Federal Election Thread

[Erk]

Aw, I was under the impression he meant bringing up the topic of gun registration was a good litmus test for mental illness.

[NLengr]

I can't access the registry, but the police who bring in the patient can. They'll usually volunteer to check when you ask them if they know if the patient has access to firearms.

 

Access to firearms makes suicide a much higher risk.

[NLengr]

What's everyone's take on the cons claim they will be defunding planned parenthood?

 

Personally, I think it will hurt them. People who care about banning abortion (and thus dislike PP, even though abortion is only a small portion of what they do) are already voting conservative. I think they're just scaring away undecided middle ground voters.

[Erk]

What's everyone's take on the cons claim they will be defunding planned parenthood?

 

Personally, I think it will hurt them. People who care about banning abortion (and thus dislike PP, even though abortion is only a small portion of what they do) are already voting conservative. I think they're just scaring away undecided middle ground voters.

 

I am not sure there are all that many undecided middle ground voters in this election. I think most of them are so sick of elections they aren't showing up. Note that in polls (which are very questionable I know) support is fluctuating between Liberals and NDP a lot, but conservatives have hardly shifted at all. All that seems to be happening is that the left-wing is rocking back and forth and the right-wing is not attracting anyone new or driving anyone away.

 

Also note that as a generally left-wing person (green party: fiscally moderate-capitalist, socially left-wing) I think this is all right. If the NDP gains enough that a liberal-ndp coalition is not a one-sided thing, coalition will be a far more democratic option. the only thing about it I don't like is the possibility of the liberals simply rolling over and absorbing the NDP, and that is looking less and less likely. Cooperation is key.

 

In my experience which I wholly admit to be totally biased and exposed only to a tiny sample size and therefore not representative of voters as a whole, I've found most conservative party voters I have spoken to are far less educated on the stance of the various parties (including their own preference) than other voters. They are also far less willing to explore what others believe. The conservatives I have spoken with are voting out of reflex, not knowledge of policy, and as such will not change their opinion because they are not gaining new knowledge with this stuff.

 

It kinda reminds me of being an atheist arguing religion. I would say six times out of ten, I know the bible far better than most christians I have debated with.

[Erk]

So, interesting things these last few days. They've made the election a lot more exciting, although I'm very concerned it's also been pushed towards a conservative majority, which I think would be the worst thing to happen to Canada since... I'm not really sure what since.

 

What do folks think of the much-vaunted NDP surge? As someone not too keen on (nor against) the NDP it hasn't changed my opinion of them much, but it has really affected my view of the liberals. I generally feel pretty indifferent about the Libs, but their attack-based strategy this election was already turning me off, and this sudden switch to bite the NDP for its gains makes them look so petty that I can no longer consider voting Liberal, even as a stategic vote. It makes me sad, I kinda like Ignatieff, but I think he's following all the wrong advisors.

 

I don't understand why parties in general and liberals in particular don't campaign based on their strengths. Liberals should be trying to steal seats from the moderates in the conservative party right now, not the NDP. Instead, for the entire election they've basically operated on a platform of "we are not these guys!"; that's one thing when operating against an incumbent party with an extremely poor track record ... now they're trying the same thing against a charismatic, young, increasingly successful party. Not the wisest plan.

[apache]

attack ads win votes, fear is more potent than probabilistic potential

 

So, interesting things these last few days. They've made the election a lot more exciting, although I'm very concerned it's also been pushed towards a conservative majority, which I think would be the worst thing to happen to Canada since... I'm not really sure what since.

 

What do folks think of the much-vaunted NDP surge? As someone not too keen on (nor against) the NDP it hasn't changed my opinion of them much, but it has really affected my view of the liberals. I generally feel pretty indifferent about the Libs, but their attack-based strategy this election was already turning me off, and this sudden switch to bite the NDP for its gains makes them look so petty that I can no longer consider voting Liberal, even as a stategic vote. It makes me sad, I kinda like Ignatieff, but I think he's following all the wrong advisors.

 

I don't understand why parties in general and liberals in particular don't campaign based on their strengths. Liberals should be trying to steal seats from the moderates in the conservative party right now, not the NDP. Instead, for the entire election they've basically operated on a platform of "we are not these guys!"; that's one thing when operating against an incumbent party with an extremely poor track record ... now they're trying the same thing against a charismatic, young, increasingly successful party. Not the wisest plan.

[Erk]

attack ads win votes, fear is more potent than probabilistic potential

 

That's the common wisdom. If the popularity polls mean anything though (and that's a big if), the Liberals may have found that adage drastically wrong. The NDP has run a marginally less attack-based campaign, and is presently blasting the LPC in polls.

 

Like I said though, it's pretty questionable how much polls actually mean.

[Apixaban85]

I don't think attack ads against the NDP will work as well as they did against the Liberals. Ignatieff and his Liberals were in a very weak position and Harper did the smart thing by attacking them, no doubt about it and it's been VERY effective thus far.

 

NDP meanwhile aren't exactly on the downfall, so attack ads against them won't have as much as an impact and what exactly will they target in these attack ads anyways that would make Layton look bad?

[Erk]

I don't think attack ads against the NDP will work as well as they did against the Liberals. Ignatieff and his Liberals were in a very weak position and Harper did the smart thing by attacking them, no doubt about it and it's been VERY effective thus far.

 

NDP meanwhile aren't exactly on the downfall, so attack ads against them won't have as much as an impact and what exactly will they target in these attack ads anyways that would make Layton look bad?

 

So far, mainly that Layton has been willing to work with others to accomplish his goals. And that NDP candidates are inexperienced, or are career politicians, depending on which day of the week you watch the attacks.

[apache]

i found some of the ndp's ads to be very passive-aggressive attack ads, sort of satirical in a way, with jack's coy smile and friendly tone

 

That's the common wisdom. If the popularity polls mean anything though (and that's a big if), the Liberals may have found that adage drastically wrong. The NDP has run a marginally less attack-based campaign, and is presently blasting the LPC in polls.

 

Like I said though, it's pretty questionable how much polls actually mean.

[kylamonkey]

I almost couldn't believe it when I saw an attack ad against the NDP last night. I thought "it has to be the Libs, why would the Cons be attacking the NDP" except that it had the distinct feel of a conservative ad... and of course, then it was a conservative ad.

 

I've been thinking about this for a few days, wouldn't it be interesting if there was a minority conservative government elected, with the NDP in second, and then the 3 parties formed a coalition gov with Layton as PM? It's not so far-fetched, and it would be SUPER interesting.

 

And then maybe Layton would shave his moustache!

[Erk]

That's actually what a lot of the punditry is about lately.

 

I'd be interested in seeing what that would do for Canada. I doubt Layton as the leader of a coalition would have the power to be such a massive spendthrift as he otherwise promises to be.

 

I despise the conservatives, but I also think Harper might be interested enough in clinging to power that if he gets his minority he might actually make some compromises with Layton. They've been willing to work together in the past. If the excesses of the Harper conservatives were tempered by the opposite excesses of the Layton NDP, we might actually see something middle of the road.

 

Seeing the extreme left rise to meet the extreme right makes me sad though. I miss the days of the middle ground, when Canadian politics were the somewhat-right versus the somewhat-left. I think that's where most Canadians lie, politically, and being forced to move to extremes does not fit my mental image of this country.

[lkthlttr]

That's actually what a lot of the punditry is about lately.

 

I'd be interested in seeing what that would do for Canada. I doubt Layton as the leader of a coalition would have the power to be such a massive spendthrift as he otherwise promises to be.

 

I despise the conservatives, but I also think Harper might be interested enough in clinging to power that if he gets his minority he might actually make some compromises with Layton. They've been willing to work together in the past. If the excesses of the Harper conservatives were tempered by the opposite excesses of the Layton NDP, we might actually see something middle of the road.

 

Seeing the extreme left rise to meet the extreme right makes me sad though. I miss the days of the middle ground, when Canadian politics were the somewhat-right versus the somewhat-left. I think that's where most Canadians lie, politically, and being forced to move to extremes does not fit my mental image of this country.

 

Do you think that the rise in popularity of the NDP is about the Canadian public moving further to the left though? I get the impression that most Canadians just distrust the Harper/Ignatieff combo and the NDP are a change from the same old, same old of Canadian politics.

[lkthlttr]

The thing is that I think people are so tired of Harper, and too turned off by Ignatieff that they have no choice but to vote for Layton. In Quebec, its because they are tired of Duceppe and his loony stance on sovereignty; at least the NDP has the potential to form a gov't.

 

Regardless, I think people are going to look at this election 10 years down the line and regret it. NDP will probably form the official opposition, triggering a merger with the Liberals, essentially creating a two party system like in the US. The problem with this is there isn't as much of an atmosphere for accountability as the parties will have less incentive to really fix the country's problems as there is a 50:50 chance of forming a gov't.

 

In addition, these results will hurt those who claim to be socially progressive but fiscally conservative. The NDP, at the federal level, don't have any economic sense and in a two party system, the conservatives will essentially become Republicans (American-kind) on social issues. Don't get me wrong, the Liberals aren't exactly fiscally prudent but the Liberals between 1993 and 2006 did a better job than any other North American governing party in the since the 60s.

 

But could it be worse than the alternative? Where the left vote gets split four ways and the party that only represents the ideals of 30-40% of the country wins a minority government and then sits on its hands for the following 18 months until getting restless again and calling another election? I don't see this as being accountable government.

 

I like to think of myself as socially progressive/fiscal moderate, and historically I've voted Liberal my whole life, but let's face it, at this point the Liberal brand is ruined. They are trying to revive their poll numbers by toting out Chretien, who was one of the better leaders this country has seen, but it's having no effect or worse. I really think we'd be better off if the NDP and Liberals merged to form a middle-left party that would represent the values of a majority of Canadians. The Green Party would be left for those that feel environmental issues eclipse all others, and of course there would still be the Bloc. But I really don't think that the Conservatives would be able to move further to the right on social issues in this country without being marginalized. In fact, I think a Liberal-NDP merger, if anything, would force the Conservatives more to the center socially, in order to position themselves as the true center party. All good things as far as I'm concerned.

 

I'm most excited about this election because it really could be the end of the road for Harper and Ignatieff if the NDP have as strong of a showing as the polls are suggesting at this point. If the Liberals are humiliated there isn't much chance that Ignatieff will stay around, and I don't know if after failing to win a majority in three consecutive elections that the Conservative party will entrust Harper with the leadership going forward. Again, all good things.

[colbert2011]

Despite the recent advent of Layton-mania, I'll still be voting Liberal as I feel they are the only responsible party capable of governing from the centre with past experience to back-up their rhetoric. It also helps that we have an honest, likeable Liberal MP in our area

 

Although Harper has been fairly centrist, I fear a conservative majority may drag the nation towards a more extreme trajectory. The NDP, on the other hand, are untested and I'm concerned about the quality/sustainability of a number of their proposals despite Jack Layton's dynamic magnetism and charisma.

 

Nonetheless, it is heartening see physicians "in the thick of it all." Apparently, 11 MDs are vying for seats:

 

http://www.cma.ca/index.php?ci_id=202867&la_id=1

[Erk]

The thing is that I think people are so tired of Harper, and too turned off by Ignatieff that they have no choice but to vote for Layton. In Quebec, its because they are tired of Duceppe and his loony stance on sovereignty; at least the NDP has the potential to form a gov't.

 

Regardless, I think people are going to look at this election 10 years down the line and regret it. NDP will probably form the official opposition, triggering a merger with the Liberals, essentially creating a two party system like in the US. The problem with this is there isn't as much of an atmosphere for accountability as the parties will have less incentive to really fix the country's problems as there is a 50:50 chance of forming a gov't.

 

In addition, these results will hurt those who claim to be socially progressive but fiscally conservative. The NDP, at the federal level, don't have any economic sense and in a two party system, the conservatives will essentially become Republicans (American-kind) on social issues. Don't get me wrong, the Liberals aren't exactly fiscally prudent but the Liberals between 1993 and 2006 did a better job than any other North American governing party in the since the 60s.

 

A few have called this. We're coming from a 2-party system not long ago; I don't see a liberal-NDP merger as all that likely, but if it did happen I don't think it would become Canada's answer to the Democrats. Parties come and go in Canada and always have, I see no reason for that to change.

 

I think Layton in power could (not necessarily will) be something we regret in the short term, but I think the long term he really won't have the power to enact anything that screws us over completely.

 

Further, the NDP is the only one of the three major parties with a stance towards electoral reform. If they can get some serious talk on that going, Canada WILL benefit. I am not saying proportional representation is the answer, but anything but what we have right now is pretty clearly necessary considering the recent state of canadian politics.

[kylamonkey]

Regardless of anything else- this is about as exciting as Cdn politics gets, and that's exciting.

 

I'm voting NDP in my riding. The Liberal candidate is a total unknown- in fact, I have not seen a single sign for him, and I didn't even know his name until yesterday! I am wondering if it's the same in other rural areas of the country? Are the Liberals only really a city entity at this point?

 

Adding: my riding has been NDP for quite a while and probably has it sewn up. Jean Crowder is a visible force in Ottawa and I think a lot of people in this area see the work she does and will vote for her based on that- although there is always a Conservative 2nd place here.

[Cerena]

Will definitely be voting NDP.

[Wayward son]

I am wondering if it's the same in other rural areas of the country? Are the Liberals only really a city entity at this point?

 

My mostly rural riding is held by a liberal and I would be very surprised if that changed this election.

[kylamonkey]

Annd... you think we have an issue in Canada surrounding the long-gun registry:

 

"Docs vs. Glocks" in Florida

 

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2011/04/docs-v-glocks-goes-to-governor.html

[The Law]

I voted Liberal because the NDP didn't even get 15% support in my riding last election and the Liberals won by only about 200 votes. I did want to vote NDP, but I was scared this would just split the left vote and give the Conservatives a win. I do hope the NDP has a very strong showing tomorrow, I'm fed up with Liberal disorganization.

[Apixaban85]

I voted Liberal because the NDP didn't even get 15% support in my riding last election and the Liberals won by only about 200 votes. I did want to vote NDP, but I was scared this would just split the left vote and give the Conservatives a win. I do hope the NDP has a very strong showing tomorrow, I'm fed up with Liberal disorganization.

 

I wonder how many other people have this same thought and end up voting for the Liberals, ultimately leading to a Liberal win over the NDP/Conservatives.

 

Not criticizing you or anything, because I see the basis for that especially if you don't want the Conservatives to win

[codebar]

I voted Liberal because the NDP didn't even get 15% support in my riding last election and the Liberals won by only about 200 votes. I did want to vote NDP, but I was scared this would just split the left vote and give the Conservatives a win. I do hope the NDP has a very strong showing tomorrow, I'm fed up with Liberal disorganization.

 

I hope there will be thousands thinking like you !

[kylamonkey]

I have absolutely nothing against strategic voting, BTW. I happen to be in a riding where the NDP MP is great and I want to see her continue to represent me.

 

Also...

 

Replace the 4 stars with the "s" word to get to the website.

 

****HarperDid.com

[Wayward son]

I voted Liberal because the NDP didn't even get 15% support in my riding last election and the Liberals won by only about 200 votes. I did want to vote NDP, but I was scared this would just split the left vote and give the Conservatives a win. I do hope the NDP has a very strong showing tomorrow, I'm fed up with Liberal disorganization.

 

I did the same thing. My Liberal MP is a pretty strong candidate who easily won the last couple Federal elections. Despite being a political junky, I have heard and seen absolutely nothing from the NDP candidate (who I suspect entered the campaign believing she was basically no more than a placeholder name on the ballott for traditional NDP supporters to check off). Signs on private lawns are overwhelmingly Liberal and Conservative. I could see no evidence that my riding was more than a two way race.