UOttawa Medical School Accepted/Waitlist 2021

[noku95]

I did not receive an offer today - will update if I hear anything!

[Jades9977]

Also if you are still on the WL spreadsheet but have since received or accepted offers elsewhere - please update everyone <3 

[premed678]

2 hours ago, Happy Man Man said:

I’m wondering if the top 3 people in the english WL were skipped or just didn’t update. 

I was at the top and haven’t heard anything yet! 

[Peace]

I am wondering if we can actually tell our number in the waitlist by looking at the original message in our waitlist email. Like do people have Content-Transfer-Encoding: base# at the bottom of their original email? I am thinking maybe that number corresponds to where we are in the waitlist? My number seems to correspond..... I don't know if thats a coincident tho. 

[letsgetthisbread]

15 minutes ago, Peace said:

I am wondering if we can actually tell our number in the waitlist by looking at the original message in our waitlist email. Like do people have Content-Transfer-Encoding: base# at the bottom of their original email? I am thinking maybe that number corresponds to where we are in the waitlist? My number seems to correspond..... I don't know if thats a coincident tho.

I just checked and I have that too. My number is fairly close to where I am on the spreadsheet. I'm curious to see if it's similar for others. You could definitely be on to something!

[TheAvatar]

31 minutes ago, Peace said:

I am wondering if we can actually tell our number in the waitlist by looking at the original message in our waitlist email. Like do people have Content-Transfer-Encoding: base# at the bottom of their original email? I am thinking maybe that number corresponds to where we are in the waitlist? My number seems to correspond..... I don't know if thats a coincident tho. 

I think mine corresponds as well!

[chocobun]

3 hours ago, here4mydaughter said:

Having been through this Ottawa Waitlist with my daughter in prior years, I can offer some perspective.

It looks like Bin 1 is only two applicants (redblue1234 & blackpanther3).

Bin 2 starts with either hellolettuce118 or no account (it's not clear).

The top 3 were not skipped and are probably next on the list.

There was one person skipped last year but to set everyone's mind at ease, it was because the waitlist position was conditional.  That person had to supply more information to get an offer and did not do so.  We may never know what information wasn't provided that was requested.

My suggestion would be to re-order applicants on the spreadsheet to accurately reflect their position on the spreadsheet for the benefit of everyone waiting and for waitlisters in a future year.

Hope this information helps.

I'm just glad I don't have to go through this stress of wondering whether my daughter will get an offer this year as she got a number of offers. (finally!)

Good luck to all of you in getting an offer!

Mine isnt too accurate according to the spreadsheet, im like around line 46 on the excel but my base number is 64??

[pre-med 12344321]

32 minutes ago, Peace said:

I am wondering if we can actually tell our number in the waitlist by looking at the original message in our waitlist email. Like do people have Content-Transfer-Encoding: base# at the bottom of their original email? I am thinking maybe that number corresponds to where we are in the waitlist? My number seems to correspond..... I don't know if thats a coincident tho. 

mine doesnt align at all, im much higher on our waitlist 

Edit: I have base 64 but I'm about 15 on the waitlist

[Peace]

LOOL this theory has failed nvm! 

 

 

[carrots]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base64

Base64 is an encoding scheme

[KingCobra99]

I have base 64 too and I am about 25th on the waitlist. 

[letsgetthisbread]

12 minutes ago, Peace said:

LOOL this theory has failed nvm! 

 

 

HAHA it was fun while it lasted

[Premed101--]

Let's test a second hypothesis: In the email, I see something called "X-IncomingHeaderCount", my number is in the 40s. Could this mean anything? We're so desperate, haha.

[Peace]

loool we are desperate....I can't find something called "X-IncomingHeaderCount"

[RebeccaE]

Wait I'm confused now, so bin 1 is only the first two people? Does that mean if we were at the end of the old bin 1- we likely won't get an offer? 

[here4mydaughter]

I was surprised at the amount of personal messages I got with my last post.

So I'm going to tell you what I have come up with.

If you don't want to know, don't look at the rest of this message.

This analysis is all based on assumptions such as - percentage of original offers that will be declined, percentage of students that post their stats,  percentage of waitlist offers that will be declined, whether someone will actually inform the group if they decline their Ottawa waitlist offer etc.

It's impossible to know all this information with exact certainty so this is a very educated guess based on past waitlist history for Ottawa.

The student I land on for a 50% chance of getting an offer is chocobun.

For every spot you are earlier than chocobun's timestamp, add 5%. (ie 55% chance for justabean)

For every spot you are below chocobun's time stamp, subtract 5%.

For everyone with a timestamp of 9:05 or earlier, you are very likely to get an offer.

For everyone with a timestamp of 9:09 and later, sorry to say but it would be a shock if you got an offer.

The cutoff will almost certainly be somewhere in the 7:07's but impossible to say exactly where.

The hardest thing I had to do last year was tell my daughter she was not going to get an offer (and unfortunately she didn't) but at least she knew and could plan for next cycle.

PS - Don't hunt me down and kill me if I am wrong but this is what the numbers say.

[RebeccaE]

8 minutes ago, here4mydaughter said:

I was surprised at the amount of personal messages I got with my last post.

So I'm going to tell you what I have come up with.

If you don't want to know, don't look at the rest of this message.

This analysis is all based on assumptions such as - percentage of original offers that will be declined, percentage of students that post their stats,  percentage of waitlist offers that will be declined, whether someone will actually inform the group if they decline their Ottawa waitlist offer etc.

It's impossible to know all this information with exact certainty so this is a very educated guess based on past waitlist history for Ottawa.

The student I land on for a 50% chance of getting an offer is chocobun.

For every spot you are earlier than chocobun's timestamp, add 5%. (ie 55% chance for justabean)

For every spot you are below chocobun's time stamp, subtract 5%.

For everyone with a timestamp of 9:05 or earlier, you are very likely to get an offer.

For everyone with a timestamp of 9:09 and later, sorry to say but it would be a shock if you got an offer.

The cutoff will almost certainly be somewhere in the 7:07's but impossible to say exactly where.

The hardest thing I had to do last year was tell my daughter she was not going to get an offer (and unfortunately she didn't) but at least she knew and could plan for next cycle.

PS - Don't hunt me down and kill me if I am wrong but this is what the numbers say.

I saw somewhere on this forum someone said the minute is more accurate in terms of ranking rather than the exact second. Does that mean if we also got our email at 9:07, we have around 50% likelihood? Or do you believe the exact second puts you at a 5% drop below chocobun?

[here4mydaughter]

9 minutes ago, RebeccaE said:

I saw somewhere on this forum someone said the minute is more accurate in terms of ranking rather than the exact second. Does that mean if we also got our email at 9:07, we have around 50% likelihood? Or do you believe the exact second puts you at a 5% drop below chocobun?

The order is determined by the exact minute and second of the creation time.  Some students may post their creation time while some others may post their receive time because they can't find or don't know how to find the creation time.  That is why you may see some with a later time receive an offer before an earlier time.  They have posted the wrong time.  The order of offers on the spreadsheet is only as accurate as the time provided which may be incorrect. 

[Pakoon]

1 hour ago, here4mydaughter said:

I was surprised at the amount of personal messages I got with my last post.

So I'm going to tell you what I have come up with.

If you don't want to know, don't look at the rest of this message.

This analysis is all based on assumptions such as - percentage of original offers that will be declined, percentage of students that post their stats,  percentage of waitlist offers that will be declined, whether someone will actually inform the group if they decline their Ottawa waitlist offer etc.

It's impossible to know all this information with exact certainty so this is a very educated guess based on past waitlist history for Ottawa.

The student I land on for a 50% chance of getting an offer is chocobun.

For every spot you are earlier than chocobun's timestamp, add 5%. (ie 55% chance for justabean)

For every spot you are below chocobun's time stamp, subtract 5%.

For everyone with a timestamp of 9:05 or earlier, you are very likely to get an offer.

For everyone with a timestamp of 9:09 and later, sorry to say but it would be a shock if you got an offer.

The cutoff will almost certainly be somewhere in the 7:07's but impossible to say exactly where.

The hardest thing I had to do last year was tell my daughter she was not going to get an offer (and unfortunately she didn't) but at least she knew and could plan for next cycle.

PS - Don't hunt me down and kill me if I am wrong but this is what the numbers say.

While this is well thought out, but its important to remember that the 2020 cycle was a mess and had the lowest waitlist movements we have seen yet. Whether this year will have similar movement is tough to say. But with past numbers as high as 90 people declining offers to ottawa, i 'd find it hard to believe the waitlist would only move to around the 60th spot or so. I admire the theory, but with the uncertainty of previous years its anyone's guess how far it will go.

[here4mydaughter]

19 minutes ago, Pakoon said:

While this is well thought out, but its important to remember that the 2020 cycle was a mess and had the lowest waitlist movements we have seen yet. Whether this year will have similar movement is tough to say. But with past numbers as high as 90 people declining offers to ottawa, i 'd find it hard to believe the waitlist would only move to around the 60th spot or so. I admire the theory, but with the uncertainty of previous years its anyone's guess how far it will go.

You have to keep in mind two things.

The statistics you provide are for both the french and english stream and the spreadsheet is only for the english stream.

Secondly, the spreadsheet does not reflect all the english waitlisted applicants.  There are many that will not post their stats.  Either they don't have an id or do not want to share their information.  I do not know that percentage but I built an estimation into my calculation.

[Pakoon]

10 minutes ago, here4mydaughter said:

You have to keep in mind two things.

The statistics you provide are for both the french and english stream and the spreadsheet is only for the english stream.

Secondly, the spreadsheet does not reflect all the english waitlisted applicants.  There are many that will not post their stats.  Either they don't have an id or do not want to share their information.  I do not know that percentage but I built an estimation into my calculation.

Exactly my point! No one knows how many people did not post their stats, it could be 100 or it could be comprehensive, we know the cap is around ~450 people, if we add both the lists we have (English and French) as well as the total offers they initially send (~160) and straight up rejections, we can assume it doesn't leave much room for many non reported spots. While an estimation is great, It's best to see how this plays out and that last year's cycle may not be representative of this one at all.

[carrots]

@here4mydaughter if you don’t mind, can I ask how you did that calculation? What numbers/percentages did you use?

[Happy Man Man]

Just want to highlight the strong collaboration, communication and problem-solving skills of our cohesive group to solve this  Thinking about those essays though... 

[Orange1234]

5 hours ago, Pakoon said:

Exactly my point! No one knows how many people did not post their stats, it could be 100 or it could be comprehensive, we know the cap is around ~450 people, if we add both the lists we have (English and French) as well as the total offers they initially send (~160) and straight up rejections, we can assume it doesn't leave much room for many non reported spots. While an estimation is great, It's best to see how this plays out and that last year's cycle may not be representative of this one at all.

I also agree! I think its also important to look at the stats from the past 5 years and it seems like it always went through at least one cycle of 4.0- low 3.9s. I think there is more reporting this year as the time stamp theory was seen to pretty much work last year and people are more inclined to post. I am not sure where @here4mydaughtergot the percentages but in my opinion taking into consideration the data from the previous years and even last year (where there was supposedly less movement), we should probably get through everyone in "Bin 1." I could be wrong, but this is my speculation based on previous years. 

[KingCobra99]

Just to add my two cents. The analysis @here4mydaughtermakes is logical and could very likely be true. However, there are some reasons for more optimism. Because the sample size between last year and this year is disparate, I have been comparing by "blocks". Last year, block 1 likely got their acceptances on May 19. Only two people reported it last year however, while 5 reported it this year (also on May 19). Block 2 last year got their offers on May 21. Only three people reported it last year, but based on what i saw from Block 1 this year, I expect at least 6 more people to get in (hopefully tomorrow?). This would clear out most of the 3.99s this year. 

Then last year, may 26 was the day of the deadline and we saw Big Wave 1 where 4 people got in off the spreadsheet. This year I expect 7-10 to get off our spreadsheet on deadline day. This would in my prediction clear out most of the 3.97s. Then back to last year, May 28 was the peak in terms of waves where 8 people got off the spreadsheet. i think we will see a similar number this time around, so that would take us to Ethicsforbreakfast (which is where @here4mydaughterdesignated as the 100% chance cutoff). 

However, we still have a couple of June waves to go through, although these will be much more unpredictable and smaller. This is where I think your chances won't necessarily be 100% but could still be high. Four people got in June 2 last year, and I predict about 5-6 this year. At this point, we would be somewhere in the 43-45 section of the spreadsheet.

Now after this point is where I think movement will heavily depend on factors like how big the waitlist movement is in relation to last year. If the predictions are true and the waitlist will be 10+ people more this year, I could very well see most if not all of Bin 1 clearing. If it is similar to last year, i would likely see it cutoff in the 9:07s as @here4mydaughtersays. 

I honestly think people 3.98+ have been reporting their data much more extensively than last year. Whereas from the middle onwards, the proportions in each GPA are similar to last year. The fact that the waitlist moved 5 people off the spreadsheet a week before the deadline is a reason to be optimistic that the waitlist will move greatly this year. 

So I would remain hopeful even if you are in the 9;07s. A much clearer picture should emerge in the days after. 

 

EDIT: To clarify, the 100% chances I mention are just theoretical based on the time stamp theory. This doesn't account for if the theory will deviate at some points, or if people will get skipped. I assure you even though I am "safe" as per @here4mydaughter, I still feel very uncertain.