How many remaing in the waiting list

[lazyboy]

Let's do some educated guesses.

 

My take is U of C and U of A reject about half of the interviewees, with U of C takes a bit more since it knows there will be more people that will get off the list, and they would offer more than available on May 13.

 

with 644, we will have 322 people, half of that is 161, which incidentally is the number that is available this year 170 - 10 reserved for people that deferred in the previous year.

 

I think they make around 170 offers knowing that some will decline. so that leaves around 150. Dr. Walker, in the email, think 80 to 90% will eventually get off the waiting list, that is around 120 to 141. Which is the historical number.

 

Due to whatever reasons, may be more OOP people move to ab to claim IP ( it only takes 1 year to become Albertan, which is too easy IMHO and unfair to those that live here for ages, most provinces require 3 years, but that is for another post later). Many people accept the offer, and U of C was only able to offer 30 spots initiallly to those in waiting lists. Now, the Dr. Walker adjust the % to 50 to 60%, which is around 75 to 90. and later, bottom 30% of those get rejected b/c they're too far away, and because, the movement is not as great as anticipated. Therefore, you now have 50 to 63 remaining in the waiting lists. I think we're closer to 50 than 63 b/c. There is because since June 9, there are few movement

 

Taking into account that U of C takes more people into waiting list, and some gets off the waiting list since June 30. 50 is the magic number. Out of that 50, how many will eventually get an offer is anybody guess. My guess is10.

[Erk]

The square root of the starlight that falls on a beach, divided by the number of twinkles in a jellyfish's eye.

 

Admissions isn't going to offer this information, and I think there's really absolutely no way to calculate it. Your estimations are conjecture upon conjecture, and I don't think there's much reality left by the end of it all

[ATturnMD]

I think your guess is a good as anyone else's. You've definitely done more math then I have. Without any thought to calculations I figured that there would only be about 15 people left who hadn't gotten the 'chances are unlikely' email. Thats probably just wishful thinking if you are guessing 50, I am way off.

 

I guess we could try and count ourselves ... how many people are still out there?

 

There's Erk and I so that make 2 so far ...

[Oly]

+1 still on wait list

[lazyboy]

Of course, my guess is as good or as worse as anybody , but it is all statistics and probability. 50 is good number in this stage.

 

Admission won't tell you how many are still in the waiting lists, I'm just trying to get a number that I think is resonable. The fact to the matter is, like any waiting lists, there will be more people not get in than those that will. U of C chance is actually better based on historical mean, 127 or so get off in 2010, historical, it is around 100. That is why you receieve a letter saying 80 to 90% of people gets in.

 

However, this year is so different from last year, and that is why bottom 30% get that "stand down" email, and it was only June 9, less than a month from that all important May 13. They won't do that unless they're sure it is safe to do so. The number remaining has to be big enough to handle worst case scenerio. 15 is too low IMHO, it is late June, there is still a month to go, someone will get off from waiting list in U of A (I assume most of them will come from there), and U of A school start in late August. 50 is about right.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but if you are looking it from the admission point of view, they cannot risk not having enough waitlisters.

 

Next year may be even worse. Mind you, there is some changes in U of C admission process next year, we will find out soon enought in early July. Hopefully, it is something to do with Alberta resident, that a applicant must stay in the province at least 2 years before they're considered IP, similiar to other provinces. If they do it in U of C, it will happen to U of A as well. If that happens, those IP will have a better chance next year.

 

It is all guess game. However, rest assured that those that are put into waiting list accomplish a lot, even if they don't get. You know what you have done to get so close, you just have to try a little bit harder next year.

[Asta]

Of course, my guess is as good or as worse as anybody , but it is all statistics and probability. 50 is good number in this stage.

 

Admission won't tell you how many are still in the waiting lists, I'm just trying to get a number that I think is resonable. The fact to the matter is, like any waiting lists, there will be more people not get in than those that will. U of C chance is actually better based on historical mean, 127 or so get off in 2010, historical, it is around 100. That is why you receieve a letter saying 80 to 90% of people gets in.

 

However, this year is so different from last year, and that is why bottom 30% get that "stand down" email, and it was only June 9, less than a month from that all important May 13. They won't do that unless they're sure it is safe to do so. The number remaining has to be big enough to handle worst case scenerio. 15 is too low IMHO, it is late June, there is still a month to go, someone will get off from waiting list in U of A (I assume most of them will come from there), and U of A school start in late August. 50 is about right.

 

I hope I'm wrong, but if you are looking it from the admission point of view, they cannot risk not having enough waitlisters.

 

Next year may be even worse. Mind you, there is some changes in U of C admission process next year, we will find out soon enought in early July. Hopefully, it is something to do with Alberta resident, that a applicant must stay in the province at least 2 years before they're considered IP, similiar to other provinces. If they do it in U of C, it will happen to U of A as well. If that happens, those IP will have a better chance next year.

 

It is all guess game. However, rest assured that those that are put into waiting list accomplish a lot, even if they don't get. You know what you have done to get so close, you just have to try a little bit harder next year.

 

Is there a reason you think they will change the Alberta residency requirements? As far as I know, IP Alberta still has very good admission averages when compared to most of the country. Not that I would complain if they made it 2 years, I have lived here 9 years.

[plumplum13]

Thanks for your educated guesses -- it was nice reading them. I'm still heartfully waiting...

[epson]

silly silly PM101ers; check the U of C Medicine 2014 Facebook group to see how many offers are up for grabs by looking at the number of members; i'm aware that many of those are from the 2013 class (friends of mine) but nonetheless perhaps you can count and subtract these (seems easier than your formula)

[zxcv]

I think reading a book would be far more useful than wasting your time trying to figure out the numbers. Lets say that there are 15 spots left, and there are 30 people on the list. assume, the person doing the "analysi" is number 30. Won't make a difference. Sure, its tough being waitlisted, but that's life. Have to learn to deal with, and move in...

[Erk]

silly silly PM101ers; check the U of C Medicine 2014 Facebook group to see how many offers are up for grabs by looking at the number of members; i'm aware that many of those are from the 2013 class (friends of mine) but nonetheless perhaps you can count and subtract these (seems easier than your formula)

 

You wouldn't know how many were accepted off the waitlist but turned down the offer because they have been accepted elsewhere. Also, there's no easy way to tell who is an Aye Aye and who is one of us.