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Wait List Speculation

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CruiseUC Newbie

CruiseUC

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Hello everyone, I am an anxious waitlister too. This is my second time being waitlisted at U of C. I know it's really difficult, but let's still try to lead a normal life and hope for the best! :)

 

I totally agree with you. Though it is easier said than done to have a normal life now, but not impossible to do.

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mfork Newbie

mfork

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Well, I have officially gotten the "you're too low on the waitlist" email:

"I am writing to let you know that we are approaching "class full" status. Given your current position on the waitlist, it is exceedingly unlikely that you will receive an offer of admission this year. While this is difficult news to share, our feeling was that you would likely prefer to be informed early so that you may move on with plans for this coming year. Your scores will be available for viewing after the first day of class, and I hope you will consider re-applying next year."

 

Just wanted to let y'all know it's been sent out. I'm disappointed of course, but totally planning on applying again and seeing what happens!

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Cee23 Newbie

Cee23

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Well, I have officially gotten the "you're too low on the waitlist" email:

"I am writing to let you know that we are approaching "class full" status. Given your current position on the waitlist, it is exceedingly unlikely that you will receive an offer of admission this year. While this is difficult news to share, our feeling was that you would likely prefer to be informed early so that you may move on with plans for this coming year. Your scores will be available for viewing after the first day of class, and I hope you will consider re-applying next year."

 

Just wanted to let y'all know it's been sent out. I'm disappointed of course, but totally planning on applying again and seeing what happens!

 

I got the email as well! See you next year :D

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CruiseUC Newbie

CruiseUC

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Yea same here....I cried a little but I guess thats not the end of the world

 

Certainly not the end! I think we all did very well to get to the WL stage, and if this was two years ago where 80% of the WL got accepted (same WL length as this year), or any other year for that matter, most of us would have gotten in. So getting this far is not bad at all, and I would bet you, more than 90% of us waitlisters can get in 1 or 2 more tries.

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CruiseUC Newbie

CruiseUC

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I got it too. I wonder how many people got it :confused:

 

Last year, they sent out the same email on June 9th, (2011 of course), and the bottom 30% were notified. This year, it's more probably more, my guess is anywhere from 40-50%.

 

 

I got the same disappointing email :( I am really annoyed that they won't give us our scores till the first day of classes. I really want the opportunity to improve my application!

 

I know! Last year, they were able to show your scores on UCAN right after you got that email (well maybe it takes a couple of days). So I have no idea why it would take that long to reveal our scores.

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CruiseUC Newbie

CruiseUC

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I got the same e-mail. It's my third time applying, second time waitlisted. Quite disappointed, but will still try again for the next cycle. By the way, can we guess what percentage of the waitlisted applicants received the e-mail today?

 

My guess is 40-50%. But I'm sure we will see an update from the admissions blog tomorrow or sometime this week to confirm.

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CruiseUC Newbie

CruiseUC

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Thanks for your prompt reply. I believe that if we keep trying, we'll eventually attain our goal! :)

 

I am truly believer of what you just said! Couldn't have said it better myself. Medicine is not an exclusive profession, in that it doesn't really weed people out, it just picks people who are ready. And we will be ready next year for sure!

 

I also got the email today. What a letdown

 

I'm surprised that so many PM101's also got the email though. What a roller coaster this has been... I'm not quite ready to go through another application cycle just yet :(

 

Well that's a reflection of how small WL movement has been this year at U of C (or everywhere else in the country for that matter). I almost feel that I almost can't push along any more, but as a mentor of mine once said, when you think you can't, it is often when you must! So we "must" push through, to get to our destination, wherever that might be. Rest easy, and get ready for another roller coaster ride for 2013! (and you just might come out of it alive)

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Holzie.89 Newbie

Holzie.89

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I am truly believer of what you just said! Couldn't have said it better myself. Medicine is not an exclusive profession, in that it doesn't really weed people out, it just picks people who are ready. And we will be ready next year for sure!

 

I just looooove your positive attitude! All the best in the upcoming application cycle! :)

 

Also, just thought I'd share the email I received today stating that class is nearly full but to anticipate movement all the way into mid July...:eek:

 

"I am writing to let you know that this afternoon, many of your fellow applicants received an email from us indicating that due to their position on the waitlist, they were very unlikely to receive an offer of admission this year. We did not want there to be any confusion for you, as you have explicitly not received such an email. Although we are approaching "class full" status, there are still a few unfilled positions, and we anticipate a little bit of late movement to go on through early or even mid July. We will continue to shorten the waitlist further as we have fewer and fewer unspoken for positions, so as not to "leave you hanging" unnecessarily. We are not able to tell you where you currently sit on our now shortened waitlist, but will be in touch as soon as we have anything definitive to report."

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LostLamb Apprentice

LostLamb

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There will always be people who get multiple WL/offers who will play musical chairs until the last moment. Lucky ducks!

 

I just want to give all of you who got the WL regrets email a big e-hug. Take a break from this place and med applications for a while. Return again in mid-late July, renewed and eager to give the process your best effort yet.

 

Take care and happy summer,

LL :)

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mdgwilliams Newbie

mdgwilliams

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Guys -- last year I was wait listed but got a "you're in the remaining top 10" of the wait list. In the end I wasn't offered a position, and I didn't find out until the first day classes started.

 

Not that I'm trying to add misery to an already sad day, but hey I'm almost 30 and still chasing this...don't know why...I guess there's something to be said about having to fight for something with everything you've got. In the end it just makes your victory that much sweeter.

 

My wait continues...

 

I relate very much to Dreaming Windchime. I've applied 3 times and interviewed all 3 times!!!! Once rejected post, twice wait listed...in that order.

 

This is my fifth overall application, but third IP. The first two were to ON schools pre-MCAT. I'm now well over the average "2.9" applications by almost double!

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lazyboy Newbie

lazyboy

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Dr. Walker mentioned in his blog that 40 waitlisters got the offer, another bottom 50 were rejected. That is around 90 waitlisters so far.

 

My previous experiences suggested that close to 160 was waitlisted. My rule of thumb is initially, half of the interviewees get rejected, the rest is either waitlisted or offered. 180 got the offere intitially, the rest is waitlisted, that is where the number 160 comes in. Therefore, that is about 60 to 70 people are still in the waitlist. By early July, he will cut the number to 10 to 15.

 

That is how I would expect U of A to work as well, except, they don't send out any email at all. They interviewed less people, and less people are in the waitlist.

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job Newbie

job

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Dr. Walker mentioned in his blog that 40 waitlisters got the offer, another bottom 50 were rejected. That is around 90 waitlisters so far.

 

My previous experiences suggested that close to 160 was waitlisted. My rule of thumb is initially, half of the interviewees get rejected, the rest is either waitlisted or offered. 180 got the offere intitially, the rest is waitlisted, that is where the number 160 comes in. Therefore, that is about 60 to 70 people are still in the waitlist. By early July, he will cut the number to 10 to 15.

 

That is how I would expect U of A to work as well, except, they don't send out any email at all. They interviewed less people, and less people are in the waitlist.

 

It seems your estimations are a little on the high side. As Dr. Walker said last year, over 2/3 of waitlistees were admitted, then later stated, 80 waitlistees made it in. Simple math would bring the waitlist number to about 120. Seeing as how the trend in U of C is 70+ waitlisters making it in (besides this year, where the current value is at 40), I'd say that the list hadn't really changed much in size. It's safe to assume that the list remains approximately at 120. If anything, Dr. Walker has hinted at more invitations being sent out on day 1 in response to how much the wait list has fluctuated in the past. That being said;

 

40 off the list, 50 eliminated on the list, ~120 on the waitlist, brings the total short list to an approximate ~30 candidates for what is most likely, 3-5 seats that may or may not roll through more 1 candidate offer (On Dr. Walker's blog, he says explicitly there are a "few" seats that haven't been confirmed to date)

 

If that's the case, then Dr. Walker has done the math correctly. Keeping ~30ish candidates on a list for a as few as 3 "unconfirmed" seats is by no means a risky move. However, seeing as how Dr. Walker expects his "class is full" e-mail to be sent out in early-mid july, I'd expect that he predicts offers will at least cycle through 2-3 people. That would mean then technically, the list would still move through about 1/3 of the persons on the shortlist.

 

Also note, Dr. Walker stated that if it doesn't look like the remaining unconfirmed seats will cycle too much, he'll be shortening the list yet again in the coming weeks. The "bulk" of the movement on the shortlist will be offered to IP (unfortunately, I'm a sad OOP still on the list hoping to get in). But that's not to say, that 1-2 OOP may find a way to squeeze into one of the few seats if they cycle through offers enough. Dr. Walker's blog has also stated that OOP scores were concentrated very high, with a few mid, and the remaining very low. Seeing as how the current lowest score for an OOP and IP is more than 1.5 points apart, I'd say he was being quite honest. Ultimately, I'd expect the bottom 10-15 persons to be removed from the shortlist, and the remaining candidates to have a coin-toss's worth of a chance of admittance, and if any OOP remain on that list, that they'll have the same probability of getting in as an IP given that the "lowest" OOPs have already been removed at that point. That's assuming that any OOP are even left on that 2nd shortlist (which it looks like there might be none, or 1 at the most).

 

TL;DR: The initial wait-list was definitely not 160, but perhaps the over acceptances were larger by 10 or so. There should currently be ~30 candidates left on the shortlist, the bulk of who are IP. Maybe 1-2 OOP will get in before the class is full e-mail, depending on how many IPs the few remaining spots cycle through.

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lazyboy Newbie

lazyboy

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I am an optimistic guy. Someone mentioned in Dr. Walker’s blog that the over acceptance is 30, and he replied it was too high, that is why I suggest a number of 10.

Based on the historical trend (except last year, where only 65% of waitlisters get in, this year it may be around 40%), I still think he will maintained a number close to 60, if there is not too much movement by Early July, he will cut it to 10 to 15. Last year, someone gets an offer on July 1. I think the number is somewhere between what you suggest and I suggest.

 

In any event, it is tough for those that are still in waitlist.

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job Newbie

job

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Accepted off the wait list yesterday! Three years in the making!!! I guess I'm an average applicant...or just under. Takes 2.9 applications and I took 3 :P 5 if you include two more when I was an undergrad applying OOP...

 

So you moved and applied as IP this past cycle? How did you go about doing that if you don't mind me asking. Did you do another year of study there, or did you work?

 

Also grats!

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mdgwilliams Newbie

mdgwilliams

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So you moved and applied as IP this past cycle? How did you go about doing that if you don't mind me asking. Did you do another year of study there, or did you work?

 

Also grats!

 

I've always been IP in Alberta the two applications that were OOP were to ON schools. At the time of application I neither had pre-reqs nor MCAT so could only apply to a couple schools in ON. I wrote the MCAT to become eligible for AB schools.

 

Thanks for the grats. :)

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