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2018 Waitlist Discussions


cardiomed

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2 minutes ago, med.123 said:

Does anyone have an idea of when we should first start seeing movement on the waitlist? Thanks :)

Either after April 9th (when the deposit is due)

After May 8th (Ontario Results)

June 15 (Deposit cannot be refunded)

Those are the three bumps I predict!

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I was asked to do some stats for the IP group too, similar to how I did it for the OOP group in another thread. Here it is:

The IP success rate ranges from 7.4% to 12.0%, based on the past 3 years of data. The 3-yr average being 10.1%. Success rate is defined as those received at least one offer of admission whether subsequently registered, declined or deferred. There were 861 IP applicants this year, so one can expect 64-103 total offers being made; average being 87 total offers. Assuming 79 offers have been made, the waitlist should move around 0-24 positions; average being 8.

tl;dr using the past 3 years as a proxy for what will happen this year, the waitlist should move to about spot 8. But please take this with a tremendous amount of salt. Lâche pas la patate! :) 

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Trying to inject a little more optimism for the waitlisted candidates: it's rather unlikely that the waitlist will only get to spot 8. It's more useful to simply look at past years' IP waitlist movement and take an average from there instead, as considering all statistics like total number of applicants introduces potentially misleading noise. In the past few years, the IP waitlist has moved to (in order of older to more recent): 15, 17, 17, 9, 26, 23, 15, 15. This gives an average of ~17. There are a couple fewer seats this year, but by only ~10%, so one should still expect an average movement of ~15. Keep in mind however that the stats for the older years are not necessarily correct, so take with a grain of salt. But do keep those potatoes in your hands :)Best of luck everyone!

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On top of this, I already know a couple of people deferring their spots already, they just need the get their deferral letters in! And a few more who prefer Ontario schools over McGill (friends from both IP and OOP)! So There will be movement in May for sure!!

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2 hours ago, Vendar said:

On top of this, I already know a couple of people deferring their spots already, they just need the get their deferral letters in! And a few more who prefer Ontario schools over McGill (friends from both IP and OOP)! So There will be movement in May for sure!!

Music to my ears :) thanks for the positivity!

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4 hours ago, MedP111 said:

Trying to inject a little more optimism for the waitlisted candidates: it's rather unlikely that the waitlist will only get to spot 8. It's more useful to simply look at past years' IP waitlist movement and take an average from there instead, as considering all statistics like total number of applicants introduces potentially misleading noise. In the past few years, the IP waitlist has moved to (in order of older to more recent): 15, 17, 17, 9, 26, 23, 15, 15. This gives an average of ~17. There are a couple fewer seats this year, but by only ~10%, so one should still expect an average movement of ~15. Keep in mind however that the stats for the older years are not necessarily correct, so take with a grain of salt. But do keep those potatoes in your hands :)Best of luck everyone!

I highly doubt it will move that much this year. I think what @la marzocco calculated could very well be indicative of this year's waitlist movement. We need to take into account the number of deferrals from prior year as well, alongside the reduction in seats.

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9 hours ago, Vendar said:

Either after April 9th (when the deposit is due)

After May 8th (Ontario Results)

June 15 (Deposit cannot be refunded)

Those are the three bumps I predict!

Don't forget when the french school results are released. Not sure when that is this year, though.

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3 minutes ago, kiterunner said:

I highly doubt it will move that much this year. I think what @la marzocco calculated could very well be indicative of this year's waitlist movement. We need to take into account the number of deferrals from prior year as well, alongside the reduction in seats.

Hmm, you raise a good point, we do have to take into consideration deferrals from last year, although it's quite unclear how many seats are actually available this year with that in mind. The website lists 79 available seats for IP this year, and doing the math shows that clearly we're not reaching the 175 total seats for Fall 2018 we're supposed to have (79 + 71 + 10 + ~5 = ~165), leading me to believe that 79 is after deducting for deferrals from last year already. If this is right, then compared to last year where the 79 was a 83, we know for sure that it is a mere 4 spot reduction (since deferrals are already taken into account), which is quite unlikely to take us from a 15 spot waitlist movement to a mere 8.

But there are a lot of assumptions here, so it's difficult to know what the numbers really are to compute more accurate guesses. I guess we'll see! :P

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According to statistics they only took 80 IPs this year. But as far as I know there are at least 41 people in waitlist!!!! Why do they put more than half of the admitted people in the waitlist!??? Does anyone know how it works? I am really confused

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3 minutes ago, YASMED said:

According to statistics they only took 80 IPs this year. But as far as I know there are at least 41 people in waitlist!!!! Why do they put more than half of the admitted people in the waitlist!??? Does anyone know how it works? I am really confused

I dont think they are mutually exclusive.. they can have as many on the waitlist as possible. Just more people to cycle through once the French schools start sending out offers.

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Just now, lmck said:

I dont think they are mutually exclusive.. they can have as many on the waitlist as possible. Just more people to cycle through once the French schools start sending out offers.

Like they should have an idea of how many people might refuse the offer right? So according to this numbers, they are predicting that more than half MIGHT refuse the offer... 

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8 minutes ago, YASMED said:

Like they should have an idea of how many people might refuse the offer right? So according to this numbers, they are predicting that more than half MIGHT refuse the offer... 

Also.. does the numbers mean there were no NTPs that made it?? Or did they just not fill that cell in yet?

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15 minutes ago, YASMED said:

Like they should have an idea of how many people might refuse the offer right? So according to this numbers, they are predicting that more than half MIGHT refuse the offer... 

It would be unwise of a school to waitlist exactly as many people as they predict they actually need. It doesn't harm them in any way to waitlist a lot more people than they need to, and in so doing they are forever guaranteed to not run into a situation where they have to re-contact people they had refused at first. There's nothing more to it.

5 minutes ago, lmck said:

Also.. does the numbers mean there were no NTPs that made it?? Or did they just not fill that cell in yet?

NTP's interview at the same time as Med-P's and will know in May.

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1 hour ago, MedP111 said:

It would be unwise of a school to waitlist exactly as many people as they predict they actually need. It doesn't harm them in any way to waitlist a lot more people than they need to, and in so doing they are forever guaranteed to not run into a situation where they have to re-contact people they had refused at first. There's nothing more to it.

NTP's interview at the same time as Med-P's and will know in May.

I still think they should go according to their previous year's statistics.never in their history we see half of the participants to refuse the offers. I think putting 1/4 of people in WL makes sense but more that half admitted seems weird to me. I am no 25 in WL and I honestly don't know were i stand and this makes me feel really nervous 

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15 hours ago, YASMED said:

I still think they should go according to their previous year's statistics.never in their history we see half of the participants to refuse the offers. I think putting 1/4 of people in WL makes sense but more that half admitted seems weird to me. I am no 25 in WL and I honestly don't know were i stand and this makes me feel really nervous 

I feel you.. I am not complaining at 14, but I'm still not sure it gets to me either with less places this year. After all of this, I'm struggling to go back to normal.

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On 3/29/2018 at 3:29 PM, obiwankenobi said:

The average for admitted OOP is only 3.92? 

 GPA is essentially irrelevant post-interview, and the average cGPA for OOP interview invites was essentially the same this year (3.94) as last year (3.95). If anything, this just shows that there is minimal correlation between GPA and Interview performance. 

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