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Just got an offer off the waitlist!!!

Just got an offer off the waitlist!!! My number was 99xx if it helps with the theory

I definitely agree. Looking at past years, more people seem to post their acceptance on the forum so it is strange. For your sake, I hope they’re sending out fewer offers over an expanded period of ti

Just now, SoldSoulToMED said:

IP or OOP? 

 

sorry for the false alarm then. the people I know who just got it were all 98xx

I’m IP. What about those you have heard that have gotten an offer - IP or OOP? How many offers have they sent out from the waitlist so far? 

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3 minutes ago, kaymala said:

I’m IP. What about those you have heard that have gotten an offer - IP or OOP? How many offers have they sent out from the waitlist so far? 

all IP . 

So its seems that the 130 people are 98xx for conditional waitlist offers and 99xx with 131 for just waitlist. based on the ones i know, its looking like the high 98xx got offers. 

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6 minutes ago, SoldSoulToMED said:

all IP . 

So its seems that the 130 people are 98xx for conditional waitlist offers and 99xx with 131 for just waitlist. based on the ones i know, its looking like the high 98xx got offers. 

I don't think the 98/99xx is related to being 130 or 131. I'm 130 and 99xx (IP, no offer yet).

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To echo @SoldSoulToMED, based on our discussion, we have 2 working theories so far. 

1. The waitlist has 100-150 applicants 

The evidence to support this is that all those waitlisted have EVEN numbers ranging from 9800-9898 (50) OR 9900-9998 (50) OR 10000-10098 (50) . So far, we haven't found any waitlister in the 96xx, 97xx. The Waitlist FAQ document is an odd number that is +1 of the Waitlist 4 digit number. So 9898+1 = 9899 is FAQ.pdf 

2. Those with higher numbers, such in the 989x/999x/1009x, are ranked higher on the waitlist 

This is supported by a few members (n=2) with numbers in the high 98xx who have been accepted today.  For example: 9898 rank 1, 9896 rank 2 .... 9998 rank 51, 9996 rank 52 ....10098 rank 101, 10096 rank 102 

Again, these theories are all the products of endless neuroticism, so take them with a grain of salt 

 

 

Edited by acacna
updated theories
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13 minutes ago, SoldSoulToMED said:

not necessarily, the 98xx may not have started from the bottom. and OOP may be mixed in with us but not confirmed . hope for the best y'all , more than 100 IP on the waitlist seems absurd to me :(

given the theories it isnt looking good for me I dont think

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14 minutes ago, leaflet01 said:

given the theories it isnt looking good for me I dont think

Not looking very good for me either. At least it gives a sense of closure. Having some hope is more painful than no hope at all :/ 

If those that are accepted could kindly share their 4 digit # or an estimate of it, it would greatly help us confirm this theory. 

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15 hours ago, albertaapplicant1 said:

Do we have any guesses as to how far down the waitlist will go/ how deep in to which group they will send offers based on the last few years numbers?

no idea, we still need to see the numbers of some more people accepted from the waitlist to truly have an idea if the theory is strictly followed. There may be exceptions. Im hoping some people get accepted today but i wouldn't put my money on it. We are probably looking at after Monday and reasonably into June. 

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imo these are drivers waitlist movement:

1- # of people offered at both U of A & U of C. This number probably changes from year to year. I imagine some 50-100 people are offered at both schools. Also, depends on how many of these people end up choosing U of C over U of A.

2- # of people that take their name off waitlist. There's some people that are accepted at U of C or other schools, but they remain waitlisted at U of A. When they remove their name, waitlist moves.

3- depends if U of A over offers like U of C does. I want to think U of A doesnt because they've already sent additional offers last week.

4- # of unfilled OOP seats. This is determined by the nature of the OOP applicants i.e how many acceptances they have and how much they prefer U of A over other schools.

According to AFMC data, an average of 55 offer declines at U of A over past 4 years. So I'm sure the top 50 waitlisted will be offered. But depending on the above factors, waitlist probably can go deeper. Sadly, U of A never reveals how deep they go. The only good news is that at U of C last year, they offered people into the 90s from 148 people on waitlist. For their class of 135, 200 initial offers. 60 initial declines. 60 offers to waitlist. 32 declines from waitlist. 30 people removed name from waitlist = waitlist reaches 90. We can only hope the something similar happens this year at U of A...

#endpostmidnightrant

Edited by acacna
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