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Where Did the "It Takes An Average of 3 Cycles" Maxim Come From?


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Hello everyone, 

 

Sorry for what may strike older members as a silly question, but as a newbie, I've stumbled across this maxim a couple of times, in different forms, and was wondering where the evidence for it is, or where it originated?

 

I've seen it stated as 3 applications, 3 cycles, etc (big difference there!). Is there a post/document I'm missing somewhere (trust me, I looked), because when I look at schools that publish the age breakdowns I see tons of 21/22/23 yearolds, so unless the handful of 30+ yearold matriculants have applied since 19 to balance out all these 4th Year>Med, 1 Year out>Med matriculants and dragged up the average, I find this hard to believe. 

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Table F10 on this: https://afmc.ca/sites/default/files/documents/en/Publications/CMES/CMES2018-SectionF.pdf

The average applicant is 2.76 in 2017/2018 cycle. However if UofT actually submitted their data, I see that number closer to 2.80-2.82. Also, Dr. Ian Walker from Calgary has stated the ~3 cycles average multiple times as well. 

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23 hours ago, MedicineLCS said:

Hello everyone, 

 

Sorry for what may strike older members as a silly question, but as a newbie, I've stumbled across this maxim a couple of times, in different forms, and was wondering where the evidence for it is, or where it originated?

 

I've seen it stated as 3 applications, 3 cycles, etc (big difference there!). Is there a post/document I'm missing somewhere (trust me, I looked), because when I look at schools that publish the age breakdowns I see tons of 21/22/23 yearolds, so unless the handful of 30+ yearold matriculants have applied since 19 to balance out all these 4th Year>Med, 1 Year out>Med matriculants and dragged up the average, I find this hard to believe. 

Idk how true it actually is to be honest, but its not about the exact number, it is more to say that not everyone gets in on the first try. 

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