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TFR Decrease but AQ Formula Change?


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From last year's stats to the stats that just came out today, it appears like the TFR has decreased to get an interview:

1. 51.67/100 this year vs. 52.91/100 last year

However, at the very end of the page where is says "Interview Candidates" the Average AQ last year was 27.48 for 87.75% GPA. This year the Average AQ is 27.47 for 88.05% GPA. So nearly identical AQ scores, but the % are definitely different. 

Is it possible they changed the AQ Formula this year? So that means the TFR decrease is not really a decrease at all....

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Well, the AQ (and NAQ) is technically standardized. So one can assume that as the pool gets more competitive in terms of GPA, that the same GPA will get you a lower and lower AQ as time goes by. Remember, their formula is not as simple as y = mx + b. It definitely involves a bell curve of some sort. 

The reason for the TFR to decrease very likely has something to due with the drop in the number of applicants. It was only a small drop of around 100 apps but the TFR drop (1.24) is also a relatively small drop. Remember, the TFR cutoff is basically set so that only 570 apps (or whatever # they actually want to interview) is above that cutoff. Fewer apps or less competitive pool means that they need to reduce the cutoff a wee bit to maintain the number of interviews sent out.

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48 minutes ago, sepsis said:

Actually it's as simple as y=mx+b. The formula is AQ = 1.626*AGPA - 115.7, based on the AQ scores of the people who just got their rejection letters.

That's interesting, I thought previous years that the linear formula worked reasonably well but still was always off by a little bit when calculating peoples numbers. Did every single point fall directly on that line?? If so they must still be using some form of standardization to determine the formula. Good to know!

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21 hours ago, Nandos said:

That's interesting, I thought previous years that the linear formula worked reasonably well but still was always off by a little bit when calculating peoples numbers. Did every single point fall directly on that line?? If so they must still be using some form of standardization to determine the formula. Good to know!

Yup R2 = 1. Perfectly linear. I expected a normal curve or something, but I guess normalization is not needed since the applicant pool is a normal distribution anyways. Though I did only graph 15 data points...

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52 minutes ago, sepsis said:

Yup R2 = 1. Perfectly linear. I expected a normal curve or something, but I guess normalization is not needed since the applicant pool is a normal distribution anyways. Though I did only graph 15 data points...

 

It's as close as you can probably get but not perfectly linear. Because AQ is out of 50 and someone with 100 should have 50/50 but according to your formula:

100*1.626-115.7=46.9

Also when you apply some of the rejectee's scores, the AQ value is off by some decimals when this formula is used.

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13 hours ago, azm said:

 

It's as close as you can probably get but not perfectly linear. Because AQ is out of 50 and someone with 100 should have 50/50 but according to your formula:

100*1.626-115.7=46.9

Also when you apply some of the rejectee's scores, the AQ value is off by some decimals when this formula is used.

You're assuming it is possible to get a perfect 50/50 AQ score. Is that actually stated anywhere by UBC? 

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