Opinions: With the below information, should I/where should I apply?

[thelostgrade12]

Hello all,

I am looking at the quickly-approaching end of my third-year undergrad, and I've been staring at some med school admission stats for a while. With my current stats below, what do you all think my chances are? I know that's impossible to tell exactly, so I'll give this completely subjective scale:

4 - Apply, there's a decent chance of getting in somewhere.
3 - Apply, you'll probably get an interview somewhere at least.
2 - Apply, but don't expect anything to come of it.
1 - Don't bother, there's basically no chance.

OMSAS GPA equivalent = 3.80; U of T wGPA 3.93 or lower (if it's not removed for the next cycle)
IP Status: Quebec, so OOP everywhere
MCAT = 499 (no prep, will do a full prep for another attempt in August, assume 510 final score)
EC = completely medicine-unrelated, but work environment similar; not very diverse, just one thing that takes a lot of time
Research = None so far, but arrangements are in place to do a 6-credit "reading course" over the summer.

I know I am technically above the cutoff for most schools, but fall quite a way short of the 3.98-ish averages of a lot of medical schools. Because I'm effectively OOP everywhere, my only real shots are at Western, Queens, and U of T. But let's face it, Western and Queens are my only realistic options. My EC is unrelated to medicine (it's basically my "backup career"), and it's mediocre compared to what I've read to be considered "average" for admitted students. 

So to all that have applied, gotten in, not gotten in, or never applied, where do I stand on my 4-point scale? Should I have a specific strategy to target a specific set of schools?

I will also apply to some OOP schools such as U of Manitoba, but I highly, highly doubt I will be competitive for the 2 or 3 seats on offer. I cannot apply to any Quebec schools because of the new set of French language requirements. My abilities are already stretched thin to get the above, so there is no way I can get my French up to the required proficiency in 5 months.

Thanks for any inputs!

[GH0ST]

499 to 510 is possible but I won't hold my breath since I don't believe in potential until it happens personally.

With 499 though you have no chance anywhere. Even with a 510 it's an uphill battle if you're lower than 3.9 GPA and average ECs

- G

[Pakoon]

Regardless of scores, the correct answer is apply everywhere. The odds of acceptance after applying is a different story.

[Nik-]

With the current information, I would rank you as a "1" at Ontario schools and UofA. The only way I can imagine this elevating to a 2 or 3 depends on your CARS score: a 131-132 may get you an interview at mac. A 3.8 and 510 doesn't mean much these days unfortunately.

I've applied 5 times over 6 years without an interview invite and objectively better stats