May 12 Countdown Thread 2020

[theevilsloth]

Just now, lizaloo223 said:

And who's to say that person with perfect stats would have done well in the MMI? For all we know, the person with lower stats may become a better doctor. Nobody really knows without meeting in person, so maybe a lottery is the best way to ensure everyone has a fair chance.

Mac really doesn't care about giving everyone a fair chance, they care about getting the best med school class possible. 

[SoftTings]

1 minute ago, lizaloo223 said:

And who's to say that person with perfect stats would have done well in the MMI? For all we know, the person with lower stats may become a better doctor. Nobody really knows without meeting in person, so maybe a lottery is the best way to ensure everyone has a fair chance.

The logic that you can't know for certain so you pick randomly doesn't follow. If they believe that the CASPer has validity, which evidently they do, then they will at least make educated guesses on who they accept

It doesn't make sense to tout CASPer as an evidence-based tool only to throw it out the window

[SnowmanTheSWOMEN]

Just now, theevilsloth said:

Mac really doesn't care about giving everyone a fair chance, they care about getting the best med school class possible. 

Am I too naïve believing that they are "working with medical school admissions colleagues across Canada to ensure that your application is assessed fairly?"

[theevilsloth]

Just now, HeyMrSnowman said:

Am I too naïve believing that they are "working with medical school admissions colleagues across Canada to ensure that your application is assessed fairly?"

No, I think that's accurate. A lottery is by definition not an assessment though. 

[lizaloo223]

3 minutes ago, theevilsloth said:

Mac really doesn't care about giving everyone a fair chance, they care about getting the best med school class possible. 

What I mean is that without interviews, we don't know what is "the best quality class". The stats of people with interviews are relatively close enough that before this pandemic, the interview primarily dictated acceptances.  
 

they also used Casper already to weed people out pre-interview so it's not like it was useless

[Psych]

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[theevilsloth]

1 minute ago, lizaloo223 said:

What I mean is that without interviews, we don't know what is "the best quality class". The stats of people with interviews are relatively close enough that before this pandemic, the interview primarily dictated acceptances. 

Yeah thats true, and mac doesn't know what "the best class" is either. But as a medical school, they're going to at least try to find it, not just waive their hands in the air and give up. This is one of the most numbers / stats heavy schools in Ontario, I seriously doubt that they will completely change their mission now. 

[SnowmanTheSWOMEN]

I bet $3 that Mac didn't use a lottery

[ontariopremed]

29 minutes ago, SoftTings said:

I find it hard to imagine Mac doing a lottery system because of the uproar that would cause. I mean, if that was something they were upfront about from the beginning then sure. But springing that on all the applicants as acceptances are being sent out would probably cause mass chaos

Keep in mind, we a) don't know what the button means, and b) those with excellent stats may have met the threshold for interview without a great CASPer, but it's not enough for an offer. There's still that huge black box, and CASPer could be weighted as 70% (like the interview normally is) for all we know

agreed with all of your points - specifically B 

[Psych]

5 minutes ago, lizaloo223 said:

What I mean is that without interviews, we don't know what is "the best quality class". The stats of people with interviews are relatively close enough that before this pandemic, the interview primarily dictated acceptances.  
 

they also used Casper already to weed people out pre-interview so it's not like it was useless

Although it will definitely be harder to tell who is the "best quality class" without an interview, it's not necessarily impossible either. What they originally said is that they were going to use statistics to examine what stats tend to predict MMI performance, which makes more sense to me than a lottery. As well, not even interview performance can necessarily predict how good of a physician you'll be- interviewing really is a skill just like anything else that can be improved with practice, and a good interview doesn't necessarily mean you'll be a good doctor

[lizaloo223]

The most obvious and simple method would be to simply reweigh Casper. Since we don't know how heavily Ottawa weighs Casper, there's a chance that people with very high stats just didn't do as well on Casper? This whole thing is very odd 

[James Nystead]

$5 bet - 70% CASPer 15% GPA 15% CARS

[seewhathappens]

Keep in mind there are plenty of very competent doctors in hospitals now, who applied in the 80s, with like 3.5 GPAs, got in with no interview, and are now faculty at the country's top hospitals/universities.  Stats are not be all/end all of what makes a great doc.  The reason these massive stats are important now, is to somehow thin the pool of applicants from a massive amount (5000+ apps) to ~200 spots.  4.00/532 doesn't by default make you a great doctor, it just makes you stand out in a crowd.

[lizaloo223]

3 minutes ago, Psych said:

Although it will definitely be harder to tell who is the "best quality class" without an interview, it's not necessarily impossible either. What they originally said is that they were going to use statistics to examine what stats tend to predict MMI performance, which makes more sense to me than a lottery. As well, not even interview performance can necessarily predict how good of a physician you'll be- interviewing really is a skill just like anything else that can be improved with practice, and a good interview doesn't necessarily mean you'll be a good doctor

Yea I completely agree, I was just pointing out a rationale for perhaps using a lottery. I really hope they found a better method of assessment.

[sprite4524]

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[BernieMac]

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[RejectedAgain]

10 minutes ago, lizaloo223 said:

What I mean is that without interviews, we don't know what is "the best quality class". The stats of people with interviews are relatively close enough that before this pandemic, the interview primarily dictated acceptances.  
 

they also used Casper already to weed people out pre-interview so it's not like it was useless

Before the pandemic we were in agreeance that MMI correlates with physician competence. They have been operating on that belief forever. There is no MMI but it would be lazy if you didn't attempt to find that correlation else where (thats what they are asking other schools about I think). 
 

[lizaloo223]

Just now, pureblue said:

What about the multiple people who received OOP interviews at Manitoba that have no button? You need a superb CASPer score as an OOP. Also, Mac OOP applicants need a high CASPer.

Yea exactly that's what's confusing....if the formula was clear cut, it should be pretty easy to determine the relative weighting. Reweighting Casper seems like a good idea, so why didn't they do that? Or maybe they did and some people just didnt receive a button yet but will on Tuesday. We're missing too much information 

[SoftTings]

Theory: Breakdown to get an interview was 33/33/33 for CASPer/CARS/GPA

Breakdown post-interview is typically 70/15/15 for Interview/CARS/GPA

 

If they decide that CASPer correlates best with MMI performance, then maybe they left the same breakdown but replaced interview with CASPer (so CASPer is now 70%)

 

Therefore, individuals with poorer CARS and GPA would actually be more likely to have scored highly on CASPer because they got interviews despite their lower stats. Those with high stats could have gotten interviews even with lower CASPer scores

 

So now that the CASPer is weighed the most heavily, we are seeing a lot of people with poorer stats getting the button

[sprite4524]

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[short_stack]

10 minutes ago, YesIcan55 said:

I revise my original prediction that this thread would hit 40 pages by May 12....now I am making the prediction that it will hit 80 pages my May 12!

This thread is DEFINITELY going down in the Neurotic Premed Antics hall of fame. It's gonna be the biggest thread in all of PM101 history.

If Button Fiasco 2020 doesn't get referenced in next year's Admissions video from Mac, I'll eat my shoe lol

[James Nystead]

Just now, short_stack said:

If Button Fiasco 2020 doesn't get referenced in next year's Admissions video from Mac, I'll eat my shoe lol

The video is made by first years so it def will be

[BernieMac]

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[MedGoldfish]

3 minutes ago, short_stack said:

This thread is DEFINITELY going down in the Neurotic Premed Antics hall of fame. It's gonna be the biggest thread in all of PM101 history.

If Button Fiasco 2020 doesn't get referenced in next year's Admissions video from Mac, I'll eat my shoe lol

Isn't it ironic that out of all the schools, Mac had the longest admissions video but the shortest interview? 

[mdhopefullyidk]

12 minutes ago, pureblue said:

What about the multiple people who received OOP interviews at Manitoba that have no button? You need a superb CASPer score as an OOP. Also, Mac OOP applicants need a high CASPer and the ones that posted in this thread have no button.

I don’t think OOP at Manitoba specifically requires a superb Casper does it? It’s the same formula regardless of IP and OOP to get an interview. You obviously need to be a great applicant but I don’t think that guarantees those people have perfect Caspers