The Number Of Unmatched Students Doubled In Carms 2017

[doc_doc_doc]

This is buried in another thread but I think it needs to be much more visible:

 

166 unmatched CMGs after first round --> 68 unmatched after second round in 2017

 

vs.

 

77 unmatched CMGs after first round --> 8 unmatched after second round in 2016

 

Source:

http://www.carms.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-CaRMS-Forum-web-deck-EN.pdf

[JohnGrisham]

Surprisingly see more than one math mistake on the PDF. Must've been copy paste error.

[rmorelan]

Surprisingly see more than one math mistake on the PDF. Must've been copy paste error.

 

yeah....it feels unpolished for sure. Confusing labelling in a few places as well. 

 

other scary stats if the math is right - roughly only 65% of the people that go unmatched completely in a year who applied again during the 2016/2017 cycle matched on that attempt after going through both 1st and 2nd iterations. 

[doc_doc_doc]

yeah....it feels unpolished for sure. Confusing labelling in a few places as well. 

 

other scary stats if the math is right - roughly only 65% of the people that go unmatched completely in a year who applied again during the 2016/2017 cycle matched on that attempt after going through both 1st and 2nd iterations. 

 

It gets scarier: how will they fare in a year where there's 68 unmatched likely coming in? If its in the 60% zone after 8 were added from the 2016 class, you can bet it's going to only get worst once we had nearly 10 times more unmatched applicants.

[thestar10]

Your numbers are wrong. Last year had 151 unmatched current year after the first iteration and 48 after 2nd iteration. Those numbers relate to 206 grads participating in the 2017 match.

[doc_doc_doc]

Your numbers are wrong. Last year had 151 unmatched current year after the first iteration and 48 after 2nd iteration. Those numbers relate to 206 grads participating in the 2017 match.

 

I was going off what's on slide 47

[thestar10]

I was going off what's on slide 47

Slide 47 is previous year grads that were unmatched and went through the 2017 match, not previous year match results.

[plane]

For the sake of argument, if we exclude Francophone med schools and students from the stats (because of the potential language barrier):

 

After the 2nd iteration, there are only 7 anglophone residency spots available for the 99 non-Quebec unmatched CMGs (both current [60] and prior years [39]).

 

 

[rmorelan]

For the sake of argument, if we exclude Quebec med schools and med students from the stats (because of the potential language barrier):

 

After the 2nd iteration, there are only 7 anglophone residency spots available for the 99 non-Quebec unmatched CMGs (both current [60] and prior years [39]).

 

 

someone once told me that the first round is about matching medical students. The second round is about filling residency spots. Not quite correct but it makes the point again about the dangers of not matching in the first round. 

[JohnGrisham]

Time to either learn french or just take the USMLEs so you can head over there for FM or General IM. 

[ralk]

I was going off what's on slide 47

 

Your numbers are right, but you've labelled them wrong.

 

There were 77 total graduating year CMGs unmatched after both rounds last year.

 

This year we don't have the final number, but seeing as there were 166 unmatched from the first round and only 70 matched in the second, that would put the total number of unmatched, graduating CMGs at no less than 96 this year.

 

96 vs 77 is definitely an uptick, and is reflected in CaRMS' reported total unmatched rate (which is at a decade-long high), but it's not quite as severe as your original post makes it out to be.

[doc_doc_doc]

Your numbers are right, but you've labelled them wrong.

 

There were 77 total graduating year CMGs unmatched after both rounds last year.

 

This year we don't have the final number, but seeing as there were 166 unmatched from the first round and only 70 matched in the second, that would put the total number of unmatched, graduating CMGs at no less than 96 this year.

 

96 vs 77 is definitely an uptick, and is reflected in CaRMS' reported total unmatched rate (which is at a decade-long high), but it's not quite as severe as your original post makes it out to be.

 

PHEWF thankfully! I definitely panicked when I saw this. I was reading it on the train, on my phone as well, which I think didn't help with comprehension.

 

Sorry for the panic!

[Borborygmi]

Ugh. What happened to neurology? Starting to rethink my first choice.... sudden surge of 61 1st ranked for 43 spots.

[rmorelan]

Ugh. What happened to neurology? Starting to rethink my first choice.... sudden surge of 61 1st ranked for 43 spots.

 

that is the problem with CARMS. It isn't predictable - and in fact people doing what you suggest is in part what causes swings in what is early or harder. Something looks easier and suddenly more people applying making it hard. If it has a poor match rate one year then people are scared off and it is easier. It would be a lot less stressful if it was consistent.

 

as another example radiology had one of its best and worst match years back to back a few years ago from that with a wild swing in between. Completely unpredictable. 

 

Very painful to do but there is real logic to applying for something that is moderately competitive the year after it had a bad match year due to too many applicants (ha, all other things being equal). If you "rethink your first choice" and others do the same, the people left will have easy pickings. 

[ralk]

Ugh. What happened to neurology? Starting to rethink my first choice.... sudden surge of 61 1st ranked for 43 spots.

 

Randomness is random. For smaller fields, it's hard to predict competitiveness year-to-year. I wouldn't jump ship from Neurology based on these numbers alone. Expect Neuro to be a moderately competitive field, as it is most years.