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CaRMS Preliminary Match Results


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On 4/17/2018 at 2:43 PM, Aetherus said:

CaRMS has published the initial match results for 2018 First and Second Iteration:

http://www.carms.ca/pdfs/2018-R-1-data-snapshot-EN.pdf

Thanks for posting these, always good to get that first look into the data.

The prelim data is typically too general to draw too many novel conclusions, but a few things stand out here that I don't think were available in previous years' data. First, the 2nd round truly is unreliable, even for current-year CMGs. That previous-year grads do better in the 1st round than current-year CMGs do in the 2nd, at least this year, isn't shocking, but not what I would have expected. Even these stats probably underestimate the match rate for those in their 2nd CaRMS cycle, since unless Western's numbers are completely wrong, I'm certain "2018 grads" includes those who delayed graduation and went back for a 5th year. There seems to be a logic to the growing number of unmatched current-year grads choosing to forgo the 2nd round.

The announced residency spots for the military and in Ontario for unmatched graduates should help minimize this year's unmatched grads from spilling over as much into next year - which was part of the problem in this cycle's match - but these positions appear to be temporary while this is decidedly a long-term problem. 

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Some unmatched students, namely those in Ontario this year may be better off for having sat out the second iteration - they now have access to a whole bunch of new spots including desirable specialties like emergency and pediatrics, all with as-yet-to-be defined ROS that at least involves staying in Ontario, and probably within an hour's drive of Toronto. Nothing near as drastic as the 5-year ROS in those UBC spots.

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13 minutes ago, shematoma said:

Some unmatched students, namely those in Ontario this year may be better off for having sat out the second iteration - they now have access to a whole bunch of new spots including desirable specialties like emergency and pediatrics, all with as-yet-to-be defined ROS that at least involves staying in Ontario, and probably within an hour's drive of Toronto. Nothing near as drastic as the 5-year ROS in those UBC spots.

Yep, a perfect example as to why we need long-term solutions rather than short-term fixes. This adds a layer of uncertainty to future matches, especially those that appear competitive, and further hampers the transparency of the match process.

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5 minutes ago, ralk said:

Yep, a perfect example as to why we need long-term solutions rather than short-term fixes. This adds a layer of uncertainty to future matches, especially those that appear competitive, and further hampers the transparency of the match process.

I feel like this sort of thing actually "subverts" and undermines the match as much as anything else. How can we make a binding commitment upfront when the rules of the game can change the day after? I would almost go so far as to suggest that anyone who did a 2nd round match should be able to request a release so they can get one of these spots, of course that will never happen and would complicate things royally. But I can't help but feel resentful as someone who "settled" and was "lucky" to match to a 2nd round spot in part because everyone including my dean, mentors etc. kept saying it was all or nothing this round and if I didn't get something I'd be screwed for a whole year and that would be worse. Well it turns out it might not have been worse and may have been better.

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I think applicants next year need to know that all specialties, including FM, are competitive. Nonetheless, FM is still relatively less competitive than others (barring any red flags on your app, you should match if you have strong letters from family doctors and apply widely).

For applicants who are gunning for a non FM specialty, they have to be prepared to not match even to their back-ups. Back-ups are no longer a sure thing.

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11 minutes ago, ArchEnemy said:

I believe there are some errors in this preliminary report. I know several unmatched individuals who matched in the first iteration this year, yet the numbers on Page #9 do not reflect this. 

Did they do a 5th year? They may be thrown in with the 2018 grads if they didn't officially graduate, even though they're on their 2nd cycle. Not to say there won't be some errors in this report...

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2 hours ago, shematoma said:

Some unmatched students, namely those in Ontario this year may be better off for having sat out the second iteration - they now have access to a whole bunch of new spots including desirable specialties like emergency and pediatrics, all with as-yet-to-be defined ROS that at least involves staying in Ontario, and probably within an hour's drive of Toronto. Nothing near as drastic as the 5-year ROS in those UBC spots.

2 hours ago, shematoma said:

I feel like this sort of thing actually "subverts" and undermines the match as much as anything else. How can we make a binding commitment upfront when the rules of the game can change the day after? I would almost go so far as to suggest that anyone who did a 2nd round match should be able to request a release so they can get one of these spots, of course that will never happen and would complicate things royally. But I can't help but feel resentful as someone who "settled" and was "lucky" to match to a 2nd round spot in part because everyone including my dean, mentors etc. kept saying it was all or nothing this round and if I didn't get something I'd be screwed for a whole year and that would be worse. Well it turns out it might not have been worse and may have been better.

I understand your resentment, but no one could have predicted this. I hope you are able to find enjoyment in your circumstances. 

As they say the grass is always greener on the other side. I personally would have much rather preferred to match to some of the positions in the second iteration, than match in this round with a ROS contract (who knows where this would lead me? assuming the MOHLTC makes stringent criteria for this in a few years time), having potentially no fellowship opportunities, having to go through another process of applications and interviews, while studying for the MCCQE and starting electives next month (as there is never a 100% guarantee for matching despite what the govt may say), and importantly if I do get in, I may find out about the outcome weeks-month before July 1st.. Matching in the second round would have provided me with a peace of mind at this crucial MCCQE time and given me time to prepare for residency mentally and logistically, in terms of moving, etc.  

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