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Waitlist Poll

LupeFiasco

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4 members have voted

  1. 1. Vote for one of the following options

    • You were waitlisted at McMaster
      38
    • You have accepted your offer of admission to McMaster
      31
    • You have declined your offer of admission to McMaster
      20
    • You have withdrawn yourself from the waitlist at McMaster
      3
    • You have the sudden urge to participate
      62

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LupeFiasco Newbie

LupeFiasco

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I have a good feeling the waitlist will move plenty this year guys. The facebook group only has 81 non-admin members, and western school offers are already out! I can't see it increasing by that much before the 27th (maybe 40-50 more members), so unless there is a large number of students who haven't joined the group/don't have facebook, we are looking at a lot of waitlist movement :eek:.

 

Here are some stats I dug up:

# of users accepting McMaster (for sure)= 20

# of users potentially accepting McMaster = 7

# of users rejecting or removing themselves off the waitlist at Mcmaster = 27

# of users waitlisted = 26 (the only number on the poll I used)

 

N = 80, which is a pretty huge sample size, considering the fact that probably 300ish people are either accepted or on the waitlist.

Roughly 27% of the population, a pretty decent sample from which to infer a trend!

 

Hang in there :D

 

EDIT: Did anyone call Wendy to find out how many were rejected? This number would REALLY help.

 

GREAT JOB!!!!!!!!!!!

 

This is really good work!! Thanks so much for doing it!!!!

 

Those are great looking numbers. However, the facebook group keeps growing and is at 85 non-admins now. The 2013 fb group has 214 members.

 

I think the one BIG thing will be if someone gets accepted off the waitlist BEFORE May 27th. Now that would indicate a lot of waitlist movement more than anything. If that did occur it would likely occur during the earlier part of the week of the 27th, so from May 23rd to May 26th.

 

PS. @Harstur and @inspiring-curmudgeon: Thanks for sticking up for me!! Much appreciated.

 

PPS. inspiring-curmudgeon your name is too long; you shall henceforth be known as "i-c." It's quick, catchy, and gets to the point!

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LupeFiasco Newbie

LupeFiasco

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I have news that might make many of you happy. The AFMC people got back to me and they did make a BIG error.

 

Hello Lupe,

 

I have had a chance to look at the data you are addressing. I think perhaps part of the problem is that you are misinterpreting the year. In the Admissions Requirements publication, the column titled 2008/09 refers to those applicants who were anticipating entry to the MD program in Fall 2008. I know OMSAS uses the 2008/09 applications cycle to refer to those applicants who anticipate entry to the MD program in Fall 2009.

 

There does seem to be some inconsistency in the numbers for 2007/08, and we are looking into it.

 

Next e-mail I can't really copy/paste because of formatting issues but they made an error in the class of 2007/2008. The correct numbers are 164 offered and registered, 72 offers declined. So let me re-paste that chart I had with the right numbers:

 

1999 - 96/40 *** Exhausted Watilist

2000 - 111/22

2001 - 128/48

2002 - 138/39

2003 - 137/54

2004 - 138/55

2005 - 149/93*** Exhausted Waitlist

2006 - 146/75

2007 - 164/72

2008 - 181/79 (Mac website says 183 got in)

 

I expect the offers declined number to at least be in the 80s and maybe even in the 90s as the class size is 203. Once again, can someone contact Wendy and ask how many people are rejected outright post-interview or how much they over-accept by? If they over-accept by 10% odds are pretty good for us waitlisters; not so good if they over-accept by 20%.

 

EDIT: I e-mailed her and she said she can't tell me information about the waitlist.

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LupeFiasco Newbie

LupeFiasco

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With regards to the AFMC publishing newer data they told me "We are still trying to come up with a data sharing agreement with some of the Ontario schools, so at this point we do not have data for 2009 and 2010. Hopefully it will be available soon." I'm sure she's talking about Queen's.

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LupeFiasco Newbie

LupeFiasco

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I have a good feeling the waitlist will move plenty this year guys. The facebook group only has 81 non-admin members, and western school offers are already out! I can't see it increasing by that much before the 27th (maybe 40-50 more members), so unless there is a large number of students who haven't joined the group/don't have facebook, we are looking at a lot of waitlist movement :eek:.

 

Here are some stats I dug up:

# of users accepting McMaster (for sure)= 20

# of users potentially accepting McMaster = 7

# of users rejecting or removing themselves off the waitlist at Mcmaster = 27

# of users waitlisted = 26 (the only number on the poll I used)

 

N = 80, which is a pretty huge sample size, considering the fact that probably 300ish people are either accepted or on the waitlist.

Roughly 27% of the population, a pretty decent sample from which to infer a trend!

 

There are 94 non-admins in the facebook group now; that's an increase of 13 over 3 days. If this pace is maintained, by May 27th there should be around 134 people in the group. However, I don't think the increase will be steady over the next week and a half; I expect the rate of increase to be higher because as the deadline approaches everyone who has an offer has to make a decision sooner rather than later. There are probably quite a few people who are accepted at Mac and waitlisted elsewhere so they are probably waiting the three week period out. This means the facebook group size could be anywhere near 150 or even 160.

 

1999 - 96/40 *** Exhausted Watilist

2000 - 111/22

2001 - 128/48

2002 - 138/39

2003 - 137/54

2004 - 138/55

2005 - 149/93*** Exhausted Waitlist

2006 - 146/75

2007 - 164/72

2008 - 181/79 (Mac website says 183 got in)

 

I expect the offers declined number to at least be in the 80s and maybe even in the 90s as the class size is 203.

 

I think realistically the facebook group will have about 150 members by the May 27th deadline (maybe someone should check in previous threads if they mentioned how large the facebook group was at that point in time last year). That would mean that 53 people get in off the waitlist and if they over-accept by 10% that would mean 73 offers will be declined; that's a little lower than past trends have indicated. I expect the offers declined number to at least be in the mid 80s; so either they over-accept by 20%, resulting in 93 offers declined, or the facebook group will end up having 133 people by May 27th which will result in an offers declined number of 93 as well if they over-accept by 10%. But in the latter scenario, 73 people will get in off the waitlist: I think this is more likely.

 

Then there is also the issue of people who were on the waitlist who removed themselves off of it.

 

Speculation?

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gg1987 Newbie

gg1987

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Urghh so much conjecture and stipulation. I wish I didn't have a boring office job, which forces me to check the forum a billion times a day. If I were a deep sea diver, I'm sure the time would be passing much faster... I've never been anxious for summer to hurry along. *sigh*

 

This post is useless but I must vent somehow.

 

But: Thanks Lupe for giving us updates and theories! I appreciate it..

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NRE Newbie

NRE

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Urghh so much conjecture and stipulation. I wish I didn't have a boring office job, which forces me to check the forum a billion times a day. If I were a deep sea diver, I'm sure the time would be passing much faster... I've never been anxious for summer to hurry along. *sigh*

 

This post is useless but I must vent somehow.

 

But: Thanks Lupe for giving us updates and theories! I appreciate it..

 

gg1987 I too work in an office and despite my vow to move on with my (very busy) life, i still check this forum at least 3x/day. I confess. And Lupe and others have made for very interesting reading, thanks!!!! Again, good luck to all these great waitlisters, you're all grand!

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LupeFiasco Newbie

LupeFiasco

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If you average out the AFMC data you get 138.8 average seats and 57.7 average offers declined. If you divide 138.8 by 57.7 you get 2.4.

 

2.4 is the key number here because it should allow us to predict the offers declined number for this year. We know that 203 students will be in the class this year and if you divide that by 2.4 you get 84.6, meaning there will be about 85 offers declined this year. This calculation is accurate for the older years but less accurate for the more recent years by about 2-6 so the offers declined number will likely be around 90 this year.

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Medlor2010 Newbie

Medlor2010

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Interesting indeed. Now, if we take that 90, and divide it by pi, then multiply it by the root of the sum total mean of each digit of all Canadian physicians' social security numbers, you arrive at Obama's average bowling score.

 

Coincidence?

 

I think not.

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gg1987 Newbie

gg1987

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Interesting indeed. Now, if we take that 90, and divide it by pi, then multiply it by the root of the sum total mean of each digit of all Canadian physicians' social security numbers, you arrive at Obama's average bowling score.

 

Coincidence?

 

I think not.

 

lol too funny.

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LupeFiasco Newbie

LupeFiasco

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Past threads indicate facebook is NOT a good measure of class size by any means.

 

Also, one fellow from UofT got in off the waitlist. Considering that they over-accept, that is great news for UofT waitlisters. I think more people are declining their UTM offers as they'd prefer to be in Toronto. This is not good for us "other" waitlisters as those who are rejecting the UofT offers are accepting elsewhere...

 

EDIT: When people on the waitlist start getting offers of acceptance, can they post the timestamp of their initial e-mail indicating that they were waitlisted on May 6th. The reason I ask is because those who were accepted received an e-mail a few minutes before the waitlisters. I'm sure Wendy had to send out three batches of e-mails (accepted/waitlisted/rejected) so there was definitely a time-lag there but I'm just wondering if the timestamp of the initial e-mail indicates your position on the waitlist. This theory has been postulated before on numerous older threads but no one has ever really got data on it. I know people will say the timesamp is inaccurate because of the different Webmail clients and the servers and what not, but could you please post your timestamp whenever it is anyone of you gets accepted. It wll be much appreciated now and for future years as well!

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LupeFiasco Newbie

LupeFiasco

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Didn't U of T send out waitlist offers first last year as well?

I think mac might start dipping into the waitlist soon

 

Historically, Mac has VERY RARELY offered waitlisted applicants acceptances prior to the May 27th deadline. Even Wendy said that only 2 offers went out before the deadline last year.

 

Another issue is that once people get an offer off the waitlist they have 2 weeks to respond whereas other schools give people 1 week to respond; so the Mac waitlist traditionally moves late and slow.

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