May 12 Countdown Thread 2020

[James Nystead]

1 minute ago, MDLD said:

ugh i hate all this. I have a button and I really don't want a regional campus. 

Would you rather be randomized to reject tho? Few really want regional campuses first choice (those that do always get them obviously) but all will come to accept and even love it 

[MDLD]

Just now, Anon_9 said:

Was just going to suggest that but I feel like we are thinking about this way too deeply guys. This button is most likely meaningless

i'm hoping so going to have nightmares about this button for the next two days

[James Nystead]

I feel like this thread rn is group therapy for Mac applicants for both the button and the lottery

[Anon_9]

1 minute ago, MDLD said:

i'm hoping so going to have nightmares about this button for the next two days

Same man same 

[lizaloo223]

2 minutes ago, Anon_9 said:

Same man same 

Yea I feel like trying to figure out some logic and reasoning in this time of uncertainty (covid, lottery everything lol) rally helps. Even if the button is likely meaningless, trying to "solve it" is kinda therapeutic lmao 

[MDLD]

4 minutes ago, William Osler said:

Would you rather be randomized to reject tho? Few really want regional campuses first choice (those that do always get them obviously) but all will come to accept and even love it 

yeah by no means if I don't get anywhere i would take it in a heart beat. Just have family and relationships in hamilton. So it was the perfect match in many ways.

[James Nystead]

1 minute ago, lizaloo223 said:

Yea I feel like trying to figure out some logic and reasoning in this time of uncertainty (covid, lottery everything lol) rally helps. Even if the button is likely meaningless, trying to "solve it" is kinda therapeutic lmao 

Load clown memes if button = reject or meaningless

[MedicineLCS]

Since when are applicants given their "first choice" campus based on ranking? We were all sent an email explicitly saying that campus selection is by lottery (sorry for triggering anyone) "if one campus is undersubscribed". 

Quote

In the event that one or more campuses are under-subscribed, a lottery will be run to determine which applicants will receive their second or possibly even their third choice of campus. 

I suppose they could weigh their lottery odds by ranking, but to me, it really does sound like campus selection comes down to chance/your preference helps it. Which makes sense in evenly distributing applicants. 

[Anon_9]

My friend who said that it's definitely a meaningless glitch said that the error probably "maxed out" before it could affect the rest of the mac applicants (whatever that means). It could just be that for some reason, the code that is supposed to "reveal" the button got accidentally switched on just (maybe a typo or smtg) and only some mac applicants are seeing it because it maxed out before it could appear for the rest of the applicants. We can't say for certain that only average applicants are seeing the button (hence the lottery peeps) and high applicant non-buttoners are in the top 100 because so many non-buttoners have stats on all areas of the spectrum and some buttoners have very high stats.

[JayKay]

The spotted post comments are some of the dumbest I have ever seen. 
 

as for the choosing the top 206 applicants based on pre-interview formula, I think the reason I wouldn’t want them to do it is because it would result in a class with a skewed GPA and CARS. I think the purpose of randomly selecting is to match the stats of the current MD class. From a strict statistical point of view I understand. From an applicant perspective I really would have them used 70% Casper or just not have told us it was a lottery. 

[MDLD]

1 minute ago, Anon_9 said:

My friend who said that it's definitely a meaningless glitch said that the error probably "maxed out" before it could affect the rest of the mac applicants (whatever that means). It could just be that for some reason, the code that is supposed to "reveal" the button got accidentally switched on just (maybe a typo or smtg) and only some mac applicants are seeing it because it maxed out before it could appear for the rest of the applicants. We can't say for certain that only average applicants are seeing the button (hence the lottery peeps), because so many non-buttoners have stats on all areas of the spectrum.

im just going to belive this becuase it makes me ldea stressed out. Thank you friend for me. 

Do you think that it could do by alphabetical order of who got effected first? My last name is at the begining of the alphabet and my first is in the middle.

[James Nystead]

Lets just all believe button = meaningless and move on with our lives till then

[lizaloo223]

3 minutes ago, Anon_9 said:

My friend who said that it's definitely a meaningless glitch said that the error probably "maxed out" before it could affect the rest of the mac applicants (whatever that means). It could just be that for some reason, the code that is supposed to "reveal" the button got accidentally switched on just (maybe a typo or smtg) and only some mac applicants are seeing it because it maxed out before it could appear for the rest of the applicants. We can't say for certain that only average applicants are seeing the button (hence the lottery peeps) and high applicant non-buttoners are in the top 100 because so many non-buttoners have stats on all areas of the spectrum and some buttoners have very high stats.

 

1 minute ago, MDLD said:

im just going to belive this becuase it makes me ldea stressed out. Thank you friend for me. 

Do you think that it could do by alphabetical order of who got effected first? My last name is at the begining of the alphabet and my first is in the middle.

But all the button people with high stats didn't get interviews at Ottawa or other Casper schools....

but then again by all I mean like 3 people so hardly conclusive data XD 

[James Nystead]

4 minutes ago, JayKay said:

or just not have told us it was a lottery. 

I respect Mac for sticking to their word and being transparent pre D-Day. HOWEVER, I do not respect them for just throwing their hands in the air and not arranging a virtual interview when every other school in the country managed to do so and relying on statistics

[Anon_9]

1 minute ago, MDLD said:

im just going to belive this becuase it makes me ldea stressed out. Thank you friend for me. 

Do you think that it could do by alphabetical order of who got effected first? My last name is at the begining of the alphabet and my first is in the middle.

Who knows haha, my last name is mid-early in the alphabet, first name is middle.

2 minutes ago, William Osler said:

Lets just all believe button = meaningless and move on with our lives till then

Yeah that's what I am planning on doing. I keep coming back to this thread in case one of you all cracked the code or something crazy is revealed LOL... I think we all just need to take a LONG nap and wake up Monday evening. See you all then.

[James Nystead]

Just now, Anon_9 said:

Yeah that's what I am planning on doing. I keep coming back to this thread in case one of you all cracked the code or something crazy is revealed LOL... I think we all just need to take a LONG nap and wake up Monday evening. See you all then.

This thread was honestly such a roller coaster ride. By the way, everyone should stop responding on page 69 for the memes

[James Nystead]

Is anyone's first choice school Mac anymore? (If so, why?) Has the lottery and cancellation of MMI changed your perspective on them?

[hehe123]

1 minute ago, William Osler said:

Is anyone's first choice school Mac anymore? (If so, why?) Has the lottery and cancellation of MMI changed your perspective on them?

Possible reasons:
- proximity to family (existing housing in hamilton, etc...)
- familiarity (undergrad at mac, knows researchers/faculty, community, etc...)
- 3 year
- couples avoiding long distance relationships
- only offer
- pbl
- for the memes

[MDLD]

and now there is a meme... 

 

[fingerscrossed2020]

To add another theory, based on the assumption that button=offer: I agree that those with the button are those who were randomized to offer, and the high stats/top 100 people haven't been released yet.

One of the issues with the lottery is that it could introduce transparency issues—there's room for people to be preferentially chosen (based on connections, etc.) and it be justified as 'lottery.' Super unlikely, but some could make the argument. Mac could've asked a third party, i.e. OMSAS in this case, to randomize applicants to an offer and then send that data back to them. That way, they aren't involved with the lottery offer component, at least. In the process of OMSAS selecting those who would receive an offer based on the lottery, they might've triggered the appearance of The Button. 

That could explain the range of stats in the button group, and why high stats people with interviews to CASPer schools don't have them—because Mac has the list of top 100 and OMSAS wasn't involved in generating that list. I also feel like OMSAS isn't made to determine 'top 100' since they'd have to compile and standardize so many scores. 

I strongly agree that coming up with theories is therapeutic haha thank goodness for this thread

Edit: I know a couple high-stats people without buttons who didn't rank Hamilton as their top choice, so that's another reason I don't think button=regional campus

[ejvrei]

(I'm so sorry to continue this thread when it may be slowing down... I just read through these)

I just want to add that I am one of the buttons with 130 CARS and 3.9+ GPA (rejected from Ottawa though so who knows about CASPer but I thought it was relatively fine?) and my first choice campus was a regional campus...

[:((]

1 hour ago, wowfactor said:

I divided you guys into 3 groups. 

1. People with Button

GPA 3.6 / 130 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 125 - BUTTON

GPA 3.79 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.75 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.85 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.91 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.92 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.90 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.91 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.95 / 130 (did not apply to Casper-heavy school) - BUTTON

GPA 3.85 / 131 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 130 (R from UOttawa) - BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 130 (R from UOttawa) - BUTTON

 

2. People without Button with higher stats (GPA 3.95 + OR /AND CARS 129+)

GPA 3.98 / 132 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 130 - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 131 - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 4.0 / 131 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.95 / 131 - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 129 - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 4.0 / 129 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 130 - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 3.98 / 130 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 129 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 129 - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 130 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 130 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 132 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.95  / 130 - NO BUTTON

 

3. People without Button with similar stats with people with Button

GPA 3.87 / 125 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 128 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.84 / 132 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.89 / 129 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.90 / 129 - NO BUTTON

The button should mean something, and I am really excited to see which one (group 1 or 3 ) will be accepted at Mac with group 2. Every one of us must be curious about it, so let's add button/no button on the acceptance/ rejection thread. 

I have the button as well, 3.87/128

[James Nystead]

5 minutes ago, fingerscrossed2020 said:

To add another theory, based on the assumption that button=offer: I agree that those with the button are those who were randomized to offer, and the high stats/top 100 people haven't been released yet.

One of the issues with the lottery is that it could introduce transparency issues—there's room for people to be preferentially chosen (based on connections, etc.) and it be justified as 'lottery.' Super unlikely, but some could make the argument. Mac could've asked a third party, i.e. OMSAS in this case, to randomize applicants to an offer and then send that data back to them. That way, they aren't involved with the lottery offer component, at least. In the process of OMSAS selecting those who would receive an offer based on the lottery, they might've triggered the appearance of The Button. 

That could explain the range of stats in the button group, and why high stats people with interviews to CASPer schools don't have them—because Mac has the list of top 100 and OMSAS wasn't involved in generating that list. I also feel like OMSAS isn't made to determine 'top 100' since they'd have to compile and standardize so many scores. 

I strongly agree that coming up with theories is therapeutic haha thank goodness for this thread

Edit: I know a couple people who would fit into the 'high stats' category who didn't rank Hamilton as first, so that's another reason I don't think button=regional campus

This is a great explanation for why mid-range stats applicants have the button instead of regional campus explanation

Still leaning that its meaningless, but interesting theory tho

[MDLD]

9 minutes ago, fingerscrossed2020 said:

To add another theory, based on the assumption that button=offer: I agree that those with the button are those who were randomized to offer, and the high stats/top 100 people haven't been released yet.

One of the issues with the lottery is that it could introduce transparency issues—there's room for people to be preferentially chosen (based on connections, etc.) and it be justified as 'lottery.' Super unlikely, but some could make the argument. Mac could've asked a third party, i.e. OMSAS in this case, to randomize applicants to an offer and then send that data back to them. That way, they aren't involved with the lottery offer component, at least. In the process of OMSAS selecting those who would receive an offer based on the lottery, they might've triggered the appearance of The Button. 

That could explain the range of stats in the button group, and why high stats people with interviews to CASPer schools don't have them—because Mac has the list of top 100 and OMSAS wasn't involved in generating that list. I also feel like OMSAS isn't made to determine 'top 100' since they'd have to compile and standardize so many scores. 

I strongly agree that coming up with theories is therapeutic haha thank goodness for this thread

Edit: I know a couple high-stats people without buttons who didn't rank Hamilton as their top choice, so that's another reason I don't think button=regional campus

how many is a couple... just wondering

[MedicineLCS]

16 minutes ago, fingerscrossed2020 said:

To add another theory, based on the assumption that button=offer: I agree that those with the button are those who were randomized to offer, and the high stats/top 100 people haven't been released yet.

I'll preface my point by repeating that speculation is pointless (but it does pass the time!). That being said. 

The % of buttons in the thread has remained consistently between 50-60% for Mac interviewees (32 as of my last count). If there are still a 100 applicants who get offers this percentage skyrockets. Even if you believe in response bias/a more competitive pool (which I do) that would be extremely high for first round offers. 

The whole "high CARS/GPA=top 100" is missing that CASPer makes up a solid 1/3rd of the preinterview score. It's perfectly possible that the majority consists of people with high-mid stats (130+, 3.8+) who really nailed CASPer. At the same time, it's possible the person with the 4.0/132 bombed CASPer (comparatively) and was carried to an interview on their stats largely. Before making theories it's worth checking the assumptions, which I don't think are valid. 

I did something similar to the stats grouping previously posted, and I can tell you, when you sort by GPA or CARS score it's not "no button" from the top to some random place in the middle where they shop up. Buttons pop up, randomly seemingly, up and down the range of possible scores reported. Someone with a 132 has a button. Someone with a 4.0 has the button. Both are not slouches in the other number. Add in self-reported scores bias and it's quite apparent that it's all over the range. Add in a MASSIVE CASPer black box and I think making theories is pointless. The button is tied to acceptances in the past and in videos, we'll see if that's true on May 12th.