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Fellow OoP waitlisters,

 

If you're anything like me you were probably somewhere between hopeful <->bummed<->crushed when you didn't get that dreamed of acceptance on decision day, depending on your ranking of course.

 

After a few days of feeling discouraged I tried to do a little research to see what kind of chances there are. Obviously these numbers will vary from year to year but based on the last few years trends I tried to do a little bit of analysis to calculate the total number of offers to Canadian students there actually are. Note: all my numbers came from "Admission Requirements of Canadian Faculties of Medicine" (https://www.afmc.ca/sites/default/files/documents/en/Publications/AdmissionsBook2016-Final-EN.pdf)

 

So the raw results that are presented here are the total number of offers made to OoP students. They define this as all offers either accepted, declined, or deferred. Looking into the numbers we see that there has been an upward trend of offers from 2011 - 2015 (last data available) from 2% -> 3.5%. Note that these numbers are based on TOTAL applicants. From the available application data, the number of OoP applicants fluctuates between 800-1000 for most years, with this year being a tad low at 715.

 

DISCLAIMER: There are some theory violating assumptions to these calculations but I did them for my own peace of mind and thought I would share them and they are not meant to give you an exact idea of how good your chance to get in is more to give some mild insight to the trend of OoP waitlist movement over the last four years.

 

What can we take from this? Using a little bit of statistics, despite a crappy sample size, we can make an approximation to the amount of offers that usually get made from year to year with a pretty broad confidence interval based on the total numbers each year based on the mean and standard deviation of these last four years. An example calculation follows #OoP-applicants * %applicants admitted = number offers, we can then average these numbers over the last four years and find a weak standard deviation and based on the zscore can define a confidence interval. (you can read more about confidence intervals here if you're interested https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_interval)

 

SO - to get to what you've been waiting for, the 95% confidence interval is [13.7,23.5] or in offer terms, 14-23 offers. That's a lot of offers! There is no guarantee to get there but if you're on the waitlist keep your chin up and hopefully we get one of those offers soon.

 

Finally, after looking at the waitlist page and seeing that they have already moved to position #3 well before Ontario school offers come out there is plenty of hope to be had.

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hey!

 

does anyone know how much the OOP waitlist ended up moving last year?

 

thanks!

It ended up moving to position #13 (total of 23 offers made to OOP students) right at the edge of the confidence interval I had calculated! If there are other OOP students on the waitlist interested I can definitely "crunch" the numbers again for this year's waitlist. Probably have that excel document on my computer somewhere...

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It ended up moving to position #13 (total of 23 offers made to OOP students) right at the edge of the confidence interval I had calculated! If there are other OOP students on the waitlist interested I can definitely "crunch" the numbers again for this year's waitlist. Probably have that excel document on my computer somewhere...

 

Thanks for the calculations bigshoes89, really a breath of fresh air :).

 

Just wondering how it moved to #13 though, based off the Afmc stats. If the success rate for OOP was 1.8% for 715 applicants, that would come out to 13 offers. Wouldn't that mean that the waitlist moved to position #3 after the initial 10 offers? Please prove me wrong ;).

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Thanks for the calculations bigshoes89, really a breath of fresh air :).

 

Just wondering how it moved to #13 though, based off the Afmc stats. If the success rate for OOP was 1.8% for 715 applicants, that would come out to 13 offers. Wouldn't that mean that the waitlist moved to position #3 after the initial 10 offers? Please prove me wrong ;).

My proof is that I was rank #13 and I was admitted. Unless the AFMC has changed their definition of what a successful applicant was (used to be any offer whether accepted, deferred, or declined) then their calculation yields a different success% than mine.

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My proof is that I was rank #13 and I was admitted. Unless the AFMC has changed their definition of what a successful applicant was (used to be any offer whether accepted, deferred, or declined) then their calculation yields a different success% than mine.

 

Congratulations, and hope you're enjoying your year! May I ask how long the wait was for you?

 

Thanks x

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On 4/14/2017 at 7:25 PM, bigshoes89 said:

My proof is that I was rank #13 and I was admitted. Unless the AFMC has changed their definition of what a successful applicant was (used to be any offer whether accepted, deferred, or declined) then their calculation yields a different success% than mine.

I don't think they take into consideration people who took themselves off the waitlist to accept another school. For those people, no offer was formally made, so AFMC wouldn't count them as a successful applicant, but that action still results in waitlist movement, hence actual people getting offers would be further down the waitlist than predicted by the AFMC percentages.

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