UBC AQ (estimate) equations

[Jambon]

I calculated the new AQ equation for the 2017/2018 application cycle and thought I should share it with you all.

Couple thing to point out: 

• Super high and super low averages will not follow this equation and estimates of AQ will be off. With that said, calculations with averages between 82% to 93% yield accurate estimates. 
• The equation provides estimates only and data is compiled from past years' scores from rejected applicants
• The UBC system also takes into account any NAQ activities that you received course credit for into their AQ calculation. These equations do not take this into account. 
• 2017/2018 stats were compiled from a sample size of 6, but are still comparable to past year calculations generated with 10-20 data points.

Here are the equations (with other application cycles for comparison):

2017/2018: y = 1.582*AGPA - 111.6

2016/2017: y = 1.579*AGPA - 111.08

2015/2016: y = 1.626*AGPA - 115.7

Have fun and use responsibly!

 

[Neurophiliac]

Thanks for this! 

Though, did you check if R-squared was 1 for the linear regression?  I got different equations -- ones that result in lower estimated AQ compared to yours.  My sample size is about 20.

[Jambon]

1 hour ago, Neurophiliac said:

Thanks for this! 

Though, did you check if R-squared was 1 for the linear regression?  I got different equations -- ones that result in lower estimated AQ compared to yours.  My sample size is about 20.

Is that for 2017/2018? I only found 6 usable data points in the accepted/waitlisted/rejected thread and they had a regression of 0.9915. As for 2015/2016 and 2016/2017, I didn't calculate those equations and simply pulled them from other threads in the past. Would you mind sharing your equations?

[Neurophiliac]

Ok got it.  I'll post the results from old to new.  For the below, y is AQ and x is GPA or AGPA.

 

2015-2016 Cycle:  y = ( 1.5826 * x ) – 110.66

Notes:  N = 14   ;   R^2 = 1   ;   GPA/AGPA range = (80.90 - 91.27) %   ;   AQ range = 17.37 - 33.77

 

2016-2017 Cycle:  y = ( 1.5792 * x ) – 111.1

Notes:  N = 19   ;   R^2 = 1   ;   GPA/AGPA range = (79.60 - 93.13) %   ;   AQ range = 14.60 - 35.98

 

2017-2018 Cycle:  y = ( 1.6284 * x ) – 115.91

Notes:  N = 20   ;   R^2 = 1   ;   GPA/AGPA range = (78.34 - 93.12) %   ;   AQ range = 11.66 - 35.73

 

Example calculation:  If John Doe has 85.00% GPA or applicable AGPA, then John's AQ scores for previous application cycles would have likely been:

2015-2016  ==>  23.86

2016-2017  ==>  23.13

2017-2018  ==>  22.50

Result:  YIKES  

The AQ is on a dropping trend.  For John's case, he would have gone down 1.36 points from 2015/2016 to 2017/2018.  That's quite significant.

[Baljinderthecrow]

Does the AQ also take course load and difficulty into consideration? For e.g. If I take above a full course load each year, take many difficult upper year bio courses, and have multiple 0 credit courses (research practicums) with a 90% GPA, then will I get a higher AQ score than someone who took a normal full course load in a humanities program, just took the basic prereqs for UBC, has no 0 credit courses, and also has a 90% GPA? 

[Neurophiliac]

3 minutes ago, Baljinderthecrow said:

Does the AQ also take course load and difficulty into consideration? For e.g. If I take above a full course load each year, take many difficult upper year bio courses, and have multiple 0 credit courses (research practicums) with a 90% GPA, then will I get a higher AQ score than someone who took a normal full course load in a humanities program, just took the basic prereqs for UBC, has no 0 credit courses, and also has a 90% GPA? 

I don't know if it's fortunate or unfortunate (heated debate to this day), but UBC doesn't care.  Your AQ is solely coming from your OGPA or AGPA (if applicable).

However, I am speculating this is only true pre-interview.  It is true that your AQ is determined by your OGPA/AGPA, but for post-interview evaluations, adcom looks at everything.  THAT is when they truly look at your academics in detail.  For example, did applicant X take a full course load?  Did they have a stable GPA throughout their years, a decreasing trend, or an increasing trend?  If they lack recommended premed courses (AKA the old prerequisites), does their MCAT compensate?

Bottom line:  I believe it does matter how you choose your courses and how you obtained your overall academic average.

[frenchpress]

3 hours ago, Baljinderthecrow said:

Does the AQ also take course load and difficulty into consideration? For e.g. If I take above a full course load each year, take many difficult upper year bio courses, and have multiple 0 credit courses (research practicums) with a 90% GPA, then will I get a higher AQ score than someone who took a normal full course load in a humanities program, just took the basic prereqs for UBC, has no 0 credit courses, and also has a 90% GPA? 

They don't take the difficulty of courses into account pre interview for AQ score.

It's also important to remember that difficulty is subjective and science-based degrees in general are not inherently more difficult or more deserving of an interview. 

Achieving a 90% average in many humanities programs would be just as impressive to me as someone achieving 90% in a biology or sciences program. That's a difficult GPA to achieve in any program. I have taken plenty of humanities courses that had low averages rivalling the low averages in difficult pre-req science courses that I took. Many of my studio, writing and research courses also took considerably more effort and investment than my science courses. I agree with @Neurophiliac that post-interview it's therefore probably a lot more about stable GPA or GPA trends, demonstrated ability to handle science content (MCAT or courses), etc. And of course, what you do with the rest of your time (employment? volunteering? hobbies? etc) also matters a lot. 

[Neurophiliac]

By the way:

Quote

Post-Interview: All aspects of applicants’ files are looked at. The Admissions Selection Committee will consider that applicants, whatever their particular academic background, have demonstrated they are likely to perform well in the rigorous curriculum and case-based format of the program. Assessment of academic performance also includes reviewing trends in grades from year to year as well as senior undergraduate and graduate level achievements completed by application deadline.

Source:  https://mdprogram.med.ubc.ca/admissions/evaluation-criteria/