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1 minute ago, William Osler said:

As crazy as it sounds, I am 100% convinced that accepting applicants randomly or accepting applicants that were not accepted at other schools will not be detrimental to medical education or medicine in general. At that stage, those applicants will eventually be accepted if they persist 

Exactly. Like even looking at the interview rates at Mac alone, that's a <10% interview rate, well below the ACCEPTANCE averages everywhere else in the country. To be random at this stage is unlikely to make that large an impact.

 

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Since people found this funny, will update you on what I dreamed last night as it seems to be a continuation of that dream lol.... Dream:  So its med acceptance day, but for a weird reason w

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3 minutes ago, SoftTings said:

I find it hard to imagine Mac doing a lottery system because of the uproar that would cause. I mean, if that was something they were upfront about from the beginning then sure. But springing that on all the applicants as acceptances are being sent out would probably cause mass chaos

Who would cause the uproar? The handful of invited applicants that were rejected and did not have any other offers (remember Mac capacity is 203 and their waitlist moves to 330s out of 550)? Why would Mac care about anyone else's opinion anyways. If anything, it would be an interesting research. Mac was whacky enough to come up with the MMI and CASPer. I'm sure those ideas seemed insane then.

But I agree that none of us know what we're talking about and this is just bored premed neuroticism mixed with bored quarantine big brain energy to pass the time for me

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6 minutes ago, William Osler said:

As crazy as it sounds, I am 100% convinced that accepting applicants randomly or accepting applicants that were not accepted at other schools will not be detrimental to medical education or medicine in general. At that stage, those applicants will eventually be accepted if they persist 

Personally I don’t agree with a lottery. I think as an institution you have a responsibility to select the most competent applicants. Society is trusting you will do so. If you’re doing a lottery you have overseen that responsibility. Why even have an admissions at that point right? A computer can run the most fair lottery

edit: I agree it PROBABLY won’t affect much. But I wouldn’t be willing to bet on that uncertainty

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Casablanca said:

If you google the words "medical school admissions" and "lottery", you actually get some results.

https://www.mededpublish.org/manuscripts/2092

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4749643/

Seems like lottery systems to select medical school students isn't a completely new idea. Not saying that it is being used this year, but a lottery method might technically be "evidence-based" since it's used in other countries, particularly in Europe.

Just to clarify, I'm not saying that McMaster will be using a lottery system this year to select its incoming cohort.

When I first heard someone jokingly mention the idea, I thought it was ludicrous. However, after reading these articles, I don't think that a lottery system is an impossibility. Based on these articles and the other research that exists for lottery systems, using this approach would not completely lack evidence.

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Just now, RejectedAgain said:

I think as an institution you have a responsibility to select the most competent applicants. Society is trusting you will do so. 

Is a combination of GPA, CARS and CASPer predictive of competence? Does it still hold predictive value past a certain point (top 10%tile of applicants)? 

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Just now, William Osler said:

Who would cause the uproar? The handful of invited applicants that were rejected and did not have any other offers (remember Mac capacity is 203 and their waitlist moves to 330s out of 550)? Why would Mac care about anyone else's opinion anyways. If anything, it would be an interesting research. Mac was whacky enough to come up with the MMI and CASPer. I'm sure those ideas seemed insane then.

But I agree that none of us know what we're talking about and this is just bored premed neuroticism mixed with bored quarantine big brain energy to pass the time for me

Uproar may have been poor word choice. But I can personally say that I would be upset if I didn't get in because my GPA/MCAT/CASPer were not high enough, but I could accept it and can't really complain about fairness. If I didn't get to pursue my dream of becoming a physician (or at least had it put on hold) because of a lottery I would be far far more upset and angry

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Alternatively, what McMaster may have done (totally a guess here), is set a threshold casper score. So even if you have a 132, 4.0 and bad casper you would hypothetically make it to the top of the list with their newly invented formula, they wouldn’t extend an offer. Whereas someone with a 128, 3.8 and a casper score that meets ‘said’ threshold would actually receive an offer first.

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1 minute ago, Casablanca said:

Just to clarify, I'm not saying that McMaster will be using a lottery system this year to select its incoming cohort.

When I first heard someone jokingly mention the idea, I thought it was ludicrous. However, after reading these articles, I don't think that a lottery system is an impossibility. Based on these articles and the other research that exists for lottery systems, using this approach would not completely lack evidence.

I don't think they will either but it's not a bad idea especially as a one-off this pandemic, having already cancelled MMI. This might be the radical innovation that medical education needs. 

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1 minute ago, RejectedAgain said:

Personally I don’t agree with a lottery. I think as an institution you have a responsibility to select the most competent applicants. Society is trusting you will do so. If you’re doing a lottery you have overseen that responsibility. Why even have an admissions at that point right? A computer can run the most fair lottery

I mean if CASPer was to mean anything, people who got invited to the interview are already the top 10% of the applicant pool to McMaster in terms of what they're looking for.

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Just now, keener12345 said:

Alternatively, what McMaster may have done (totally a guess here), is set a threshold CARS score. So even if you have a 132, 4.0 and bad CARS you would hypothetically make it to the top of the list with their newly invented formula, they wouldn’t extend an offer. Whereas someone with a 128, 3.8 and a CARS score that meets ‘said’ threshold would actually receive an offer first.

believe you mean CASPer

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Just now, DrOtter said:

I mean if CASPer was to mean anything, people who got invited to the interview are already the top 10% of the applicant pool to McMaster in terms of what they're looking for.

Yeah that’s what makes the lottery at all viable I guess. But we already selected the top 10% of applicants, why don’t we trust ourselves to do it one more time ya know?

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Whether or not forming a class of random applicants is likely to affect the quality of the class isn't the point. It's in McMaster's best interest to at least attempt to get the highest quality of medical students that they can. They don't care about "saving" applicants with only 1 interview, it's not their concern to do that. They wouldn't take a random sample of applicants either, because this doesn't even attempt to guarantee any kind of quality. 

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I do agree with a threshold approach for most admissions things. I don't believe that a cGPA of 3.98 and 3.99 should have a difference. They should all be in bins of maybe 0.02 (3.98-4.0).

The difference between 132 and 131 CARS is only a few questions and the MCAT themselves give a confidence interval of scores with the score report. Anything above 129 should be treated equal. I do like UWO's approach in this regard of batching 3.7+ and 128+ although I do think that 3.7+ is too wide a range.

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1 minute ago, theevilsloth said:

Whether or not forming a class of random applicants is likely to affect the quality of the class isn't the point. It's in McMaster's best interest to get the highest quality of medical students that they can. They don't care about "saving" applicants with only 1 interview, it's not their concern to do that. They wouldn't take a random sample of applicants either, because this doesn't even attempt to guarantee any kind of quality. 

I would argue that the top 10% of applicants is a homogenous population and without any supplementary information (MMI, ABS, CAF), there would be no difference in the applicants. 

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5 minutes ago, SoftTings said:

If I didn't get to pursue my dream of becoming a physician (or at least had it put on hold) because of a lottery I would be far far more upset and angry

 

But is having your ABS and essays being subjectively rated by reviewers any less random? :wacko:

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1 minute ago, William Osler said:

I would argue that the top 10% of applicants is a homogenous population and without any supplementary information (MMI, ABS, CAF), there would be no difference in the applicants. 

If I'm Mac, I'm not going to miss out on the student that has a 4.0 GPA, a 132 in CARS, and 100th percentile CASPer. It just doesn't make sense, especially since Mac clearly really believes in CASPer as a tool to evaluate candidates

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Just now, William Osler said:

Is this student different from one with a 3.8GPA, a 129 in CARS and a whatever percentile CASPer? No one can definitively answer that but my gut feeling is no. 

At worst, the student is not different, and it's as if they had used a lottery. At best, they have, in some way, selected for a higher quality class. 

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1 minute ago, William Osler said:

Is this student different from one with a 3.8GPA, a 129 in CARS and a whatever percentile CASPer? No one can definitively answer that but my gut feeling is no. 

And who's to say that person with perfect stats would have done well in the MMI? For all we know, the person with lower stats may become a better doctor. Nobody really knows without meeting in person, so maybe a lottery is the best way to ensure everyone has a fair chance.

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