May 12 Countdown Thread 2020

[kreedz]

Anyone checking this thread then logging into OMSAS even though you know nothing will change then coming back to the thread, then going back to OMSAS like 40 seconds later and logging in for no reason again

[deedee908]

Just now, kreedz said:

Anyone checking this thread then logging into OMSAS even though you know nothing will change then coming back to the thread, then going back to OMSAS like 40 seconds later and logging in for no reason again

yes

[reginageorge]

Just now, kreedz said:

Anyone checking this thread then logging into OMSAS even though you know nothing will change then coming back to the thread, then going back to OMSAS like 40 seconds later and logging in for no reason again

looool yes

[brattatat]

I am a numbers guy (and also bored) so I am going lay out some stats to bring more light to the Mac button situation.

There are 552 applicants, x (around 10 usually) indigenous applicants who will be assessed separately, 552-10, 542. 

The top 100 applicants pre-interview are guaranteed to receive the offer. 542-100, 442 unfortunate souls are put into the lottery.

Mac admits 205-ish students, and over-offers initially by around 25, so it will send out 230-100= 130 offers initially though the initial lottery. 

130/442= 29.4% will get in through the initial lottery.  Consequently, 312/442 70.59% will be on the waitlist or rejected. 

The mean CARS score and GPA is 129/3.86 usually, so a 131/132 and 3.97+, and a good casper, indicated via Manitoba or Ottawa invite, would mean these applicants would very likely be in the top 100 category. 

As someone in a friend group with multiple near perfect stats (3.97+, 131/132 Cars) + Casper-heavy invites, none of them have a button. The people with non-perfect stats either have the button or don't have it. 

This forum is overrepresented by a huge margin of people that HAVE the button with average stats vs people who DONT have the button with average stats.

As such, the 3:7 split through the lottery is shown through the responses of people on this forum.

However, if you add the "non button" groups up, they are a tad bit lower than the "button" group. 130+100 = 230 offers, compared to 312 WL/Rejections, is the exact distribution (barring the small sample size) of the distribution of non-button (average+amazing stats) vs button (average stats in general). 

Finally, Mac would definitely not send two different offer lists at different times to OMSAS, and with the predominant hypothesis on this thread being "Lottery offers" went out first, I disagree by just looking at the vast number of people WITH the button.

TLDR There are WAY too many people with the button for it to be an initial lottery offer, it means something else (or nothing). 

[SoftTings]

7 minutes ago, brattatat said:

I am a numbers guy (and also bored) so I am going lay out some stats to bring more light to the Mac button situation.

There are 552 applicants, x (around 10 usually) indigenous applicants who will be assessed separately, 552-10, 542. 

The top 100 applicants pre-interview are guaranteed to receive the offer. 542-100, 442 unfortunate souls are put into the lottery.

Mac admits 205-ish students, and over-offers initially by around 25, so it will send out 230-100= 130 offers initially though the initial lottery. 

130/442= 29.4% will get in through the initial lottery.  Consequently, 312/442 70.59% will be on the waitlist or rejected. 

The mean CARS score and GPA is 129/3.86 usually, so a 131/132 and 3.97+, and a good casper, indicated via Manitoba or Ottawa invite, would mean these applicants would very likely be in the top 100 category. 

As someone in a friend group with multiple near perfect stats (3.97+, 131/132 Cars) + Casper-heavy invites, none of them have a button. The people with non-perfect stats either have the button or don't have it. 

This forum is overrepresented by a huge margin of people that HAVE the button with average stats vs people who DONT have the button with average stats.

As such, the 3:7 split through the lottery is shown through the responses of people on this forum.

However, if you add the "non button" groups up, they are a tad bit lower than the "button" group. 130+100 = 230 offers, compared to 312 WL/Rejections, is the exact distribution (barring the small sample size) of the distribution of non-button (average+amazing stats) vs button (average stats in general). 

Finally, Mac would definitely not send two different offer lists at different times to OMSAS, and with the predominant hypothesis on this thread being "Lottery offers" went out first, I disagree by just looking at the vast number of people WITH the button.

TLDR There are WAY too many people with the button for it to be an initial lottery offer, it means something else (or nothing). 

Do you have any alternative hypothesis of what the button could be based on the numbers?

I feel like virtually none of the top GPA/MCAT applicants receiving a button makes it seem like it means something. It seems incredibly unlikely statistically that none of the ~10 stats posted had a button

[brattatat]

2 minutes ago, SoftTings said:

Do you have any alternative hypothesis of what the button could be based on the numbers?

I feel like virtually none of the top GPA/MCAT applicants receiving a button makes it seem like it means something. It seems incredibly unlikely statistically that none of the ~10 stats posted had a button

Honestly I don't, I just laid the numbers out to make it easier for everyone to interpret the data. I agree that the best applicants don't have the button for sure but I also know that Mac would never make multiple offer lists, so I personally think the button was a very weird glitch with no meaning...

[James Nystead]

11 minutes ago, brattatat said:

 I personally think the button was a very weird glitch with no meaning...

I feel like you will be vindicated very shortly

[James Nystead]

28 minutes ago, kreedz said:

Anyone checking this thread then logging into OMSAS even though you know nothing will change then coming back to the thread, then going back to OMSAS like 40 seconds later and logging in for no reason again

Thats how we discovered the button in the first place! Soilder on sir

[JigsawMD]

I just find it weird that it would only affect students with a McMaster interview, if it in fact were a meaningless glitch (wouldn't it affect people randomly)?

Plus, if the button = lottery, were students only picked a few business days before offer release date? I find that a little hard to believe.

It's quite possible that both buttoners and non buttoners will be given offers, but not that they indicate top 100 vs. lottery picks. 
 

[medicallyricalmiracle]

14 minutes ago, brattatat said:

Honestly I don't, I just laid the numbers out to make it easier for everyone to interpret the data. I agree that the best applicants don't have the button for sure but I also know that Mac would never make multiple offer lists, so I personally think the button was a very weird glitch with no meaning...

your logic makes sense but relies on the assumption that the sample of people who responded to the poll is representative of all interviewees. i feel like the excitement of having a button would make button-havers more likely to respond to the poll.

there is also one glaring piece of the puzzle: the fact that the reset button is only meant to show up for those that have an offer; it's not supposed to show up for all of us on May 12th 

these are counter-arguments, but anyone's guess is as good as mine

[mdhopefullyidk]

On 5/10/2020 at 8:32 PM, brattatat said:

Honestly I don't, I just laid the numbers out to make it easier for everyone to interpret the data. I agree that the best applicants don't have the button for sure but I also know that Mac would never make multiple offer lists, so I personally think the button was a very weird glitch with no meaning...

.

[brattatat]

On 5/10/2020 at 9:49 PM, supadupafly said:

your logic makes sense but relies on the assumption that the sample of people who responded to the poll is representative of all interviewees. i feel like the excitement of having a button would make button-havers more likely to respond to the poll.

there is also one glaring piece of the puzzle: the fact that the reset button is only meant to show up for those that have an offer; it's not supposed to show up for all of us on May 12th 

these are counter-arguments, but anyone's guess is as good as mine

.

[medicallyricalmiracle]

9 minutes ago, brattatat said:

Yea that's fair, but I wouldn't put it past McMaster to give a random/wrong list to OMSAS LOL

ugh don't get me started. i swear if one of the ontario schools pulls an error like that on Tuesday I'm suing 

[SoftTings]

Possible theory: Button = waitlist?

1. It doesn't make sense that all offers have buttons, since then at least some of the people with top stats would have it

2. It doesn't make sense (in my opinion) that the button is meaningless, because again, what is the statistical likelihood that nobody with top top stats gets the button?

3. The proportion of buttons seems too high to be only lottery selections, since that would just be approx 130/550 people. Also why would lottery-selected applicants show up differently than top 100-selected applicants in OMSAS

 

I think the waitlist option kind of makes sense. Let's say 230/550 applicants get the initial offer, then anywhere from ~100-320 could be waitlisted (with 320 only being an option if nobody gets flat out rejected, and rather it's bad waitlists like Ottawa).

These numbers seem more in line with the amount of buttons, and explains why clear top stats applicants did not receive it. Waitlists would also show up differently on OMSAS than acceptances, so it makes sense the button glitch only appears for these people. Lastly, and I'm not sure about this one, do people who are on waitlists have the option to remove themselves from the waitlist? Because if so, that would require some action on OMSAS, which could explain why they have the option to edit their responses.

 

Not sure if this is totally out there, but I think it makes at least some sense based on the evidence we have, and I haven't seen it suggested

[mdhopefullyidk]

2 minutes ago, SoftTings said:

Possible theory: Button = waitlist?

1. It doesn't make sense that all offers have buttons, since then at least some of the people with top stats would have it

2. It doesn't make sense (in my opinion) that the button is meaningless, because again, what is the statistical likelihood that nobody with top top stats gets the button?

3. The proportion of buttons seems too high to be only lottery selections, since that would just be approx 130/550 people. Also why would lottery-selected applicants show up differently than top 100-selected applicants in OMSAS

 

I think the waitlist option kind of makes sense. Let's say 230/550 applicants get the initial offer, then anywhere from ~100-320 could be waitlisted (with 320 only being an option if nobody gets flat out rejected, and rather it's bad waitlists like Ottawa).

These numbers seem more in line with the amount of buttons, and explains why clear top stats applicants did not receive it. Waitlists would also show up differently on OMSAS than acceptances, so it makes sense the button glitch only appears for these people. Lastly, and I'm not sure about this one, do people who are on waitlists have the option to remove themselves from the waitlist? Because if so, that would require some action on OMSAS, which could explain why they have the option to edit their responses.

 

Not sure if this is totally out there, but I think it makes at least some sense based on the evidence we have, and I haven't seen it suggested

This makes sense but apparently OMSAS doesn’t have anything to do with waitlists. They only post offers, waitlists are dealt with directly by the school supposedly. And then when spots open up they contact OMSAS to have an offer appear on someone’s application.

Someone please correct me if I’m wrong!

[chota-don]

I believe people are overlooking the fact that CASPER is worth 33%. The same way a 3.95+, 130+ CARS applicant would need a "good" CASPER to presumably be close to top 100, a 3.95+, 128 CARS, that killed CASPER would probably put him in that same range. We don't know the distributions for each category. I think there would definitely be high GPA, MCATS in the top 100, but seeing high stats without a button does not disprove the button theory to me. They could be just outside the top 100. Regardless , we just have to wait till Tuesday before we can comment on the button.

[SoftTings]

Just now, chota-don said:

I believe people are overlooking the fact that CASPER is worth 33%. The same way a 3.95+, 130+ CARS applicant would need a "good" CASPER to presumably be close to top 100, a 3.95+, 128 CARS, that killed CASPER would probably put him in that same range. We don't know the distributions for each category. I think there would definitely be high GPA, MCATS in the top 100, but seeing high stats without a button does not disprove the button theory to me. They could be just outside the top 100. Regardless , we just have to wait till Tuesday before we can comment on the button.

It's not that we're seeing some high stats applicants without buttons though. Consistently, all the absolute top stats individuals do not have buttons

[lizaloo223]

1 minute ago, chota-don said:

I believe people are overlooking the fact that CASPER is worth 33%. The same way a 3.95+, 130+ CARS applicant would need a "good" CASPER to presumably be close to top 100, a 3.95+, 128 CARS, that killed CASPER would probably put him in that same range. We don't know the distributions for each category. I think there would definitely be high GPA, MCATS in the top 100, but seeing high stats without a button does not disprove the button theory to me. They could be just outside the top 100. Regardless , we just have to wait till Tuesday before we can comment on the button.

I think it's more of the fact that there happens to be NO people with Very high stats that have the button....There should be some people with very high Casper and very high stats. Maybe there's just so few of those people That they're not represented on premed101 yet who knows

[chota-don]

1 minute ago, SoftTings said:

It's not that we're seeing some high stats applicants without buttons though. Consistently, all the absolute top stats individuals do not have buttons

Ok I did not know that

[SoftTings]

Just now, chota-don said:

Ok I did not know that

A few pages back someone compiled and posted stats of everyone who's responded to the button and categorized them

[James Nystead]

18 minutes ago, SoftTings said:

Waitlists would also show up differently on OMSAS than acceptances, so it makes sense the button glitch only appears for these people. Lastly, and I'm not sure about this one, do people who are on waitlists have the option to remove themselves from the waitlist? Because if so, that would require some action on OMSAS, which could explain why they have the option to edit their responses

Waitlists look the exact same as a rejection on OMSAS. OMSAS has no idea if youre waitlisted or not, schools tell them who to offer and they reflect that. You remove  yourself from waitlists by accepting another offer or withdrawing from all offers (going out of province). 

[sprite4524]

.

[MedicineLCS]

18 minutes ago, SoftTings said:

It's not that we're seeing some high stats applicants without buttons though. Consistently, all the absolute top stats individuals do not have buttons

Except this isn't true. I compiled the data in the original spreadsheet, and while the offer % is lower, high stat people are getting buttons as well. Once you add the fact that CASPer is worth 32% and academic factors 64% there is no guarantee that high stat=top 100. Lower numbers do well, but that doesn't prove anything since those could be your CASPer superstars. Confirmation bias is just rolling through this thread. 

	Total	Yes	No	Button %
132	3	1	2	33.33333333
131	5	2	3	40
130	16	7	9	43.75
129	14	10	4	71.42857143
128	6	3	3	50
127 and below	10	8	2	80
	Total	Yes	No	Button %
4	5	1	3	20
3.95-4	32	14	18	43.75
3.9-3.94	7	6	1	85.71428571
3.85-3.89	8	6	2	75
3.8-3.84	2	2	0	100
Below 3.8	5	3	2	60

Anyway, personally, 30+ pages of Mac button talk is enough for me. Hopefully the table shows something interesting. And remember, on the internet every adds +1 to their CARS and rounds their GPA to the nearest highest number they like. 

EDIT. Yes, I know the GPA classes overlap at the top, I did that for clarity to separate the high end. 

[mdhopefullyidk]

3 minutes ago, pureblue said:

We're assuming that OMSAS manually updates offers for applicants and they never know what the applicant list is. What if the OMSAS team never actually receives any list, but on McMaster's end they go and tag each applicant as "offer" or "waitlist"? In that case, it's not implausible that they tag waitlisted applicants as "waitlist" or whatever options might be available and that causes this button to show up?

Yes totally plausible! I just have no idea how OMSAS operates haha. I was assuming they’re totally separate from the schools and receive the offer list but I really don’t have a clue. 

[SoftTings]

6 hours ago, justamom said:

* UPDATED with Proxy Casper Measure *

I divided you guys into 3 groups. 

1. People with Button

GPA 3.58 / 131 - BUTTON 

GPA 3.83 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.92 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.93 /129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.6 / 130 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 125 - BUTTON

GPA 3.79 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.75 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.85 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.91 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.92 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.90 / 128 - BUTTON

GPA 3.91 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 129 - BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 127 - BUTTON

GPA 3.95 / 130 (did not apply to Casper-heavy school) - BUTTON

GPA 3.99 / 129 (did not apply to Casper-heavy school) - BUTTON

GPA 3.85 / 131 - BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 130 (Rejection from UOttawa) - BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 130 (Rejection from UOttawa) - BUTTON

 

2. People without Button with higher stats  (3.95+/130+ OR 3.97+/129+)

GPA 3.98 / 132 (Invitation from UOttawa)- NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 131 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 4.0 / 131(Casper ?) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.95+(?) / 131 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 4.0 / 129 (Casper?)- NO BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

Another GPA 3.98 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.98 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 129 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 4.0 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.97 / 132 (Casper?) - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.95  / 130 (Invitation from UOttawa) - NO BUTTON

 

3. People without Button with similar stats with people with Button

GPA 3.87 / 125 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.96 / 128 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.84 / 132 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.89 / 129 - NO BUTTON

GPA 3.90 / 129 - NO BUTTON

 

 

There are certainly people with great stats and the button. But nobody with as good stats as 3.98/132 or 4.0/131 which are both non-button. There's enough people entered in the lottery that if you stratify everything it might not show up, because then you can't analyze who is an outlier in both MCAT and CASPer combined. Those absolute outliers are non-button without fail

Additionally, the best stats with a button were rejected from Ottawa or did not apply to CASPer heavy schools