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Aetherus

CaRMS Preliminary Match Results

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9 minutes ago, yup said:

So there's 115 current year unmatched applicants this year? Up from 68 last year?

https://afmc.ca/news/2018-04-17

Plus at least another 24 from the year before unmatched(this is after round 1, the numbers get confusing with the round 2 stats since theres people who are lumped in that already have a residency but trying to match-transfer, or those who were CMG applying for second residency and only eligble to apply in round 2).. 

So next year, there will be a minimum of 115, more likely 130-140  prior year CMGs competing in round 1.  

Let the games begin.

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4 minutes ago, JohnGrisham said:

Plus at least another 24 from the year before unmatched(this is after round 1, the numbers get confusing with the round 2 stats since theres people who are lumped in that already have a residency but trying to match-transfer, or those who were CMG applying for second residency and only eligble to apply in round 2).. 

So next year, there will be a minimum of 115, more likely 130-140  prior year CMGs competing in round 1.  

Let the games begin.

They should just have 1 year where there are no IMG-designated spots in the first iteration just to clear the backlog. (half kidding, half not really) 

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Isn't the 115 a lot more than was even expected for this year? Given that people keep mentioning how it's supposed to reach 141 by 2021? It sounds as though the 141 is quite the underestimate if no changes are implemented. 

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6 minutes ago, yup said:

Isn't the 115 a lot more than was even expected for this year? Given that people keep mentioning how it's supposed to reach 141 by 2021? It sounds as though the 141 is quite the underestimate if no changes are implemented. 

There's a higher number of people who withdrew after the 1st iteration who didn't match [2018: 46; 2017: 31]. 

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9 minutes ago, yup said:

Isn't the 115 a lot more than was even expected for this year? Given that people keep mentioning how it's supposed to reach 141 by 2021? It sounds as though the 141 is quite the underestimate if no changes are implemented. 

While the absolute number is high, not all of those people participated in round 2. Still bad regardless, but the numbers are bit inflated by those who only want Plastics/Derm/Optho/etc and nothing else.

EDIT: lamarzocco beat me to it

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I feel like there are a lot of diehard competitive-specialty-only applicants that inflate the number of unmatched applicants.. A lot of those unmatched students in articles were going for specialties.. if you chose to apply only to specialties in first round and don't match, well you consciously made the decision that a) you wanted to see what was left over in second round b ) wanted to take a year off to reapply next year. If you go all in for your electives, you knowingly take the risk that you might not make it in a back up specialty. I am less sympathetic to those students, because they made the choice to go down that path.. I would like to see data on how many unmatched applicants only ranked specialties with 5 spots or less per faculty.

I don't doubt there are students that made safe back up plans and were still screwed over because of the 1.01:1 ratio of spots.. However, there's also a significant portion of students who reject considering family med.

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13 minutes ago, F508 said:

I feel like there are a lot of diehard competitive-specialty-only applicants that inflate the number of unmatched applicants.. A lot of those unmatched students in articles were going for specialties.. if you chose to apply only to specialties in first round and don't match, well you consciously made the decision that a) you wanted to see what was left over in second round b ) wanted to take a year off to reapply next year. If you go all in for your electives, you knowingly take the risk that you might not make it in a back up specialty. I am less sympathetic to those students, because they made the choice to go down that path.. I would like to see data on how many unmatched applicants only ranked specialties with 5 spots or less per faculty.

I don't doubt there are students that made safe back up plans and were still screwed over because of the 1.01:1 ratio of spots.. However, there's also a significant portion of students who reject considering family med.

You're making a case of who you feel sympathy for vs not, but the fact is that even if everyone did a backup strategy as you describe there would still be almost the same number of unmatched CMGs. Backing up doesn't solve the shortage of overall residency spots, it would just redistribute who goes unmatched. The numbers can be deceiving - almost all unfilled spots after 2 rounds are French-speaking family programs in Quebec.

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19 minutes ago, F508 said:

I feel like there are a lot of diehard competitive-specialty-only applicants that inflate the number of unmatched applicants.. A lot of those unmatched students in articles were going for specialties.. if you chose to apply only to specialties in first round and don't match, well you consciously made the decision that a) you wanted to see what was left over in second round b ) wanted to take a year off to reapply next year. If you go all in for your electives, you knowingly take the risk that you might not make it in a back up specialty. I am less sympathetic to those students, because they made the choice to go down that path.. I would like to see data on how many unmatched applicants only ranked specialties with 5 spots or less per faculty.

I don't doubt there are students that made safe back up plans and were still screwed over because of the 1.01:1 ratio of spots.. However, there's also a significant portion of students who reject considering family med.

The thing is, most of the english speaking FM spots were taken up in round 1 anyways. Some remain yes, but doing rural FM in manitoba isn't for everyone...I personally would still rank that over going unmatched but not everyone feels the same.

http://carms.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Table_39_Family_medicine_positions_Filled_Offered_and_Vacancies_for_CMGs_English.pdf

(2017 data, but assumingely similar this year)

EDIT: Shematoma beat me to it.

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1 hour ago, shematoma said:

You're making a case of who you feel sympathy for vs not, but the fact is that even if everyone did a backup strategy as you describe there would still be almost the same number of unmatched CMGs. Backing up doesn't solve the shortage of overall residency spots, it would just redistribute who goes unmatched. The numbers can be deceiving - almost all unfilled spots after 2 rounds are French-speaking family programs in Quebec.

Of course, I don't deny that there is a shortage of residency spots outside of Quebec. I'm simply saying that the number is inflated by those that would've not backed up regardless if there was a shortage or not. The current trend of decreasing specialty spots makes it that those who are less flexible with specialty choice are going to get squeezed out. I just wonder what portion of those applicants make up the unmatched pool.

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Just now, F508 said:

Of course, I don't deny that there is a shortage of residency spots outside of Quebec. I'm simply saying that the number is inflated by those that would've not backed up regardless if there was a shortage or not. The current trend of decreasing specialty spots makes it that those who are less flexible with specialty choice are going to get squeezed out. I just wonder what portion of those applicants make up the unmatched pool.

How is the number inflated? If there's a shortage of spots and all available spots outside Quebec are taken, then the students backing up aren't going to get spots anyways. If they backed up and got family spots, they'd just squeeze out other people. It's a zero sum game. If there were excess spots every year outside of Quebec and unmatched students then your argument would hold water.

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Some people decide not to rank family med first iteration. After they go unmatched, they decide to scramble for the remaining second iteration family med spots/other specialty spots. Well a certain amount of family med/other specialty spots in second iteration are filled by IMGs. So if the CMGs had ranked those spots first round, at the end of second iteration there could've been more CMGs matched.

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The nature of CaRMS makes it hard to backup. It's obvious to any PD if someone's primary intention is a competitive specialty; most of these students have 50-100% of their electives dedicated to that 1 specialty. Even if you are a good student completely happy to do FM, you have to be able to sell that to PDs who are going to be suspicious from the start. On top of that you can only do so many interviews at so many places. Dual applying will involve flying back and forth and sometimes there is literally not enough time to attend all of them if scheduling doesn't work out.

I do see your point, but I doubt it's a significant number of people in that position.

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Scary numbers for IMG, 46% match rate for current year grad (and I am sure the vast majority are CSAs), so >50% chance that you're stuck with huge debt and nothing to show for (unless they match to the US, hopefully).

 

Also just noticed NOSM lost their 100% match rate, is this the first year that happened?

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We made it into the Globe and Mail:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-more-canadian-medical-school-graduates-than-ever-failed-to-secure/

IMGs took 42 spots in the second round, which would have alleviated some of the shortages if they went instead to CMGs. But even if they didn't get any spots this year, we'd still have 115-42 = 73 unmatched CMGs. It seems we've reached a critical mass this year and we're starting to get the attention of governements.

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12 minutes ago, shematoma said:

We made it into the Globe and Mail:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-more-canadian-medical-school-graduates-than-ever-failed-to-secure/

IMGs took 42 spots in the second round, which would have alleviated some of the shortages if they went instead to CMGs. But even if they didn't get any spots this year, we'd still have 115-42 = 73 unmatched CMGs. It seems we've reached a critical mass this year and we're starting to get the attention of governements.

excellent - we have to keep at it really :)

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35 minutes ago, rmorelan said:

excellent - we have to keep at it really :)

If anyone is interested, the CFMS has an unmatched CMG taskforce which would benefit from input from provinces other than Ontario.

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35 minutes ago, crysally said:

If anyone is interested, the CFMS has an unmatched CMG taskforce which would benefit from input from provinces other than Ontario.

How can those of us from other provinces help? I'm someone who matched in the second iteration although not to my ideal specialty or location... I'm hoping that they will make more spots next year so that if I want to transfer or re-match the field is more open.

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6 hours ago, shematoma said:

How can those of us from other provinces help? I'm someone who matched in the second iteration although not to my ideal specialty or location... I'm hoping that they will make more spots next year so that if I want to transfer or re-match the field is more open. 

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadian-military-plans-to-nearly-triple-number-of-residents-it/

I think this is the type of national advocacy efforts they were working on so definitely getting some progress :)

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39 minutes ago, crysally said:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canadian-military-plans-to-nearly-triple-number-of-residents-it/

I think this is the type of national advocacy efforts they were working on so definitely getting some progress :)

Wow! I didn't know about the $150K signing bonus. And they're going to increase the # of residencies funded by the military from 18 to 50! How many will happen this year I wonder? Other than the 4 already announced at Queens, are there any others? Will CaRMS release any of us from our matches if we want to do this? (just kidding)

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16 hours ago, shematoma said:

Wow! I didn't know about the $150K signing bonus. And they're going to increase the # of residencies funded by the military from 18 to 50! How many will happen this year I wonder? Other than the 4 already announced at Queens, are there any others? Will CaRMS release any of us from our matches if we want to do this? (just kidding) 

4 spots at Queens and 2 spots at Ottawa, with UofA, UofC and UofT numbers TBD. I believe you can join at any point if you are already matched to a residency...the military will not be paying for your salary but you still get the signing bonus. I know a gen sx resident who is part of the reserves, so that is an option as well.

Again, I think there has been great discussion previously about what military medicine entails and it is definitely not for everyone. Also the next federal government is elected right around when you start your 4 year ROS so who knows what kind of wars we may find ourselves in at that point with the political climate these days.

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On 4/17/2018 at 2:43 PM, Aetherus said:

CaRMS has published the initial match results for 2018 First and Second Iteration:

http://www.carms.ca/pdfs/2018-R-1-data-snapshot-EN.pdf

Given the current trend and situation elsewhere in the country, we (Laval) got very good numbers with "only" 6 going unmacthed this year, and all 4 previous year graduates matching this year. 

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