How'd they go?

[Alastriss]

nice..mine is only UWO (~45) + Queen's (~40)

[daryn]

nice..mine is only UWO (~45) + Queen's (~40)

 

Same! Haha, I might just have to fight you for it.

 

Kidding aside, would it benefit us more or less if there are less people who got interviews at both?

[A-Stark]

Well, since any one person can only go to one school, the optimal allocation of applicants is such that everyone interviews everywhere, but the total number of interviewed applicants equals the actual number of applicants.

 

[lostintime]

Eck, coming up. I wonder how interviews will be different this year compared to previously now that they have the sketch. Like how UT focuses so much on your essay/sketch, I wonder if Queens does the same. Oh well, will find out soon enough.

[The Law]

Eck, coming up. I wonder how interviews will be different this year compared to previously now that they have the sketch. Like how UT focuses so much on your essay/sketch, I wonder if Queens does the same. Oh well, will find out soon enough.

 

They are indeed coming up! Haha, feels like my life is on the line next week!

[vip_138]

LOL, says the guy who told me on MSN "I did some calculations and it appears I have approximately a 97.5% chance of getting into medical school this year.":p

 

97.6 to be more accurate. And actually, now I've recalculated it to be a 99.46% (6 repeating of course)

 

 

wow, its gonna suck if i don't get in at all lol

[Alastriss]

97.6 to be more accurate. And actually, now I've recalculated it to be a 99.46% (6 repeating of course)

 

 

wow, its gonna suck if i don't get in at all lol

 

lol what interviews do you have?

[KMG007]

97.6 to be more accurate. And actually, now I've recalculated it to be a 99.46% (6 repeating of course)

 

 

wow, its gonna suck if i don't get in at all lol

 

Out of curiosity are you adding perentages together? Ex. 30% at one school, 30% at another school... etc. Sorry to say if so it might not be as high as you think...but then say you have like 8 interviews or something like that: All the power to you! Way to go!

 

I figure I have a 1 in 3 shot at 3 schools...hopefully one will come my way!

[lostintime]

Lol I think vip is being sarcastic?

 

The only way you can get 99.46% is if you are on your way, driving for O-week, and the 0.44% is in case something horrible/unfortunate happens to you on the way....(but actually it would be higher than 0.46% given the % of motor/freak accident prevalence).

[vip_138]

lol, actually, you'ld expect me to be sarcastic, but i'm not ... altho i don't personally believe i have a 99% chance either

 

KMG: I don't have 8 interviews lol, that'd be insane, but i do have a few. basically, i figured out odds of interview/acceptance for each school so, if each school had say 50% chance and if i had say 3 interviews, i'ld figure my chances are 1-.5^3.

 

also a very key point is that that's assuming each interview score i get is independent of eachother, but they obviously aren't.

[KMG007]

Well good luck Vip! I'm not sure what my chances are beyond individual schools...but the more I calculate it the more I get nervous about May 15th! So I will try and wait...I think it is 57 days now! So maybe I count some things!

[lostintime]

Whoa..which school has 50% chance? All the ones I'm interviewing at (not many heh...small sample size) have ilke 30 some odd %.

[KMG007]

University of Toronto is about a 50% and if you use the past year students who declined the school it is looking closer to 60% I believe.

[Alastriss]

Out of curiosity are you adding perentages together? Ex. 30% at one school, 30% at another school... etc. Sorry to say if so it might not be as high as you think...but then say you have like 8 interviews or something like that: All the power to you! Way to go!

 

I figure I have a 1 in 3 shot at 3 schools...hopefully one will come my way!

 

I think it is like that because you only want 1 event to occur

[Alastriss]

The probability of getting into med school based on interview chance IS by adding up the percentages together. You want 1 event to occur. So if you have 2 interviews that are 40 each your probability is 40 + 40 = 80%. Why is that too high and why is it that so many of you refuse to accept it? it's because it's wrong! You are corrent to not accept it. The numbers are wrong because they assume:

 

The ad comm is randomly picking 40% of students being interviewed - NOT TRUE because we know that applicants are selectively chosen.

 

The two events are independent of each other - NOT TRUE, because you are the same participant at both events. If you sucked at one, you are likely to suck at another. If you rocked one, you are more likely to rock the other.

 

Moral of the story - statistics are futile when it comes to something like this. Your time is better spent reading up on ethics or current events.

[lostintime]

Haha, but I can also argue--if you suck at one, it may give you more motivation/practice to do better on the next one!

 

Why is UT so high--50%? But actually, the quality of UT applicants should be higher than UWO/Queens...because UWO/Queens is a numbers game, and you're bound to get numbers people who don't do anything (this sounds mean, but it's true), whereas UT reviews the entire file. So the 50% goes down and the Queens/UWO 40% goes up.

 

Ah, no one ever said this is actually "useful" to study stats. It's just kinda fun and a good procrastinatnio tool. Heh.

 

disclaimer: above idea again is credited to Alastriss and I BOTH. Duel scheduled in the future.

[The Law]

The probability of getting into med school based on interview chance IS by adding up the percentages together. You want 1 event to occur. So if you have 2 interviews that are 40 each your probability is 40 + 40 = 80%. Why is that too high and why is it that so many of you refuse to accept it? it's because it's wrong! You are corrent to not accept it. The numbers are wrong because they assume:

 

The ad comm is randomly picking 40% of students being interviewed - NOT TRUE because we know that applicants are selectively chosen.

 

The two events are independent of each other - NOT TRUE, because you are the same participant at both events. If you sucked at one, you are likely to suck at another. If you rocked one, you are more likely to rock the other.

 

Moral of the story - statistics are futile when it comes to something like this. Your time is better spent reading up on ethics or current events.

 

 

LOL, someone paid a tad bit too much attention in stats class. hahaha

[vip_138]

The probability of getting into med school based on interview chance IS by adding up the percentages together. You want 1 event to occur. So if you have 2 interviews that are 40 each your probability is 40 + 40 = 80%.

 

actually, its wrong but not exactly for the reason you stated (there's another reason too). Technically, you don't EVER add the two events, you find out the probability of you not getting into each one so .6*.6 and then subtract that from 100%. So in this case its, 64% of getting into atleast 1 medschool.

 

Now your point is still valid and i made a key note that this 64% is not valid anyways, because it assumes independent interview scores.

 

as for toronto, its probably high, because they get more applicants and have a larger accepted class size than the other schools and since they do full file reviews, they probably don't have to 'weed' out as many applicants as the other schools at the interview stage. Also, a lot of schools, when you're applying as OOP, have very high chances at the interview stage, usually higher than 50%, because of very high waitlist movement.

[The Law]

actually, its wrong but not exactly for the reason you stated (there's another reason too). Technically, you don't EVER add the two events, you find out the probability of you not getting into each one so .6*.6 and then subtract that from 100%. So in this case its, 64% of getting into atleast 1 medschool.

 

Now your point is still valid and i made a key note that this 64% is not valid anyways, because it assumes independent interview scores.

 

as for toronto, its probably high, because they get more applicants and have a larger accepted class size than the other schools and since they do full file reviews, they probably don't have to 'weed' out as many applicants as the other schools at the interview stage. Also, a lot of schools, when you're applying as OOP, have very high chances at the interview stage, usually higher than 50%, because of very high waitlist movement.

 

Vippy. Yo mama is > 50%. yeah.

[Alastriss]

actually, its wrong but not exactly for the reason you stated (there's another reason too). Technically, you don't EVER add the two events, you find out the probability of you not getting into each one so .6*.6 and then subtract that from 100%. So in this case its, 64% of getting into atleast 1 medschool.

 

Now your point is still valid and i made a key note that this 64% is not valid anyways, because it assumes independent interview scores.

 

as for toronto, its probably high, because they get more applicants and have a larger accepted class size than the other schools and since they do full file reviews, they probably don't have to 'weed' out as many applicants as the other schools at the interview stage. Also, a lot of schools, when you're applying as OOP, have very high chances at the interview stage, usually higher than 50%, because of very high waitlist movement.

 

 

We are using the same rules..weird? ur saying what is the probability of the event "not getting rejected" happening twice

 

and im saying what is the probability of getting in hapening onces.

 

Whenyou want to get heads and u get 2 flips and u want 1 to succeed then you add the probabilities together.

 

when you want to get tails 2 times, you multiply the probability of not getting heads by itself cuz that event has to occur two times..hmm

[Alastriss]

ok but when you say 0.6 x 0.6 then thats the probability of not getting rejected at both med schools..don't you agree?

[vip_138]

.6*.6 is the probability of being rejected by both medschools

 

you can't actually 'add' probabilities of 2 different events like that tho (you can only add specific events that together add up a probability of 1 for the given situation). using your example of of queens and western, lets also say they have an interview at UofT (lets say 60% chance). Then with your method you'ld add 40+40+60 = 140% ... obviously impossible. Same with the coins, so say even for flipping heads and you get 2 tosses, then it would be 1-.5^2

 

just to make sure i'm clear, here's an example:

 

toss 1 :::::::: toss 2 :::::::::: probability

: H ::::::::::::: H :::::::::::: .5*.5 = .25

: T ::::::::::::: T :::::::::::: .5*.5 = .25

: T ::::::::::::: H :::::::::::: .5*.5 = .25

: H ::::::::::::: T :::::::::::: .5*.5 = .25

 

now say you wanted to know the chances of you getting atleast 1 H, then you would add rows 1, 3, and 4 probabilities, thus the probability is 75%. If you notice, this is also the same as the probability of getting T twice (row 2) and then subtracting it from 1. ie. 1-.5*.5 = 75%.

[Alastriss]

.6*.6 is the probability of being rejected by both medschools

 

you can't actually 'add' probabilities of 2 different events like that tho (you can only add specific events that together add up a probability of 1 for the given situation). using your example of of queens and western, lets also say they have an interview at UofT (lets say 60% chance). Then with your method you'ld add 40+40+60 = 140% ... obviously impossible. Same with the coins, so say even for flipping heads and you get 2 tosses, then it would be 1-.5^2

 

just to make sure i'm clear, here's an example:

 

toss 1 :::::::: toss 2 :::::::::: probability

: H ::::::::::::: H :::::::::::: .5*.5 = .25

: T ::::::::::::: T :::::::::::: .5*.5 = .25

: T ::::::::::::: H :::::::::::: .5*.5 = .25

: H ::::::::::::: T :::::::::::: .5*.5 = .25

 

now say you wanted to know the chances of you getting atleast 1 H, then you would add rows 1, 3, and 4 probabilities, thus the probability is 75%. If you notice, this is also the same as the probability of getting T twice (row 2) and then subtracting it from 1. ie. 1-.5*.5 = 75%.

 

 

Well done VIP, i was missing the fact that the probabilities had to sum up to 100%

[kaysersoze]

u guys are gay!

[The Law]

I really enjoyed my Queen's interview and the interview weekend. First, the med students are so awesome. I'm really glad I went to that bar night thing on Friday, the med students were so helpful in calming down my nerves (and helpful throughout the whole weekend).

 

Of course, I got no sleep the night before my interview. Just kept thinking, wow, I'm going to bed and waking up and then it's really happening! haha... anyway, based on rumours that I heard, I was expecting that they were going to be really stone faced and not too responsive, but I found my panel to be the exact opposite. They were so friendly! I really enjoyed my interview very much, it was just a really long conversation and my panel made me feel at ease. I thought my performance was pretty good, but really - who can ever tell?? I'm glad I took the time to think about each of my experiences and did a couple mock interviews. Those were really helpful, since some of my mock interview questions came up on the real thing! Now it's really just a waiting game. It's obvious how many phenomenal applicants there are out there, from meeting a lot of people over the weekend.

 

Good luck everyone!