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22 minutes ago, William Osler said:

Is anyone's first choice school Mac anymore? (If so, why?) Has the lottery and cancellation of MMI changed your perspective on them?

For me, I think Mac is still my first choice. Its a 3 year program which is good for someone that is a little older and for saving money as well. Additionally, its close to the GTA. 

I think the lottery thing just made me hesitate a bit. It may be slightly weird to be in a class of people, some of whom were selected by random. But I think the other factors I mentioned (such as location, 3 years) are more important than Mac's selection process. 

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Since people found this funny, will update you on what I dreamed last night as it seems to be a continuation of that dream lol.... Dream:  So its med acceptance day, but for a weird reason w

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10 minutes ago, MedicineLCS said:

I'll preface my point by repeating that speculation is pointless (but it does pass the time!). That being said. 

The % of buttons in the thread has remained consistently between 50-60% for Mac interviewees (32 as of my last count). If there are still a 100 applicants who get offers this percentage skyrockets. Even if you believe in response bias/a more competitive pool (which I do) that would be extremely high for first round offers. 

The whole "high CARS/GPA=top 100" is missing that CASPer makes up a solid 1/3rd of the preinterview score. It's perfectly possible that the majority consists of people with high-mid stats (130+, 3.8+) who really nailed CASPer. At the same time, it's possible the person with the 4.0/132 bombed CASPer (comparatively) and was carried to an interview on their stats largely. Before making theories it's worth checking the assumptions, which I don't think are valid. 

I did something similar to the stats grouping previously posted, and I can tell you, when you sort by GPA or CARS score it's not "no button" from the top to some random place in the middle where they shop up. Buttons pop up, randomly seemingly, up and down the range of possible scores reported. Someone with a 132 has a button. Someone with a 4.0 has the button. Both are not slouches in the other number. Add in self-reported scores bias and it's quite apparent that it's all over the range. Add in a MASSIVE CASPer black box and I think making theories is pointless. The button is tied to acceptances in the past and in videos, we'll see if that's true on May 12th. 

Rn in the poll 50 people have already replied saying they got a button. If there are only 100ish lottery seats, a 50% response rate is very high.  
I agree, we have a bias to assume people with high gpa, high cars automatically should be top 100. In reality, if they bombed Casper they could have the same ranking as someone with okay stats 

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* UPDATED with Proxy Casper Measure *:)

I divided you guys into 3 groups. 

1. People with Button

GPA 3.58 / 131 - BUTTON 

GPA 3.83 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.92 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.93 /129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.6 / 130 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 125 - BUTTON

GPA 3.79 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.75 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.85 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.91 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.92 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.90 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.91 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.95 / 130 (did not apply to Casper-heavy school) - BUTTON

GPA 3.99 / 129 (did not apply to Casper-heavy school) - BUTTON

GPA 3.85 / 131 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 130 (Rejection from UOttawa) - BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 130 (Rejection from UOttawa) - BUTTON

 

2. People without Button with higher stats  (3.95+/130+ OR 3.97+/129+)

GPA 3.98 / 132 (Invitation from UOttawa)- NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 131 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 4.0 / 131(Casper ?) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.95+(?) / 131 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 4.0 / 129 (Casper?)- NO BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 3.98 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 132 (Casper?) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.95  / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

 

3. People without Button with similar stats with people with Button

GPA 3.87 / 125 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 128 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.84 / 132 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.89 / 129 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.90 / 129 - NO BUTTON

The button should mean something, and I am really excited to see which one (group 1 or 3 ) will be accepted at Mac with group 2. Every one of us must be curious about it, so let's add button/no button on the acceptance/ rejection thread. 

Great Casper score seems to be required in addition to the high GPA and CARS stats to be in the top 100.

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1 minute ago, pureblue said:

There are IP applicants earlier in the thread who have 4.0/130+ and got an interview at Manitoba as OOP, so at LEAST average-strong CASPer since it makes up 30% of pre-interview score. These applicants are definitely top 100.. I'm guessing that the button is likely meaningless

And they have a button?

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8 minutes ago, pureblue said:

There are IP applicants earlier in the thread who have 4.0/130+ and got an interview at Manitoba as OOP, so at LEAST average-strong CASPer since it makes up 30% of pre-interview score. These applicants are definitely top 100.. I'm guessing that the button is likely meaningless

OOP Manitoba is interesting. They have to have a higher Casper score than most other applicants that also applied to Manitoba in their pool.....aka other people with high gpa/cars. 
 

we have no idea how their Casper score compares to a larger group of applicants (5000) of which there's a different demographic of people, since Casper scoring is percentile based.

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4 minutes ago, pureblue said:

There are IP applicants earlier in the thread who have 4.0/130+ and got an interview at Manitoba as OOP, so at LEAST average-strong CASPer since it makes up 30% of pre-interview score. These applicants are definitely top 100.. I'm guessing that the button is likely meaningless

1 minute ago, lizaloo223 said:

we have no idea how their Casper score compares to a larger group of applicants (5000) of which there's a different demographic of people, since Casper scoring is percentile based.

Exactly. 

I've noted it before, but school to school CASPer comparisons (which I'm guilty of personally) are relying on the flawed assumption that the pools are similar. 

Scenario one (Manitoba): 877 applicants (399 OOP). CASPer worth 30%

Scenario two (McMaster): ~5,000 applicants (who knows how many OOP). CASPer worth 33%

Both schools use Z=scores. It's not hard to imagine that the McMaster CASPer school pool ( which is almost 6 times as large!) is more competitive. 

Really, all the data shows is that higher scores (self-reported I would add) are over represented here. To me, this is part sampling/reporting bias, part lying/exaggeration. 

 

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2 minutes ago, MedicineLCS said:

Exactly. 

I've noted it before, but school to school CASPer comparisons (which I'm guilty of personally) are relying on the flawed assumption that the pools are similar. 

Scenario one (Manitoba): 877 applicants (399 OOP). CASPer worth 30%

Scenario two (McMaster): ~5,000 applicants (who knows how many OOP). CASPer worth 33%

Both schools use Z=scores. It's not hard to imagine that the McMaster CASPer school pool ( which is almost 6 times as large!) is more competitive. 

Really, all the data shows is that higher scores (self-reported I would add) are over represented here. To me, this is part sampling/reporting bias, part lying/exaggeration. 

 

Even more so, I'm pretty sure your score/ranking is compared to only those in your applicant pool, which is 399 people with stats of 3.9+ and MCAT > 515. It's not very representative of McMaster Applicants at all 

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54 minutes ago, wowfactor said:

* UPDATED with Proxy Casper Measure *:)

I divided you guys into 3 groups. 

1. People with Button

GPA 3.58 / 131 - BUTTON 

GPA 3.83 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.92 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.93 /129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.6 / 130 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 125 - BUTTON

GPA 3.79 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.75 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.85 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.91 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.92 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.90 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.91 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.95 / 130 (did not apply to Casper-heavy school) - BUTTON

GPA 3.99 / 129 (did not apply to Casper-heavy school) - BUTTON

GPA 3.85 / 131 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 130 (Rejection from UOttawa) - BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 130 (Rejection from UOttawa) - BUTTON

 

2. People without Button with higher stats (GPA 3.95+ AND/OR CARS 129+)

GPA 3.98 / 132 (Invitation from UOttawa)- NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 131 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 4.0 / 131(Casper ?) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.95+(?) / 131 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 4.0 / 129 (Casper?)- NO BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 3.98 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 132 (Casper?) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.95  / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

 

3. People without Button with similar stats with people with Button

GPA 3.87 / 125 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 128 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.84 / 132 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.89 / 129 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.90 / 129 - NO BUTTON

The button should mean something, and I am really excited to see which one (group 1 or 3 ) will be accepted at Mac with group 2. Every one of us must be curious about it, so let's add button/no button on the acceptance/ rejection thread. 

Great Casper score seems to be required in addition to the high GPA and CARS stats to be in the top 100.

Pretty convinced button = lottery 102 

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11 minutes ago, takasugi said:

Waterloo and St. Catherine's are not that far from Toronto....

Hamilton: 47min

Waterloo: 1h 10min

St. Catherine's: 1h 11min

Maybe it's commentary how far these cities are from toronto in terms of diversity, food diversity, transport, population

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3 minutes ago, William Osler said:

Hamilton: 47min

Waterloo: 1h 10min

St. Catherine's: 1h 11min

Maybe it's commentary how far these cities are from toronto in terms of diversity, food diversity, transport, population

IF they are worried about 47 -1 hour drive, they shouldn't go to medical school. Strong chance that you will have to move for residency, and for some across the country. Something every applicant should be aware of as a realistic possibility.

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