be more bland but at least it is relevent.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, you're certainly welcome to start a new thread about Harper's new cabinet or the beginnings of the Liberal leadership race if you'd like.

 

We've discussed Canadian Politics before; however, I'd disagree that the American election doesn't affect us. Any cursory glance of the past 8 years shows that it affects the world.

 

Besides, some of this electoral college talk is just amusing--like discussing stats in hockey.

 

If you'd like a new discussion, then start one. It's a forum.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

there will still be a bradley effect...it just won't cost the election...isn't obama ahead by 11%? he'll prolly win by 2-5% come election day...

 

ahahahah pantaloons, love ur avatar... even though i agree u were generous to mccain...i think come election day, obama won't carry virginia, and pa, and ohio...maybe 2 out of the 3...(he still wins, thankfully).... the real tossup is gonna be florida... which i wouldn't easily give to mccain nor obama... i have the same to say about nevada, coloroda and new mexico,,,i think obama will get 2 out of the 3... (co and one other)... call me a skeptic, but tomorrow we will know ;)

 

this is for LoMed...i wouldn't necessarily call it 'unfortunate' we didn't have the same for the canadian... all major parties were promising major funds for doctors and healthcare in general which either people did know that, so there wasn't much debate, or people didn't know that, and so no debate... also down south has an effect on us (afghanistan, trade) vs no affect on us (their healthcare, but obviously we are curious of it, because of the reason of this forum)...

 

as for Duceppe, as an Ontarian, I gotta say, he's got balls, and he won the canadian debates, hands down...ahahahahahhahahahahaa (im being serious)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, you're certainly welcome to start a new thread about Harper's new cabinet or the beginnings of the Liberal leadership race if you'd like.

 

We've discussed Canadian Politics before; however, I'd disagree that the American election doesn't affect us. Any cursory glance of the past 8 years shows that it affects the world.

 

Besides, some of this electoral college talk is just amusing--like discussing stats in hockey.

 

If you'd like a new discussion, then start one. It's a forum.

 

I agree that American Politics affects us; however, my point is that if we put this much effort into our own political system then maybe things would be better for us. For example, people complain about med school admissions/doctor shortages, but don't really do anything about it: (This can be witnessed by the extremely low voter turonout). It is frustrating that when we, as Canadians, have a political voice for our own government there is electoral apathy, but there is excitement about American politics when we can't have a political voice.. My point is not to criticize the thread but only to point out the irony that we ALL know MORE about American politics (including myself). I also agree it can be fun to guess the outcomes of the votes----it was just food for thought.

 

PS I hope that Obama wins, for the record.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
there will still be a bradley effect...it just won't cost the election...isn't obama ahead by 11%? he'll prolly win by 2-5% come election day...

 

ahahahah pantaloons, love ur avatar... even though i agree u were generous to mccain...i think come election day, obama won't carry virginia, and pa, and ohio...maybe 2 out of the 3...(he still wins, thankfully).... the real tossup is gonna be florida... which i wouldn't easily give to mccain nor obama... i have the same to say about nevada, coloroda and new mexico,,,i think obama will get 2 out of the 3... (co and one other)... call me a skeptic, but tomorrow we will know ;)

 

this is for LoMed...i wouldn't necessarily call it 'unfortunate' we didn't have the same for the canadian... all major parties were promising major funds for doctors and healthcare in general which either people did know that, so there wasn't much debate, or people didn't know that, and so no debate... also down south has an effect on us (afghanistan, trade) vs no affect on us (their healthcare, but obviously we are curious of it, because of the reason of this forum)...

 

as for Duceppe, as an Ontarian, I gotta say, he's got balls, and he won the canadian debates, hands down...ahahahahahhahahahahaa (im being serious)

 

Duceppe was hilarious! Pointing out that he and two others there were not going to win the election---I loved it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree that American Politics affects us; however, my point is that if we put this much effort into our own political system then maybe things would be better for us. For example, people complain about med school admissions/doctor shortages, but don't really do anything about it: (This can be witnessed by the extremely low voter turonout).

 

The thing is, as far as I could tell, none of the parties in this go round had any sort of plan for fixing the health care system short of "We'll hire more doctors and nurses!"

 

If Canadian parties really want to get people excited about politics in Canada, they need to start electing leaders with charisma.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×