Poll on accepted and waitlists an withdrawing

[anj88]

do those numbers not mean that there was 181 offered and who said yes, 3 who deferred and then 79 who were offered and said no- so a total of 263 were given offers for the class of 204 spots?

 

that's a lot of over-acceptance

[margiethemoo]

do those numbers not mean that there was 181 offered and who said yes, 3 who deferred and then 79 who were offered and said no- so a total of 263 were given offers for the class of 204 spots?

 

that's a lot of over-acceptance

 

wow..... that is a lot.

 

pretty disheartening but understandable since Mac had to exhaust their waitlist twice in the past ten years..

 

sigh.

[Leon]

I hope we're reading that wrong because an overacceptance by 56 seats seems a very dangerous move to me.

 

Edit: the overacceptance would have to be even greater than 56 because the class size was smaller in 2008

[andy]

Perhaps the offer declined includes people who were offered a spot off the waitlist and subsequently declined? I can't imagine that it would decrease by a huge number, but maybe? (grasping for straws).

 

Again though, we don't know the numbers from last year's cycle which was the first with Casper, so perhaps it is now different? We have been worried about the interview/accepted applicant pools between Mac and other schools diverging and perhaps they will be too (and so overaccept less)?

[Leon]

Perhaps the offer declined includes people who were offered a spot off the waitlist and subsequently declined? I can't imagine that it would decrease by a huge number, but maybe? (grasping for straws).

 

I don't think so. If the "offers declined" includes waitlist offers that were declined then it makes sense to include waitlist offers that were accepted in the "offered and registered." But that's clearly not the case because if it were, then that row should read 204, lol.

 

gg

[andy]

Maybe I'm super confused/looking at the wrong numbers, but aren't they for the class the began in 2008/who graduated in 2011, so there were fewer spots available in the program?

[Leon]

Ok, the number of spots in 2008 was 176 according to this.

 

The number of offered and registered for the class of 2008 is 181 according to this.

 

These two "official" sources contradict each other so, screw this lol

[Leon]

Maybe I'm super confused/looking at the wrong numbers, but aren't they for the class the began in 2008/who graduated in 2011, so there were fewer spots available in the program?

 

Yea, my bad. It's less than 204 but I can't seem to find an official consistent number.

[dreamsneverdie]

do those numbers not mean that there was 181 offered and who said yes, 3 who deferred and then 79 who were offered and said no- so a total of 263 were given offers for the class of 204 spots?

 

that's a lot of over-acceptance

 

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! Please read below

 

Maybe I'm super confused/looking at the wrong numbers, but aren't they for the class the began in 2008/who graduated in 2011, so there were fewer spots available in the program?

 

You are correct, there were fewer spots in the program back then. The 181 refers to how many spots there were in the class in total. 3 people deferred their offers and therefore 3 others took their place in the 181 seats. 79 people in total declined their offers (including those who declined after were given offers initially + those who declined after waitlist offers).

 

This does NOT mean that a total of 263 offers were given! Because 1) There were not 204 seats back then and 2) If you calculate this way you have over-simplified a calculation which is actually a lot more complicated.

 

This is how you have to think about it - there were 181 (or whatever many) seats in the class, so we know at least 181 offers were sent, and we know that they likely over-accepted, by how much we do not know. It has been speculated that this could be by 10-20%. Lets assume they over-accepted and sent 208 offers (that's if they over accepted by ~15% - just throwing up a number that's reasonable because Wendy has said that they "moderately" overaccept, and an over-acceptance of 27 is likely).

 

Now of these 208 people, lets say 68 people declined their offers to go to other schools. So there were now 208-68=140 seats filled of the 181 available seats.

 

Now they started sending waitlist offers. Of the offers they sent, lets say 11 declined their offers also, bringing the total number of declined offers to 79 (this is what that number means!). And by offering off the waitlist they filled the empty seats, bringing the total to 181.

 

Of these 181, 3 people deferred, and 3 others were offered spots in their place so that 3 seats in the class were not left empty for a whole year.

 

I hope it's clear from this explanation that we don't know just from looking at the number of declined offers, how many were over-accepted or how many were on the waitlist. There is NO WAY from the data we have, to know those numbers, and we can only guess, much like how I have done above.

 

The bright side is that a lot of people end up declining their offers overall. The bad news is that the waitlist is probably so long that not all people get in who are on it. That being said, lets be hopeful, and not be scared that they over-accept by THAT much, because if that was the case, they would just eliminate the waitlist completely, or only have 10-15 people on the waitlist because they knew they had over-accepted like crazy, which is not the case.

 

Hope that helps!

[anj88]

Ooooooh. ok. yes that is very helpful.

i mostly just wanted to make sure that my less-rosy interpretation was wrong.

 

you are right though- even if we had the numbers and we could say, 'ok on average 50 people get in off the wait list' (which we don't, and we can't) we still don't even know our place on the list. Alas, stats will not help us predict the future.

 

I guess there's a little beauty/hope in not knowing though as well? Say you knew you were number 55 and they usually accept 50- that would not be fun.

[margiethemoo]

I'm sort of really dreading the week to come because at least right now we can live in blissful ignorance that maybe JUST MAYBE we're at the top of the line on the waiting list, but when those posts start to come about who's gotten in off the waiting list (i really hope we all do make it!!) but my inbox remains empty... sigh.

 

i remember on may 15th when i started seeing ppl post their acceptances at 8:30 and i kept hitting refresh.. refresh... refresh... and my heart sinking lower and lower and lower until 8:35 i got that e-mail about the waitlist.. longest five minutes of my life..

 

imagine how much worse it'll be in the weeks to come.. sigh.

 

but! you are all right in that we made it this far and we should consider it an honour and an accomplishment! in ten years we'll all look back at this moment in our lives and laugh!

[Tee88]

for the record, dreamsneverdie, that was an awesome analysis. I just got off work and didn't have time to explain it earlier when I posted but that's the way I interpreted it from Lupe's posts from last year but I'm hoping that's the way it's supposed to be interpreted! Potentially 40+ spots with our names on it (I'm erring on the side of optimism ) Assuming the numbers are still about the same

[Rext]

Reading through this thread made me nervous/excited/nauseated all over again >.<

I'm cheering for all of you! I really do hope you all get a nice call/email from Wendy in a weeks time - I would really like to have you awesome people in the 2015 class to b!#@# about PBL with together

[dreamsneverdie]

Glad that helped guys!! I highly recommend reading last years wait list thread in detail if you want to worry over this a bit more because last year the waitlistees were totally awesome and did a lot of research about this stuff.

 

So nice to see those who got in showing their support, thank you! Really hoping this works out!!

[andy]

I guess there's a little beauty/hope in not knowing though as well? Say you knew you were number 55 and they usually accept 50- that would not be fun.

 

I'm never too sure whether I want to know where I am on the list or not. Sometimes I think it would be better to know that I was spot 100 and very unlikely to get in = move on with my life. As it stands I can keep dreaming that I'm somewhere close enough to the top. Perhaps a good/regular/bad waitlist like Western would be a better compromise.

[dreamsneverdie]

Some interesting numbers to ponder:

 

Mac has 203 spots - 92 Facebook members in the group for this year

 

Corresponding numbers for other Ontario schools (yes I stalked the various groups, don't judge)

 

UT 259 spots and 201 fb members

Queens 100 spots and 162 fb members

Western 171 spots and 92 fb members

Ottawa 164 spots and 63 fb members

 

So assuming that the upper years are pretty much a similar proportion of the fb groups at each school, it seems that queens and UT seem to be top choices, and that considering Mac has the 2nd highest number of spots in the province, relatively few students have made it official so far (especially compared to UT!). I might stalk OOP schools later because my life is that sad.

[Leon]

... I might stalk OOP schools later because my life is that sad.

 

hahaha! I've decided to stop analyzing everything to preserve my sanity. What's meant to be is meant to be!

 

Best of luck to everyone. I really hope to meet some of your guys soon. I've got a feeling offers will start releasing Monday.

[Tee88]

Some interesting numbers to ponder:

 

Mac has 203 spots - 92 Facebook members in the group for this year

 

Corresponding numbers for other Ontario schools (yes I stalked the various groups, don't judge)

 

UT 259 spots and 201 fb members

Queens 100 spots and 162 fb members

Western 171 spots and 92 fb members

Ottawa 164 spots and 63 fb members

 

So assuming that the upper years are pretty much a similar proportion of the fb groups at each school, it seems that queens and UT seem to be top choices, and that considering Mac has the 2nd highest number of spots in the province, relatively few students have made it official so far (especially compared to UT!). I might stalk OOP schools later because my life is that sad.

 

Gah I think someone earlier said about 30 people are mods or from upper years trying to help out on the fb group, hopefully we have more poll movement once people actually start making decisions!

[andy]

By my count, at least two people have decided to decline their offers (thank you!) since yesterday afternoon. If we continue at that rate until the deadline we'll match number of acceptances with declines - that would be pretty cool!!

 

 

Based on what I read about the other Facebook groups it has been posted that Western has 19 upper years, majority of the group is upper years at Queens, so I suppose you could subtract those (majority ~60%?) from actually number of members. It's fairly positive when compared to the percent of possible acceptances at Mac!

 

 

So assuming that the upper years are pretty much a similar proportion of the fb groups at each school, it seems that queens and UT seem to be top choices, and that considering Mac has the 2nd highest number of spots in the province, relatively few students have made it official so far (especially compared to UT!). I might stalk OOP schools later because my life is that sad.

 

For OOP schools, Calgary was kind enough to post on their admissions blog that 135/170 seats have been accepted...so no facebook stalking needed lol.

 

Edit: read through Calgary's admissions blog and it was mentioned that they sent less than 200 acceptances for 170 seats. So, assuming Mac would do something similar, I suppose we can expect Mac to have overaccepted by 30(ish) spots.

[Canuckstang]

I originally answered the poll as "accepted and attending" but I've decided to "withdraw" and stay closer to home instead. I don't know how to change my answer to the poll (please let me know if you do) but that's one more spot open for the waitlist I guess. Best of luck guys!

[polka]

I originally answered the poll as "accepted and attending" but I've decided to "withdraw" and stay closer to home instead. I don't know how to change my answer to the poll (please let me know if you do) but that's one more spot open for the waitlist I guess. Best of luck guys!

 

Thanks for letting us know Canuckstang and best of luck in your future med career!

[dreamsneverdie]

hahaha! I've decided to stop analyzing everything to preserve my sanity. What's meant to be is meant to be!

 

Best of luck to everyone. I really hope to meet some of your guys soon. I've got a feeling offers will start releasing Monday.

 

I was also speculating when offers might start coming out. It seems that in past years offers off the waitlist started to be sent a few days before the deadline, so I think definitely Monday, and maybeeeee even Friday this week? But I think it's more likely they'd leave it for Monday!

 

Gah I think someone earlier said about 30 people are mods or from upper years trying to help out on the fb group, hopefully we have more poll movement once people actually start making decisions!

 

Yup, but I wonder how many people are still waiting to decide? Do you guys know people who are still waiting? I don't know anyone else who applied this cycle so I have no idea how many people might be holding off on their decision. I would imagine not too many people would do that?

 

By my count, at least two people have decided to decline their offers (thank you!) since yesterday afternoon. If we continue at that rate until the deadline we'll match number of acceptances with declines - that would be pretty cool!!

 

 

Based on what I read about the other Facebook groups it has been posted that Western has 19 upper years, majority of the group is upper years at Queens, so I suppose you could subtract those (majority ~60%?) from actually number of members. It's fairly positive when compared to the percent of possible acceptances at Mac!

 

 

 

For OOP schools, Calgary was kind enough to post on their admissions blog that 135/170 seats have been accepted...so no facebook stalking needed lol.

 

Edit: read through Calgary's admissions blog and it was mentioned that they sent less than 200 acceptances for 170 seats. So, assuming Mac would do something similar, I suppose we can expect Mac to have overaccepted by 30(ish) spots.

 

I love the info on how many upper years there are in various groups! i agree, it seems like we have hope, but things can change drastically over this next week depending on what happens, and we have to see things unfold to really know! Plus we're only capturing some people from this poll and fb groups etc so i think we have to always keep that in mind...... I am really praying and hoping though! And that info from UCal is very interesting actually. I also think they over accept by about that much, anything more than that just seems unreasonable.

[Tee88]

 

 

Yup, but I wonder how many people are still waiting to decide? Do you guys know people who are still waiting? I don't know anyone else who applied this cycle so I have no idea how many people might be holding off on their decision. I would imagine not too many people would do that?

 

Thanks for all the info coming out folks, this sparks some more hope in my life annnd I actually have quite a few friends who have multiple acceptances who are undecided, or at least have decided for the most part but haven't successfully hit the OMSAS reply yet. For them it seems to be an issue of "should I stay close to home, where I already have family/friends and support, or should I go away and start fresh". I guess it's harder for us to understand because we don't have the multi-school option or at least our heart's are set already, so I think starting Monday a lot more individuals will have their minds made up!!

 

ANNNNNNNNNND if they happen to be lurking the excitement on this page, I encourage them to vote!!!

[dreamsneverdie]

 

ANNNNNNNNNND if they happen to be lurking the excitement on this page, I encourage them to vote!!!

 

[Birdy]

 

Because I didn't apply, but I am excited to see which of you eventually get in. I'll be applying to McMaster in a few years, so getting a feel for how everything goes is important.