Supply of Doctors Jumps: Report [CBC]

[NewfieMike]

http://www.cbc.ca/health/story/2010/12/02/doctor-supply-canada.html

[ihatechem]

= time to cut medical school spots?

[future_doc]

The politicans are capable of anything.

[cheech10]

Many of my colleagues are finding specialist positions tough to come by in Southern Ontario. This is a drastic change from even 2-3 years ago.

[leap87]

Let's not forget that population in Canada is growing too, so there will always be an increased need for doctors. Not to mention the so many that will retire soon. Just my 2 cents.

[NewfieMike]

This article makes me nervous.

 

why? The article said in 10 years, 20% of the force will be retiring. That's right about the time you'll be finished (assuming you get it now )

[ihatechem]

why? The article said in 10 years, 20% of the force will be retiring. That's right about the time you'll be finished (assuming you get it now )

 

but figuring in the massive # of current medical students set to graduate and current residents set to enter the workforce (the vast majority of whom are young and will work for ++++years), who knows what the situation will be like in 10 years. i think as someone above mentioned, specialist positions are exceedingly difficult to come by, especially in tertiary care facilities and the big cities. the real job market is going to be in general practice and fewer med students seem to be wanting to pursue family medicine

[bnface]

CaRMS match rates have never been higher; its easier to get into your specialty of choice. But the bottleneck is higher up now. As in all professions, more and more will be expected to get the same job. For instance, 1 or 2 fellowships in surgical fields for work in a community centre. Academia or major urban centre? Forget it unless you wanna spend 8 to 9 yrs training post-med school.

[rmorelan]

I have read reports - that this article indirectly confirms - that we are approaching the point where the doctor shortage will begin to resolve. All of those extra medical school spots will in the end have an actual effect.

 

I think we have become somewhat programmed to think that there will be an endless doctor shortage. I am not saying that it will resolved tomorrow but I think within the relatively near future we will technically have enough doctors overall (although specific areas/disciplines will continue to have issues).

[Guest copacetic]

but figuring in the massive # of current medical students set to graduate and current residents set to enter the workforce (the vast majority of whom are young and will work for ++++years), who knows what the situation will be like in 10 years. i think as someone above mentioned, specialist positions are exceedingly difficult to come by, especially in tertiary care facilities and the big cities. the real job market is going to be in general practice and fewer med students seem to be wanting to pursue family medicine

 

it has always been the case that if you want a specilaty position in a major city at a major academic centre you will need something other than just the MD. you need something else, like a second degree, or a fellowship to spice things up. the problem with specialties in canada is that unlike the US many will be localized in a few small centres. invariable academic centres. invariably in major cities. see the connection? this is because much of the resources are government controlled/supplied. it isi difficult to set up shop and just build your own OR, which is easy to do in the states. thats why it is my belief that if you want maximum flexibility it is best to be a generalist. IM or peds or family.

[Guest copacetic]

by the way i think the key sentence in the article is "The 2009 year saw a net gain of 92 doctors, the highest number in five years."

 

I also believe that there will continue to be a increase influx of canadians from the states and elsewhere who will be looking for residency positions.

[ihatechem]

by the way i think the key sentence in the article is "The 2009 year saw a net gain of 92 doctors, the highest number in five years."

 

I also believe that there will continue to be a increase influx of canadians from the states and elsewhere who will be looking for residency positions.

 

how often do canadians returning from medical school in the US/UK/australia etc. get residency spots in Canada?

 

for instance, in alberta right now, there are about 300 residency spots between the U of A and the U of C combined; the 2013 class will include ~180 students @ U of A and ~170 students from the U of C. don't need a math major to know that it'd be slim pickings for international graduates?

[cardiomegaly]

Every province is different - Alberta has the AIMG program, so IMGs must apply through that for a set of protected residency spots. But yes, the post-grad programs are going to have a hell of a time finding new residency spots for just Canadian grads alone. There will likely be a switch from 60-40 Royal College/Family Med to a 50-50 ratio.

[Mourning Cloak]

Probably germane to the discussion:

http://www.healthforceontario.ca/upload/en/whatishfo/needs-based_model_report-en.pdf

 

Some conclusions:

 

"The simulation estimates that the shortage of specialists will end by 2014. However, while the shortage of FM physicians is estimated to end by 2017, the trend begins to plateau in 2025. The variance of FM physicians is estimated to remain stable from 2025 to 2030, suggesting future examination for additional FM physicians during that timeframe."

 

"The results of the simulations suggest that the distribution and mix of physicians will be a higher priority in the future than overall physician supply."

[Guest copacetic]

Probably germane to the discussion:

http://www.healthforceontario.ca/upload/en/whatishfo/needs-based_model_report-en.pdf

 

Some conclusions:

 

"The simulation estimates that the shortage of specialists will end by 2014. However, while the shortage of FM physicians is estimated to end by 2017, the trend begins to plateau in 2025. The variance of FM physicians is estimated to remain stable from 2025 to 2030, suggesting future examination for additional FM physicians during that timeframe."

 

"The results of the simulations suggest that the distribution and mix of physicians will be a higher priority in the future than overall physician supply."

 

most of the medical shortage in canada is materially artificial. We have most of the personnel we need. the problem is resources, and distribution of resources.

[Robin Hood]

Do you think that will translate into bad news for premeds?

[rmorelan]

Do you think that will translate into bad news for premeds?

 

Ahhh in what way? In the short term all the school have the highest levels of seats for med students they have had is a very long time. That is quite good news overall. In terms of long term residency positions there may be additional selective pressures although everyone will get a spot somewhere. International graduates will find increase pressure over time as Canada is able to fill its own spots.

 

Just my take on things of course!

[DOC_Ma]

No comments on the salaries of docs. We might see a decrease of $ as the supply of docs increase. sigh.

[NewfieMike]

No comments on the salaries of docs. We might see a decrease of $ as the supply of docs increase. sigh.

 

doctors are still within the top paid careers. Why so greedy?

[ihatechem]

No comments on the salaries of docs. We might see a decrease of $ as the supply of docs increase. sigh.

 

seriously?! this is what u complain about? hopefully, med students like u go into something like pathology

[future_doc]

You may hate chem but have no reason to unleash unbefitting, rude words upon Doc_Ma.

 

We all know who Doc_Ma is who has our respect. Your post says much about you, nothing about Doc_Ma.

 

Learn to play nice and stop being a hater.

[Renin]

seriously?! this is what u complain about? hopefully, med students like u go into something like pathology

 

Don't insult pathology.

[Guest copacetic]

No comments on the salaries of docs. We might see a decrease of $ as the supply of docs increase. sigh.

 

highly unlikely. why? medicine is not really a free market thats why. if it were a free market alot of the foreign IMGs would have no problem being able to train, there would be alot of private medical schools in canada, more privately funded hospitals, and no negotiation between provinces and physician organizations for fees. in all seriousness the only things that actually cause physician salaries to go down in canada are budget cuts (which rarely occur...note there have been increased monies going towards physician salaries even in the down economy), attempted caps on physician salaries (which have proven a dramatic policy failure and usually been scrapped where they have been tried), and renegotiation of physician fees on procedures that used to be complex and time consuming but that have gotten more efficient and less complex.

 

Do you think that will translate into bad news for premeds?

 

i dont think this is the case at all. residency positions will increase with medical school positions. perhaps not to the same degree though. in either case we have a surplus of residency positions as is in certain specialties. canada has done a better job of predicting physician workforce needs than the USA. with this in mind it is still important to note that predictions of physician workforce needs remain notoriously inaccurate.

[Cher]

Let's not forget that population in Canada is growing too, so there will always be an increased need for doctors. Not to mention the so many that will retire soon. Just my 2 cents.

 

I agree with your 2 cents.

[future_doc]

And it is expected that 20% of the physicians, being over 60, will retire in the next 10 years.