More offers sent than spots?

[whatsupdoc?]

At the interview day I asked one of the presenters how many first round offers they send out. Now, I may be incorrect here (I've been wait listed and believe me I hope someone corrects me) but from what she said I gathered that they send out more first round offers than they have spots available.

 

This makes sense to me because if you look at a statistical analysis of past years and said for example you have 225 spots to fill and on average you get 60-100 declined offers, it would be logical to send out 225 + 60 = 285 first round offers in an attempt to get the most qualified people. If this is the case that would leave very little room on the wait list for movement, which would greatly reduce the probability of getting in off the wait list.

 

If anyone has any more information on this I would love to hear it. Knowing that only a very few people get in off the wait list versus the 60-65 # that has been floating around would greatly help me and I think everyone else plan for the upcoming year.

[utwaitlister]

I strongly think the med student has misinformed you.

 

Schools send out acceptances to the exact number of people they have spots for. i.e. for TO, 224 people - # of deferals from last year. Schools, know that people turn down offers and that is why they have the waitlist. They only take a person off the waitlist if a person turns down an offer. This way they ensure that they only offer admission to people to fill the number of spots they have available.

 

Like the schools have said, they have no idea how many people they are going to take from the waitlist from year to year, so sending out more offers than spots could create a situation where they do not have enough spots to accommodate the students that have accepted.

[docapplicant10001]

I strongly think that the original poster has not been misinformed, because I have also heard the same thing. Apparently the same number of people have turned down offers for 50 years, so they are not worried about having more people than spots accepted. I'm not sure why they do this, but I'm sure they have their reasons and Im quite quite quite certain it is true.

[katerade]

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06

54 77 81 62 69

 

Thos were the declined spots the past few years. so not constant at all. i would be shocked if they sent out significantly more spots than were available.

[utwaitlister]

docapplicant1001,

 

I do not agree with your argument that the number of waitlisters each year are the same so they just know. From a document given in the Mac boards, U of T had over the last 5 years 54, 77, 81, 62, and 69 applicants turn down offers. Over that time, the class size has changed from year to year (rough speaking).

 

How can you predict how many students to give an offer to? Is it based on a percentage of the size of the class, the size of the applicant pool, the total number of spots available in the province or in Canada ? There are far too many factors to make any reasonable prediction on the number of offers to make on the first round.

 

Moreover, other schools to not follow this practice (see UWO boards). If U of T did and the others did not, this would give U of T an advantage over the other schools. I do not see Toronto bullying their colleagues.

 

I will agree they could safely say that at least 20 - 30 people will turn down their offer, but this still does not answer why they would send out more offers than spots on the first round.

 

Perhaps I am wrong, but until I get a logical argument as to why they would offer more spots or direct evidence from U of T that they do, I will not be convinced otherwise.

[docapplicant10001]

Hey guys, sorry I should have added more detail, I fired out too quick of a response. I'm glad you brought up the statistics because thats a very valid point, which is why I added 'apparently' in my above statement, but I guess apparently not . They could safely say 50 people will turn it down if you ask me. Anways, I only mentioned this because that was the answer I got when I asked the exact same question about filling too many spots. But you guys are very right that its not logical, not sure if it would be 'bullying', perhaps just a school to school variation. I only strongly believe it because of the reliable person I got it from, but at the end of the day, you are correct that its only hearsay. Just a point from the interview session, leslie taylor said about 300 of us would be given acceptance and so our odds were good. I personally think she would not have said this if it was about 300 of us "eventually" getting in off the waitlist. If there is one thing I've learned from the whole med school process, is that many of the things are not logical, so I stopped always looking for logical arguments .......haha....I'm sure you wold agree on that one

[heathcliff]

I think the 'acceptances' to 300 includes the initial 224 offers, and then a rough estimate of giving out 76 spots to people on the waitlist. There would be no point in having a waitlist if they gave out more offers than spots, unless they, say, gave out 230 offers. I.e. a number only slightly smaller than the amount of seats they have.

[bay]

THEY DO NOT SEND OUT MORE OFFERS THAN THEY HAVE SPOTS. I was part of the admissions during my time at U of T. If someone tells you that they send out more offers than there are spots, they are counting all offers sent out i.e. all initial offers (including those who initially declined) + those sent to waitlisters.

[studentz]

Confirming Bay's response. Think about it, each spot is funded. What would happen if they did send out more offers than spots initially, and then too many people accepted? For each person that declines an offer, an offer is made to someone on the waitlist until the class is full.