UBC Admission Blog

[jamal420]

Did any one notice that the last blog entry was September 4, 2013? Last year, there werr 3 more blog entry by now. No information about how many people applied this year!!!

[captainmp]

yup, i keep on checking too.

[drmum]

There is a new update as of today. Looks like they've been paying attention around here!

[esselle]

wow

 

we reached another record number of applications this year. Over 2100 were submitted!

 

Thought last year's record of over 1900 was high; guessing it's even higher this year due to the care card being accepted as BC residency thing this cycle. Pessimistic, but don't think it bodes well, relative competitiveness/standing wise.

[Guest humhum]

wow

 

 

 

Thought last year's record of over 1900 was high; guessing it's even higher this year due to the care card being accepted as BC residency thing this cycle. Pessimistic, but don't think it bodes well, relative competitiveness/standing wise.

 

 

This kind of thought process might not be very productive. The blog does also make it a point to mention that for some reason they had to deal with a lot of incomplete applications.

 

Also, the only stat to worry about is admission rate, not the total number of applicants. The admission rate at UBC has been remarkably consistent over the years. Unless there is for some reason a huge unprecedented dip in admission rate this year, then the number of applicants has no bearing on individual probability of being accepted compared to previous years.

 

The admission rate is about 20% for in province. Even if assuming that if all of the record number of applicants were all valid and complete applications, then we are looking at only a difference of 20-40 additional people that they would have to find seats for. Either they find the seats, or about 30 people that would have gotten in previously don't... Are you betting that you are in the bottom 30/300=10% of the competitive applicant pool? Then yes, maybe your chances are reduced, but I'm betting you might not be. Who knows?

 

P.s. My numbers are back of envelope guesses. Refer to official stats for better precision.

[canucks10]

wow

 

 

 

Thought last year's record of over 1900 was high; guessing it's even higher this year due to the care card being accepted as BC residency thing this cycle. Pessimistic, but don't think it bodes well, relative competitiveness/standing wise.

 

I don't know If people were moving to get residency I think moving to alberta would be more benifical than BC. They have 2 schools and admissions average for IP in alberta are lower than admissions average for IP in BC.

[are we ther yet]

The admission rate is about 20% for in province. Even if assuming that if all of the record number of applicants were all valid and complete applications, then we are looking at only a difference of 20-40 additional people that they would have to find seats for. Either they find the seats, or about 30 people that would have gotten in previously don't... Are you betting that you are in the bottom 30/300=10% of the competitive applicant pool? Then yes, maybe your chances are reduced, but I'm betting you might not be. Who knows?

 

There is no way they are adding seats this year. Besides already being one of the biggest programs in NA, there is not enough physical space.

[Guest humhum]

There is no way they are adding seats this year. Besides already being one of the biggest programs in NA, there is not enough physical space.

 

And how is it that you know this with such certainty? You don't imagine they could find 10 additional seats for each of the 4 sites across the province? It seems only logical that somewhere in their long-term goals they are taking into account that the province's population has been growing year-over-year, and the physicians they need to churn out has to keep pace with their historical rate - if not with the population growth rate.

 

Either way, in my opinion is much less likely that the admission rate for in-province students will drop below the 18-21% rate it has been for the past 5 years, regardless of the number of applicants.

[sgh87]

And how is it that you know this with such certainty? You don't imagine they could find 10 additional seats for each of the 4 sites across the province? It seems only logical that somewhere in their long-term goals they are taking into account that the province's population has been growing year-over-year, and the physicians they need to churn out has to keep pace with their historical rate - if not with the population growth rate.

 

Either way, in my opinion is much less likely that the admission rate for in-province students will drop below the 18-21% rate it has been for the past 5 years, regardless of the number of applicants.

 

There will not be any additional seats opened. It's not as simple of a process as you are making it out to be. It's not a matter of 'oh hey let's just add some seats, no big deal.' The BC government has made it perfectly clear that 288 is the maximum number of seats that will be offered for the near future. In fact, there were thoughts that the numbers may in fact decline due to funding issues and pressures from the government. The number of seats available is a far more complicated issue than what you are implying it to be.

[Flow Cytometry]

I also predict that the spots at medical school probably will probably max out by now, and may in fact drop in the future.

 

The problem is not just a funding issue at the medical school level, but more a level at the residency spots/ and job positions available.

 

From my experience as a recent grad in a residency program at UBC, I also feel that quite a number of specialties face the issues of insufficient job positions for the new doctors coming out from residency. That include quite a lot of surgical specialties (gen Surg, orthopedics, etc...), as well as other non-surgical ones (internal med, pathology, etc...) In fact, some of the primary care specialties which were considered to be easy to find jobs within the city area, such as psychiatry, neurology, general internal med are alll getting competitive to find a job these days, in the lower mainland. (of course, one can always argue that they don't mind working at small town or rural areas, but even with that, job positions are getting tight for lots of specialties). Some subspecialties such as Cardiology are cutting down the number of fellowship spots as the supply is more than the demand from the job market. However, one may also argue that medicine jobs come in waves, but i think we are now at tail end of doctors demand, in most fields other than Family Medicine.

 

With a huge med school class graduated every year, and without much increase in specialty residency spots, the only residency spots which the government/ med school is trying to increase is Family medicine. Family medicine is still relatively easy for jobs these days, and probably for the next 7-10 yrs at least.

 

So I would guess there probably won't be an increase in med school enrollments for now.

[TheBoss]

There will not be any additional seats opened. It's not as simple of a process as you are making it out to be. It's not a matter of 'oh hey let's just add some seats, no big deal.' The BC government has made it perfectly clear that 288 is the maximum number of seats that will be offered for the near future. In fact, there were thoughts that the numbers may in fact decline due to funding issues and pressures from the government. The number of seats available is a far more complicated issue than what you are implying it to be.

 

Haha yup, exactly. It's not like, say, certain undergrad classes where they could suddenly go "Hey, let's just book a bigger room!"

[are we ther yet]

And how is it that you know this with such certainty? You don't imagine they could find 10 additional seats for each of the 4 sites across the province? It seems only logical that somewhere in their long-term goals they are taking into account that the province's population has been growing year-over-year, and the physicians they need to churn out has to keep pace with their historical rate - if not with the population growth rate.

 

Either way, in my opinion is much less likely that the admission rate for in-province students will drop below the 18-21% rate it has been for the past 5 years, regardless of the number of applicants.

 

Well lets see.... I am a current student in the program and the lecture hall, anatomy lab, and multipurpose lab are full. I guess they could build another $110 million facility to keep your percentage accurate.

There is also a fair amount of concern about the jobs available for future grads, but other posters have mentioned that already.

[Guest humhum]

How did this turn into a debate about graduation cap and the issues of position scarcity for specialists? And $100 million dollar facility to fit in 10 more students? Wow, someone torched that straw man into ashes. A lot of speculation happening here, none of which I claimed nor which you know for certain, nor anything I had any interest in arguing for or against.

 

All I pointed out was that historically the acceptance rate for in-province students has been betwen 18 to 21% to calm the worries of someone who was concerned about his/her chances this year given the "record number of applicants". In fact, last year had a "record number of applicants" and the acceptance rate was still higher than some previous years. These are not my numbers. These are the UBC stats. I don't know how they pull it off, but it is so consistent that it is unlikely to be by accident.

 

Regarding number of seats. I simply pointed out that it is more likely the number of seats will change before acceptance rate will. A very hypothetical unlikely scenario, again, meant to only to lend some optimism and assurance to nervous hearts. But I guess some prefer feeling their chances are doomed based on some selective and out-of-context interpretation of a piece of data casualy posted by an admin personnel on the admissions blog.

[Guest humhum]

For anyone interested in real data and facts, rather than doom & gloom, here is a nice and fuzzy plot from UBC's own statistics in the past decade.

 

Surprise! They do add seats. They lowest the IP acceptance rate has gone is 18.5%. And surprise, the acceptance rate is amazingly stable year after year.

 

In fact, if you look at the data carefully, it seems like there is a slight bump in number of seats following a year of dip in % acceptance rate (see 2006 and 2010). If I was a speculator, I might say they actually do adjust to keep their percentages on target.

 

 

But hey, maybe others have insider info I don't got. Maybe from this year on, the dream of medical school entrance is truly more impossible than ever ever before. This is it! It is over. No chance ever again! This year on they will start reducing acceptance rate down to 5% in-province to ensure that the only ones getting in are the god-like 95% cGPA, 3 olympic gold medals, while spending their summers since the age of 12 feeding african children, and published on breakthrough genetic findings in Science and Nature at the age of 16. Specialists are going homeless! The system is going broke! The end is nigh!!!!!!!!! Now, let's all mourn the dead dream of medical school

 

[TheBoss]

Surprise! They do add seats.

 

Of course they add seats, how else do you think med schools get bigger? We just said the chance of that happening mid-cycle with no prior indication is essentially negligible, as there's a lot involved and it takes time.

 

Regarding number of seats. I simply pointed out that it is more likely the number of seats will change before acceptance rate will.

 

On what reasoning?

[sgh87]

It's not about being doom and gloomy. It's about being realistic. I wish everyone applying the best of luck, but I'd rather be realistic regarding facts than optimistic about opinions. My optimism won't get anyone into medical school - if only I had that kind of power. It's simply a fact that there will not be more than 288 people accepted into the medical program, no matter how you slice it. It's just that simple.

[Guest humhum]

There will not be any additional seats opened. It's not as simple of a process as you are making it out to be. It's not a matter of 'oh hey let's just add some seats, no big deal.' The BC government has made it perfectly clear that 288 is the maximum number of seats that will be offered for the near future. In fact, there were thoughts that the numbers may in fact decline due to funding issues and pressures from the government. The number of seats available is a far more complicated issue than what you are implying it to be.

 

It's not about being doom and gloomy. It's about being realistic. I wish everyone applying the best of luck, but I'd rather be realistic regarding facts than optimistic about opinions. My optimism won't get anyone into medical school - if only I had that kind of power. It's simply a fact that there will not be more than 288 people accepted into the medical program, no matter how you slice it. It's just that simple.

 

Except that it isn't. Being optimistic or realistic or pessimistic has no relevance here.

 

Historical evidence is that UBC adjusts the number of seats within a target window of acceptance rate, at least for in-province students.

 

But like as mentioned above, if UBC's own numbers don't convince you, then you are mostly likely blessed with some insider info or some gift of omniscience that the rest of us aren't.

 

I especially like the part you are convinced the number of seats not only will NOT increase, but they will actually decrease. Awesome, let's go with that. Personally, I'm more in favor of reducing the amount of misinformation about the whole medical school process that is is perpetuated Ad infinitum in on-line forums.

[TheBoss]

Historical evidence is that UBC adjusts the number of seats within a target window of acceptance rate, at least for in-province students.

 

They do not, get out of your dream world. The class size is determined by politics, the mandate set by the BC government, and the amount of funding available.

[sgh87]

Except that it isn't. Being optimistic or realistic or pessimistic has no relevance here.

 

Historical evidence is that UBC adjusts the number of seats within a target window of acceptance rate, at least for in-province students.

 

But like as mentioned above, if UBC's own numbers don't convince you, then you are mostly likely blessed with some insider info or some gift of omniscience that the rest of us aren't.

 

I especially like the part you are convinced the number of seats not only will NOT increase, but they will actually decrease. Awesome, let's go with that. Personally, I'm more in favor of reducing the amount of misinformation about the whole medical school process that is is perpetuated Ad infinitum in on-line forums.

 

You need to step out of la la land and begin to understand how the system works. UBC would love to have 500 seats if they could. But they can't. Why? Because each medical student they accept costs them ~ $400,000. Therefore, they need significant funding to be able to accommodate that. That funding is beyond just the university. You think they increased seats because more people applied? LOL! They did so because they finally received the funding to do so. The government has put pressure on them which is why it has been rumoured they may need to reduce seats.

 

Get your facts straight and do your homework before pressing the reply button because you look more ignorant with every post. This isn't fantasy land where you increase seats just because more applied. It's the real world.

[Evan89]

I'm going to sidestep the seat number argument and offer my opinion on the application increase: Calgary has introduced hard cutoffs. UCal used to get approximately 700 OOP applications a year, but now that they require an 11VR and 3.8 cGPA that number has dropped to 219 (UCal is the only other school I applied to, wish my MCAT was higher than 28:( )

 

So, I believe its possible that people who may have otherwise applied to Calgary as their "Western Canada" choice, may have now applied to UBC instead. Unfortunately UBC has not yet released the IP/OOP spread. Of course this could be completely wrong.

 

As far as seat number goes, I doubt it has been increased. I wouldnt be surprised if they squeezed in maybe one or two more people than quota, but certainly not more. Remember you are a BC Government investment as a medical student, and they choose how much to invest.

[bighopes100]

[Guest humhum]

 

Get your facts straight and do your homework before pressing the reply button because you look more ignorant with every post. This isn't fantasy land where you increase seats just because more applied. It's the real world.

 

Bravo, so convincing! Never before such graceful string of words have much such a strong argument. The part implying I don't understand how the world works is a nice touch. ok! I'm going by your amazing suggestion and do my homework, and completely ignore a decade's worth of statistics published by UBC which entirely refutes your conjecture.

 

Buddy, just look up. Year after year the acceptance rate has been consistent. What part of that is so hard for you to grasp? The math part?

 

What is in it for you to deny so much historical trend as evidence and embrace instead some gloom scenario?

[Guest humhum]

They do not, get out of your dream world. The class size is determined by politics, the mandate set by the BC government, and the amount of funding available.

 

Yes, there is so much evidence that acceptance rates will fall off dramatically starting this year. After all, there are two people on the internet saying so, and they can't be wrong; a decade's worth of statistics from UBC be damned. How would it serve me or anyone to "dream" this anyways?

 

Relax dudes, and review the original thread. Someone was worried additional applicants are going to kill his/her chances this year, and I simply pointed out that barring some massive outlier anomaly, this year the acceptance rate will be in line with every previous year of the past decade.

 

This has nothing to do with your theories of political contingencies that drive medical school matriculations.

[sgh87]

Bravo, so convincing! Never before such graceful string of words have much such a strong argument. The part implying I don't understand how the world works is a nice touch. ok! I'm going by your amazing suggestion and do my homework, and completely ignore a decade's worth of statistics published by UBC which entirely refutes your conjecture.

 

Buddy, just look up. Year after year the acceptance rate has been consistent. What part of that is so hard for you to grasp?

 

You just don't get it. Why waste any more time trying to explain the reality of well-known issues, when you're fixated on your own beliefs to help you feel better as you apply? The fact that you think the number of seats available are catered to the number of applicants is the cutest part of all this. Best of luck.

[are we ther yet]

You are getting way too worked up about this. I agree with you that it is unlikely that the IP acceptance rate will drop below 18%. I say that because it is unlikely that all the additional applicants are only in province. It would take around 1450 IP applicants to drop below that 18% mark. I also think that people arguing with you don't all believe that the rate will drop below 18% in the near future.

All that being said, everyone is arguing with you because UBC won't just change the seats. Claiming stats are on your side is insane; it would mean UBC is fluctuating their seat number every year, which they clearly are not.

UBC clearly states that there are 288 seats on their website, and up to 10% are for OP. The reasons this won't change are numerous. Besides everything everyone has already said, UBC is introducing a new med program that would also prevent changes to class size (both larger or smaller). They are not going to change the size of the distributed sites because they love the size of the distributed sites. And finally, other resources are an issue; they had enough trouble getting preceptors for family practice this year, and adding seats would compound that problem.

It's nice that you think you know how they operate but your speculation about changing numbers of seats is the most wild and unfounded. You attack us, saying we don't have insider information, but a number of us are in the program and the faculty is very open about a lot of this type of information.

If you're likely to receive an interview due to your stats, I would work on acknowledging you're wrong, and that you don't know everything, or your interview score will suffer.

Good luck.