Nervous about number of unmatched CMGs

[la marzocco]

Heard through the grapevines that there are 222 CMGs unmatched from round 1 [2017: 189 after 1st iteration].  

[indefatigable]

26 minutes ago, la marzocco said:

Heard through the grapevines that there are 222 CMGs unmatched from round 1 [2017: 189 after 1st iteration].  

That’s absolutely brutal - maybe the grapevine isn’t accurate though?  Last year there were 219 spots available after R-1; this year 228, ie an increase of  ~10 spots, but for potentially ~30 more CMGs.  Given that there were only 16 IMG vacancies after the first round last year, even if all of those got filled up this year, it still seems short - AFAIK there wasn’t any further increase in Med students or further decrease in residency spots.  Maybe I’ve missed something though.  

[rmorelan]

38 minutes ago, la marzocco said:

Heard through the grapevines that there are 222 CMGs unmatched from round 1 [2017: 189 after 1st iteration].  

....ouch 

predictable I suppose but still ouch if true

There are what 228 remaining spots in the second round? Ignoring all possible IMG applicants, just look at that math

[nervousnellie]

Those numbers are correct. 222 unmatched after first round. U of T had 10% of their class go unmatched, 26 students.

[BoopityBoop]

10 minutes ago, nervousnellie said:

Those numbers are correct. 222 unmatched after first round. U of T had 10% of their class go unmatched, 26 students.

That has been the case for UofT last year as well.

[mononoke]

Last year it was 18, increased this year...it probably didn't help that several unmatched people last year also joined the match this year

[Borborygmi]

23 hours ago, rmorelan said:

....ouch 

predictable I suppose but still ouch if true

There are what 228 remaining spots in the second round? Ignoring all possible IMG applicants, just look at that math

It's really nasty and likely only to get worse in years to come... some really great people in my class did not match. I feel for them. I also realized through the CaRMS tour that another factor is personality. Once you get an interview somewhere, a really large part of the match is how you connect with your interviewers. It doesn't much matter who you are on paper whether it's # of publications, PhD, etc. if there isn't good chemistry. Inevitably, the process seems to favour extroverts. I feel very fortunate to have matched and feel horrible for people that weren't as lucky.

From my understanding, last year 95% matched in 1st iteration. This year, 91.5% matched in first iteration. 8% of my class was unsuccessful in the first round. Only slightly above the national average.

[la marzocco]

On 2/26/2018 at 2:42 PM, rmorelan said:

when you mathematically know people cannot achieve a necessary step in the training process and yet you continue to advocate for producing more candidates I think you have a problem. Basically that part of our education system has become, or near to it, Americanized where the needs of the society and students has taken a back burner to the needs of the institution to acquire more resources to keep going. 

He is right in the sense that people can go and compete for things and the best and brightest as they put it will get what they want - within the limitation that defining the best and the brightest is subjective and that some people have clear advantages (anyone's Dad/Mom happen to have a law firm? Happen to have some connections etc). 

However this is a public education system - it is supported by huge tax subsidization and it make no sense in that model to produce vastly more people in an area than we need. That wastes money, wastes time, and wastes talent.

By lumping all graduates together and saying we all will endure competition is a slight of hand technique to group all forms of competition together - well they are NOT all the same and not the same at all. Most forms of job market competition don't have hard limits imposed not by the market but by a licensing body - particularly one setting up a significant number of its future members to fail. Only a fool would ignore the impact of the end job market on their choices - it doesn't mean they won't carry on regardless but of course you should be afraid of something that can make years of your hard work and massive sums of money useless.    

 

On 2/26/2018 at 3:34 PM, JohnGrisham said:

Yep, just look at the US. Opening up a med school is just a cash cow, and ancillary administrators rake in their exorbitant salaries on the backs of govt funded student loans to the tune of 250k+USD. 

Ford government rejects Ryerson’s plan for new law school.

The Ontario government has rejected Ryerson University’s bid to fund a new law school, the latest blow to Ontario universities following the cancellation of three proposed satellite campuses and a francophone university.

The Globe and Mail learned that Training, Colleges and Universities Minister Merrilee Fullerton reviewed the proposal and concluded, based on a number of factors including a surplus of students for articling positions, modest wage growth and projected job openings, that another law school in the province isn’t needed.

“Our government has a mandate to restore respect for taxpayers and tax dollars. Part of that process is making sure that the government’s services and programs are efficient, effective, and conducive to job creation,” Ms. Fullerton said in a statement provided to The Globe.

Good riddance.

[ArchEnemy]

17 hours ago, la marzocco said:

 

Ford government rejects Ryerson’s plan for new law school.

The Ontario government has rejected Ryerson University’s bid to fund a new law school, the latest blow to Ontario universities following the cancellation of three proposed satellite campuses and a francophone university.

The Globe and Mail learned that Training, Colleges and Universities Minister Merrilee Fullerton reviewed the proposal and concluded, based on a number of factors including a surplus of students for articling positions, modest wage growth and projected job openings, that another law school in the province isn’t needed.

“Our government has a mandate to restore respect for taxpayers and tax dollars. Part of that process is making sure that the government’s services and programs are efficient, effective, and conducive to job creation,” Ms. Fullerton said in a statement provided to The Globe.

Good riddance.

According to my friends are recent graduates of law school, this is very true.

Articling positions are scarce and many graduates have troubles finding articling positions. Similar to residency, they are cannot be called to the bar without completing their articleship. 

Toronto already has 2 excellent law schools. There's no need for a 3rd one.

[VigoVirgo]

17 hours ago, la marzocco said:

 

Ford government rejects Ryerson’s plan for new law school.

The Ontario government has rejected Ryerson University’s bid to fund a new law school, the latest blow to Ontario universities following the cancellation of three proposed satellite campuses and a francophone university.

The Globe and Mail learned that Training, Colleges and Universities Minister Merrilee Fullerton reviewed the proposal and concluded, based on a number of factors including a surplus of students for articling positions, modest wage growth and projected job openings, that another law school in the province isn’t needed.

“Our government has a mandate to restore respect for taxpayers and tax dollars. Part of that process is making sure that the government’s services and programs are efficient, effective, and conducive to job creation,” Ms. Fullerton said in a statement provided to The Globe.

Good riddance.

Jesus, the last thing Canada needs is another damn law school. How about increased funding for residency positions and another medical school? That would actually benefit the population.

[IMislove]

18 minutes ago, VigoVirgo said:

Jesus, the last thing Canada needs is another damn law school. How about increased funding for residency positions and another medical school? That would actually benefit the population.

 

Another medical school? Hell nah dawg, we already have too close a ratio of med students to residency positions, same problem. We just need more residency positions, and maybe even decrease med school spots. Redistribution of residency spots from some specialities to more in-need ones would be warranted as well. I am of the opinion that we serve the community, and with all the money they pay for us to go to school, we do not get full control over the speciality we work in. You want control, go into another field, can't have your cake and eat it too. That, or go to the states lol.

[gangliocytoma]

39 minutes ago, IMislove said:

Another medical school? Hell nah dawg, we already have too close a ratio of med students to residency positions, same problem. We just need more residency positions, and maybe even decrease med school spots. Redistribution of residency spots from some specialities to more in-need ones would be warranted as well. I am of the opinion that we serve the community, and with all the money they pay for us to go to school, we do not get full control over the speciality we work in. You want control, go into another field, can't have your cake and eat it too. That, or go to the states lol.

I don't think we should feel as if the government is doing us a favour by partially funding medical studies. With the amount of taxes paid in this country, I don't see why our education should not be subsidized, considering that every single bachelor degree (including the ones that only get you a job at Starbucks) are subsidized by the taxpayer as well.

Whats the point of someone being forced to work in a specialty that they won't enjoy? They'll likely do a crappy job and burn out faster leaving another void to be filled. Not to mention, being in a career/specialty that you hate can lead to mental health issues down the road. 

Need is also not as simple as made out to be. We have tons of orthopods that have finished residency, done multiple fellowships, and are unemployed. Is this because they aren't "needed"? No, they are very much needed with all the joint replacements required to improve people's QOL, but the funds are not being allocated to open up more OR times. 

[Happy_go]

 

16 hours ago, IMislove said:

Another medical school? Hell nah dawg, we already have too close a ratio of med students to residency positions, same problem. We just need more residency positions, and maybe even decrease med school spots. Redistribution of residency spots from some specialities to more in-need ones would be warranted as well. I am of the opinion that we serve the community, and with all the money they pay for us to go to school, we do not get full control over the speciality we work in. You want control, go into another field, can't have your cake and eat it too. That, or go to the states lol.

Spends years trying to get into med school. Gets in this year and now wants less med school spots. 

[BernieMac]

.

[IMislove]

1 hour ago, getrich said:

 

Spends years trying to get into med school. Gets in this year and now wants less med school spots. 

Not now, knew about it as a possible solution for years, nothing new :). But after discussion with a friend the answer can change to it depends.

[Happy_go]

Just now, IMislove said:

Not now, knew about it as a possible solution for years, nothing new :). But after discussion with a friend the answer can change to it depends.

*"But after admission into Queen's Med and now looking out for my own concern for residency and jobs, the answer can change to it depends"

[IMislove]

1 minute ago, getrich said:

*"But after admission into Queen's Med and now looking out for my own concern for residency and jobs, the answer can change to it depends"

Oh sorry, I think you misread years, damn. It’s okay :).

[la marzocco]

No need to be snarky against @IMislove. Managing physician supply is a complex issue and pan-Canada physician supply planning has been lacking in many respects. We do need to examine what the appropriate mix of physicians (urban v. rural; specialities, etc.) and interprovincial differences make this even more difficult. Reduction of medical seats is a sensible solution unless there is an improvement in the graduate:residency spots ratio, no doubt. Quebec is cutting 17 medical school seats per year since last year for 3 years. You really don't want to create unemployed physicians. I believe there should be a balance between what we want and what society needs.

[Snowmen]

3 hours ago, getrich said:

*"But after admission into Queen's Med and now looking out for my own concern for residency and jobs, the answer can change to it depends"

It isn't like cuts to the amount of places in medical school a few years after he is admitted would have a significant effect on his job prospects, let alone his CaRMS odds.

Now, there are two options:

1) Reduce medical school spots and ensure that everyone admitted has a reallistic spot at matching and getting a decent job.

2) Admit the same amount of people we currently are, let them increase their debt levels and then have some of them end up without a residency.

Are you really going to argue that option 2 is better than option 1? Of course, an "ideal" option 3 would allow more (or as many) people in medical school, regardless of provincial needs, and increase the amount of residency spots so that all these students get to match where they want. Of course, that option 3 is not going to happen unless there is a massive change in health planning policies.

[Happy_go]

15 hours ago, Snowmen said:

It isn't like cuts to the amount of places in medical school a few years after he is admitted would have a significant effect on his job prospects, let alone his CaRMS odds.

Now, there are two options:

1) Reduce medical school spots and ensure that everyone admitted has a reallistic spot at matching and getting a decent job.

2) Admit the same amount of people we currently are, let them increase their debt levels and then have some of them end up without a residency.

Are you really going to argue that option 2 is better than option 1? Of course, an "ideal" option 3 would allow more (or as many) people in medical school, regardless of provincial needs, and increase the amount of residency spots so that all these students get to match where they want. Of course, that option 3 is not going to happen unless there is a massive change in health planning policies.

I agree. Once I'm admitted, I'll advocate for closing off medical school spots too! Taking a page out of the @IMislove book!

[IMislove]

1 hour ago, getrich said:

I agree. Once I'm admitted, I'll advocate for closing off medical school spots too! Taking a page out of the @IMislove book!

[Happy_go]

26 minutes ago, IMislove said:

Truce 

[indefatigable]

On November 26, 2018 at 5:02 PM, la marzocco said:

No need to be snarky against @IMislove. Managing physician supply is a complex issue and pan-Canada physician supply planning has been lacking in many respects. We do need to examine what the appropriate mix of physicians (urban v. rural; specialities, etc.) and interprovincial differences make this even more difficult. Reduction of medical seats is a sensible solution unless there is an improvement in the graduate:residency spots ratio, no doubt. Quebec is cutting 17 medical school seats per year since last year for 3 years. You really don't want to create unemployed physicians. I believe there should be a balance between what we want and what society needs.

 I think part of the issue is the provincial/national divide.  In one sense, it's a national problem; in another, it needs provincial action.  Besides QC cutting seats, NS has added a number of residency positions in the past couple of years and last year the Canadian military stepped up.  

So I don’t think it’s fair to ask for provinces like NS to cut seats when they have a chronic doctor shortage and have added residency positions.

 I spent a few minutes to look at the ratio of residency positions to med school seats by province and school based on number of CMG-eligible CaRMS positions to a) entering class size & also b) participating CMGs from 2018  (including backlog).  

It's not a straightforward question because of seat changes, repeats, backlog, etc.. but it does give an idea.  

BC & ON are in negative/borderline balance situation.  NL is at 1:1 exactly.  QC is only slightly positive - so it did need to cut seats.  Other provinces AB, MB, NS & SASK are over 1.1.  NS is at 1.3 (highest ratio).

Residency spots to medical seats

2nd column considers participants in 2018 & 3rd uses entering class size.

AB    1.14    1.11

BC    0.98    1.00

MAN    1.15    1.13

NL    1.00    1.00

NS    1.31    1.29

ON    0.98    1.04

QC    1.03    1.05

SASK1.13    1.12

In terms of individual schools in ascending order to parity (using entering class size): Western (0.84), McMaster (0.92), NOSM (0.92), Ottawa (0.97) then NL (1:1), UBC (1:1).  ON is complex since UofT has a relative surplus at 1.3, but this still gives an idea.    
 
(Table 6 from CaRMS 2018 data + AFMC 2018 admission stats).

 In summary, if BC and ON increased residency positions or decreased medical seats, there probably wouldn’t be much of a problem.  ON residency reduction did hurt.   

N.B. AB & Sask both increased the number of medical seats.  

Also, QC empty spots  can be explained by notably net matching outside of QC (esp McGill) with other QC schools (esp UdeM) matching to McGill residency spots.  This creates a "gap" of unfilled French-speaking residency positions (which thus don't effectively contribute to CMG quota).    

MedRes.ods

[la marzocco]

On 11/25/2018 at 2:04 AM, la marzocco said:

 

Ford government rejects Ryerson’s plan for new law school.

The Ontario government has rejected Ryerson University’s bid to fund a new law school, the latest blow to Ontario universities following the cancellation of three proposed satellite campuses and a francophone university.

The Globe and Mail learned that Training, Colleges and Universities Minister Merrilee Fullerton reviewed the proposal and concluded, based on a number of factors including a surplus of students for articling positions, modest wage growth and projected job openings, that another law school in the province isn’t needed.

“Our government has a mandate to restore respect for taxpayers and tax dollars. Part of that process is making sure that the government’s services and programs are efficient, effective, and conducive to job creation,” Ms. Fullerton said in a statement provided to The Globe.

Good riddance.

Ok. I spoke too soon. 

Ryerson going ahead with law school after Ontario government rejects funding.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ryerson-going-ahead-with-law-school-after-ontario-government-rejects/

[xiphoid]

14 minutes ago, la marzocco said:

Ok. I spoke too soon. 

Ryerson going ahead with law school after Ontario government rejects funding.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-ryerson-going-ahead-with-law-school-after-ontario-government-rejects/

Of course, the disparity between the number of articling positions and the number of law students will be troubling (my law school friends are not happy to say the least), but I'm more curious to see how this will play out financially in the short term of these students considering they wouldn't be able to access OSAP. Even if tuition stays at the previously proposed $20k (which is looking impossible now), given the lack of OSAP, it probably doesn't make up for the $7k compared to Osgoode.