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2018 Waitlist Discussions


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7 minutes ago, la marzocco said:

IP University: 80

OOP: 10

Med-P (from previous year): 71

NTP (from previous year): 2

INTL: 2

This adds up to 165 spots? I don't think in-province matriculants themselves would necessarily total 165. Not sure how deferrals are accounted for in the statistics that are posted.

i could be mistaken, but i think the 10 from OOP aren't included in the 165. It should be 175 total including them. This is what i read in the afmc 2018 pdf.

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Wow this year's waitlist movement is so weird. IP is reaching record highs while OOP is reaching record lows. Is this just pure chance, or is there something happening here?

Since the deposit deadline is still some time away and I think they're still taking deferral requests, I would say it's reasonable to expect 5-ish more spots on IP.

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2 minutes ago, MedP111 said:

Wow this year's waitlist movement is so weird. IP is reaching record highs while OOP is reaching record lows. Is this just pure chance, or is there something happening here?

Since the deposit deadline is still some time away and I think they're still taking deferral requests, I would say it's reasonable to expect 5-ish more spots on IP.

what's your guess? Do you think number 28 will be called? 

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11 minutes ago, docdurrr said:

Does anybody have those statistics of what position it got to on which dates for previous years? Wondering where it was at on june 1st (and following dates) last year and the year before that

Look earlier in the thread, but from what I remember, it hadn't gotten to 10 at this time last few years. This is really crazy!

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On 3/28/2018 at 3:41 PM, la marzocco said:

I was asked to do some stats for the IP group too, similar to how I did it for the OOP group in another thread. Here it is:

The IP success rate ranges from 7.4% to 12.0%, based on the past 3 years of data. The 3-yr average being 10.1%. Success rate is defined as those received at least one offer of admission whether subsequently registered, declined or deferred. There were 861 IP applicants this year, so one can expect 64-103 total offers being made; average being 87 total offers. Assuming 79 offers have been made, the waitlist should move around 0-24 positions; average being 8.

tl;dr using the past 3 years as a proxy for what will happen this year, the waitlist should move to about spot 8. But please take this with a tremendous amount of salt. Lâche pas la patate! :) 

 

On 3/28/2018 at 4:06 PM, lmck said:

I think with the reduction in # of seats, the turnover will be less, so I think the low end ~10 might actually make sense?

 

On 3/28/2018 at 8:47 PM, kiterunner said:

I highly doubt it will move that much this year. I think what @la marzocco calculated could very well be indicative of this year's waitlist movement. We need to take into account the number of deferrals from prior year as well, alongside the reduction in seats.

Wow were you guys way off ;) lucky for us!

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24 minutes ago, SpeedyPotato said:

Wow were you guys way off ;) lucky for us!

Ha. All this math is so rough, every year is different. #23 on the waitlist already! It’s right up there at the upper end of the range ha congratulations to everyone who got off nonetheless :) 

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24 minutes ago, Vendar said:

Wow the movement has been super blessed this year! Does anyone have an idea why so many people are turning it down? French schools? Or leaving QC?

I could be wrong but I feel like the impact of deferrals is underestimated. McGill's IP applicant pool is comprised of a lot of people who apply during their graduate studies. Therefore, I feel like a lot of them resort to deferring in order to finish what they started. 

Also, who's to say that some of those seats between 14 and 22 weren't empty already? There could have been someone who got accepted elsewhere earlier and left their waitlist position. If that's the case, it could possibly explain the 8 spot jump that happened on Friday.

The possibilities are endless and there's no way of really knowing. I think we just got really lucky this year!

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17 hours ago, docdurrr said:

Does anybody here have any information that could help us anticipate any more waitlist movement? :p 

I don't know anyone who's planning to decline.. That being said, we haven't hit the June 15th deadline for reimbursement of the 500$ deposit, which is usually followed by quite a bit of movement. Hopefully for you guys who are still waiting, people will still have waited last minute to rescind their application! Given the usual trends, I wouldn't be surprised if it hits the low 30s this year, although it's also possible that people just decided earlier this year and that it'll only move 2 or 3 more spot by the start of the semester, really hard to predict! Good luck to all of you though!!

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Typically reasons for WL mvt:
1. People choosing other schools

2. Deferrals 

3. Med-Ps not moving on to Med-1 (not as significant as 1&2)

For deferrals, some people do decide at the very last minute so it's still possible that a few spots will be given by the 15th. After the 15th, it typically does not move or only moves by 1...

 

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