Interview afterthoughts

[minou]

Hi there I can't stop thinking about my u of c interview I was just wondering if anyone out there had some thoughts about my chances (sorry I know its another chances thread). I thought I did pretty good on 7/9 of the question, I thought I did mediocre in one question and I fumbled in my last question. Is it normal to do poorly on one or two questions? I only ask because I know the u of c puts a strong emphasis on the interview. Personally i'd rather they focus on the GPA and MCAT.

If anyone could help me out that would be awesome.

 

Cheers!

minou

[PurpleSkies]

I think that there isn't always a strong correlation between how you think you did in the interview and how you actually scored. Everyone has more clear thoughts of what they should have said after the fact. But you gave 9 independent first impressions, hopefully they reflect who you are as well as can be assessed in such a short period of time. Your chances, like everyone are 155/640 or about 24%, better than winning the lottery

[kylamonkey]

Your chances, like everyone are 155/640 or about 24%, better than winning the lottery

 

Actually, those are just your chances for an offer on May15th. As the offers move down the waitlist, it gets better- I think last year it was more like 40% ultimately received an offer of admission.

[mdgwilliams]

Well...if I recall, I think maybe 5 of my stations went great, the rest a mix between fubar and mediocre. I got in off the wait list, so I wouldn't fret too much.

[Vidhya]

To be even more precise for us obsessive number crunchers the IP and OOP pools have different stats:

 

IP: 132 seats / 518 interviews = 25% chance

OOP: 23 seats / 122 interviews = 19% chance

 

However like you said Kyla the waitlist changes everything and Dr. Walker admitted on the blog that they overinvite in May since they can guesstimate somewhat the number of declines. Sooo.....lets say they overinvite IP's by 15 seats and then the waitlist moves 50 spots (last year they said 74 so being conservative here) maybe 200 people overall at the minimum get invited IP. For OOP, the waitlist moved 42 people last year.

 

 

Here is a conservative calculation for this year that reduces the numbers based on the smaller class size:

IP: 200 offers / 518 Interviews = 39%

OOP: 40 offers / 122 Interviews = 34%

 

On top of that Dr. Walker mentioned last year that the waitlist moved less in 2012 then in previous years. You could start getting close to 45-50% odds in short order.

 

Ahhhh that felt good.

[PurpleSkies]

Whatever makes you feel better

[rosencrantz]

Thanks for crunching those numbers. As Vidhya points out with first the over-invites, and second the waitlist, including those on the waitlist who have accepted elsewhere it could be highly variable. My guess that it is significantly higher than 25% for IP, and it seems reasonable that it could be closer to 40%. None of this actually makes a difference anymore, though. There is nothing we can do at this point...

[polarbear89]

To be even more precise for us obsessive number crunchers the IP and OOP pools have different stats:

 

IP: 132 seats / 518 interviews = 25% chance

OOP: 23 seats / 122 interviews = 19% chance

 

 

However like you said Kyla the waitlist changes everything and Dr. Walker admitted on the blog that they overinvite in May since they can guesstimate somewhat the number of declines. Sooo.....lets say they overinvite IP's by 15 seats and then the waitlist moves 50 spots (last year they said 65 so being conservative here) maybe 200 people overall at the minimum get invited IP.

 

IP: 200 seats / 518 Interviews = 39%

OOP: (unfortunately I don't know the OOP waitlist movement)

 

 

On top of that Dr. Walker mentioned last year that the waitlist moved less in 2012 then in previous years. You could start getting close to 45-50% odds in short order.

 

 

Ahhhh that felt good.

 

Thanks for the numbers!

 

On the wait list movement, I'm guessing that, because of the seat cut, it will be less than in past years but I hope that my guess is off haha.

[ADH]

Considering wait list movements, I believe post-interviewer odds for OOP are even higher than IP.

[AB-MD-App2012]

I doubt this statistics:

IP: 200 seats / 518 Interviews = 39%

?

 

If UC has 135 seats for IP applicants this year, the admission rate may not be so high this year. 135* 1.1 (a factor) /518 = 29%.

 

Hope this number is firm and will only go up and up.

[surferdoc]

Another thing to think about is there are less seats this year so the original number of offers will obviously decrease, leaving less people to potentially decline an offer. Ultimitely decreasing how far the waitlist goes.

 

Though, you could argue the people who usually decline (due to have having multiple offers) are higher on the list and not effected by the change - thus not effecting the number of people who decline a u of c seat.

 

Who knows, I guess we'll know soon enough (well, maybe not soon enough, but soon)

 

sd

[kylamonkey]

I crunched these numbers a few months ago. The number of offers made to AB last year was 218, for 504 interviewees.

 

Check here for the numbers:

http://wcmprod2.ucalgary.ca/mdprogram/files/mdprogram/Reference%20Stats%202012.pdf

 

218/504 is a 43% chance. That's where I got my 40% number from.

 

You can figure it out for OOP applicants too if you like.

 

Of course with the number of seats reduced this year it will change, but 40% is still a pretty decent estimate, based on the most current numbers.

[polarbear89]

I definitely hope the ~40% stat holds for this cycle. It's just getting harder and harder to get into medical school...

[Vidhya]

I updated my original post to include a calculation for OOP because Kyla had found the waitlist movement stats from last year (thanks!)

 

I wouldn't underestimate the movement of the waitlist. Many of these stats are based on what Dr. Walker has posted or stated. In one old post on the blog (3 years ago?) I remember he stated that U of C had one of the best odds across Canada post-interview, with some classes being around the 1:2 admission ratio.

 

While they haven't always posted detailed stats like they did last year, they have also stated that they are able to guesstimate fairly well with all their stats from previous years. In order to overinvite and not make a mistake you have to be confident in your stats. Last year was a low movement year yet they still had plenty of movement after the overinvite.

 

Remember with 1200 or so IP applicants, I think it would be fair to state that there are quite a few stellar people that can get in anywhere, and many others who will receive more then one offer. UofC isn't everyone's first choice and Albertans will go elsewhere if they prefer another program.