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Official "What are my chances for McMaster" Thread

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You're in a great spot. You need to be in about the top 2/3rds, so don't blow off CASPer entirely, but don't stress yourself out too much either. You're right around the interview average (which means

Honestly people...... Look, I don't mean to be rude but look up the admission stats. Your GPA is spot on average. Your CARS is literally the highest it can be almost. I don't know what you're asking

The stats for our class are up if you were wondering:   http://www.fhs.mcmaster.ca/mdprog/documents/Classof2018.pdf

Theoretically the only way to validate it is to look for low stat invites (CARS AND GPA) and assume they aced CASPer. Any other way (e.g. 132/4.0 rejected) has the flaw that someone could have red flagged CASPer and been eliminated that way. There's also going to be some availability bias in that seeing someone with high stats rejected is more of a shock. 

I just skimmed invite stats quickly but seeing someone with near perfect stats and a bottom 20% at Manitoba CASPer (different pools admittedly) get invited would seem to validate the floor of the model. But who knows, COVID could well push the floor up (and minimum % needed) over the next years since the data used was from the last couple of years before this one. 

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On 9/19/2020 at 5:39 PM, MedicineLCS said:

You're in a great spot. You need to be in about the top 2/3rds, so don't blow off CASPer entirely, but don't stress yourself out too much either. You're right around the interview average (which means about half below, about half above, although there is skew) so don't expect anything, but don't be surprised if you get a nice email in January/February. 

Also, since we have the study data now, I thought I'd share the charts I made for a friend a few months ago to figure out the minimum CASPer percentile needed for a given MCAT/GPA (they were wondering about the merits of rewriting/additional undergrad years and I was curious).

A quick word on methodology is that I used the study data means and SDs to assume a normal distribution of GPA/CARS/CASPer (which is not a fair assumption for GPA/CARS, but hey, it's the best we have) and then found the lowest aggregate "score" (defined as points out of 96 (32 CARS, 32 CASPer, 32 GPA) someone who got an interview had (who wasn't in a special stream) in the last couple of years, based on their relation to the pre-interview pool in the study. This turns out to be about a 64 (there are a bunch in the mid-high 60s, even if most of the interview pool are in the 70s+). Since people don't know their CASPer result I assumed the low stat interview invites maxed out CASPer (32/32), which is unlikely, so the actual cutoff is probably a bit lower than the 64. Note that the data will be less accurate at extremes (high/low CARS/GPA). 

As a final word of warning, the numbers on here seem very deterministic, but because I had to make a number of assumptions, they're really not that definitive. Add maybe 5-10% to the percentiles shown and you get a more realistic range of the minimum CASPer performance you should be aiming for. The data may also seem optomistic since it's talking about the lowest score ever seen in multiple cycles, most people interviewing are well into the green zone as a result. Don't underestimate CASPer based off this chart or ask why you didn't interview when you needed a 12th percentile result or something (answer, you scored below that range or red flagged it). 

Hopefully posting this allows everyone to figure out their own chances based off the. Percentiles above 100 are mathematically impossible, so if you add some flex room, anything above a 110-115 isn't going to be happening. And again, these should not be treated as definitive, down to the last digit, estimates, but as ball-park guesstimates based off 30 minutes of Excel work for a friend. The math used to this is inherent error prone in changing multiple percentile scores into straight scores and back to percentiles, but it's better than nothing. 



I can anecdotaly back this up. I had a 130 CARS and 3.99 gpa and a 21-40 percentile casper at Manitoba. 

I got interview waitlisted at Mac and eventually got off the waitlist this year. 

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